By-elections latest: Boris Johnson blamed for Sunak’s ‘armageddon’ defeat in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire

Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives are “staring defeat in the face” after devastating back to back by-election losses in safe Tory seats.

Polling guru Professor John Curtice said the Conservatives have not faced a slew of such poor by-election results since the run up to the 1997 general election, in which Tony Blair’s Labour won a landslide.

And Sir John warned that without a “dramatic and radical” turnaround, the Conservatives are on course for defeat in the next election, expected in less than a year.

My colleague Archie Mitchell has more:

Alistair Strathern, a former maths teacher, made it a double for Labour on a night in which the party also overturned a Tory majority of almost 20,000 in Tamworth.

He fended off the Conservatives’ Festus Akinbusoye, the Bedfordshire Police and Crime Commissioner, who would have been the latest in a straight run of Tory MPs in the constituency going back to 1931 if he had won.

But the former councillor, who has worked at the Bank of England, also beat the Lib Dem candidate Emma Holland-Lindsay after a fierce campaign.

The Lib Dems had insisted they were the best placed party to win over natural Conservatives and win despite placing third at the last general election, behind Labour.

There had been concerns that the Tories might squeak through on a massively reduced majority because of a split in the anti-Conservative vote. But the Labour victory ended up being by a strong margin on a 44 per cent turnout.

Ms Dorries, the former culture secretary, had held Mid Bedfordshire, a blend of small towns and rural areas, from 2005, winning at the 2019 general election with 60 per cent of the vote.

Ms Dorries announced she would quit with “immediate effect” in protest against not getting a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation list back in June, but took nearly three months to make it official.

There was clear anger in the constituency about the “absentee MP”. She had not spoken in the Commons since early July last year, but found time to present her TalkTV show.

Liberal Democrat deputy leader Daisy Cooper says: “We nearly doubled our share of the vote which would see the Lib Dems win dozens of seats off the Conservatives in a general election.”

“The Liberal Democrats played a crucial role in defeating the Conservatives in Mid Bedfordshire, and we can play a crucial role in getting rid of this Conservative government at the next election,” she told the BBC.

“I’m so proud of Emma Holland-Lindsay and her campaign which convinced thousands of lifelong Conservative voters in the villages of Mid Bedfordshire to switch to the Liberal Democrats.”

The Lib Dems came third in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election, with 9,420 votes.

Shadow cabinet member Peter Kyle dismissed suggestions that it was just a Nadine Dorries effect that led Labour to overturn the Tories in Mid Bedfordshire.

He told the PA news agency that families have been voting Conservative in the constituency for generations, adding: “So for this to happen, it wouldn’t just happen over one thing.

“There is no doubt in my mind that had it just been Nadine Dorries and her neglect to this constituency that the Conservatives would have had a reduced majority, but they would have survived.”

He said that it was “layer upon layer of poor performance” from the government, the “lawbreaking” of ministers, a “failure to deliver on key pledges, and also the “language of hatred and division that’s crept into this Government”.

“All of these things have added up to the fact that this community no longer sees its values aligned with those of the Conservative Party that it’s supported for so long,” he said.

Shadow cabinet member Peter Kyle said that voters saw through the “heat and fury” of the Lib Dems after a fierce campaign.

Mr Kyle, who was the Mid Bedfordshire campaign manager, told the PA news agency: “Don’t mistake action with heat. The Lib Dems made a lot of noise and heat during this campaign, but it never translated into action on the ground.

“We did that the hard way, by earning it. You can’t come in here, make a lot of noise and think you have the right to be taken seriously.”

He said that the Lib Dems had come into the constituency “hammering from the left, hammering from the right” and “coming up with statistics that were completely nonsensical”.

“Voters saw through the Lib Dem heat and fury for what it was,” he added.

Labour has delivered a historic defeat to the Conservatives by winning Mid Bedfordshire for the first time in the constituency’s century-long history.

With the vote triggered by Nadine Dorries’ long-burning resignation, it was the largest majority in terms of votes overturned by the party at a by-election since 1945.

Rishi Sunak’s challenge to turn around his party’s prospects looked even harder when Labour’s Alistair Strathern secured a swing of 20.5 percentage to win by 1,192 votes.

In its 105 years of existence, Labour had never won Mid Bedfordshire. They were 24,664 votes behind the Conservatives at the last general election.

But riding a long wave of high national polling and a certain amount of resentment towards Ms Dorries, Labour upended 92 years of Mid Bedfordshire returning Conservative MPs.

In his victory speech, Mr Strathern said: “Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being underrepresented, they made a decision it was time for a change.

“Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight’s result proves it.”

Sarah Edwards overturned a Conservative majority of more than 19,600 to secure the first Labour victory in the Staffordshire constituency since 2005.

She replaces the disgraced former MP Chris Pincher, who stood down after being found to have drunkenly groped two men last year.

Her Conservative opponent, Andrew Cooper, was ushered out of a side door of Rawlett School in Tamworth seconds after his defeat was confirmed, with Tory staff blocking the exit as he did so, something Ms Edwards described as “disappointing”.

In her speech after her victory was confirmed, Ms Edwards said: “The people of Tamworth have voted for Labour’s positive vision and a fresh start.

“They’ve sent a clear message to Rishi Sunak and the Conservatives that they have had enough of this failed government, which has crashed the economy and destroyed our public services.

“The people of Tamworth have made it clear, it’s time for change.”

Shadow cabinet member Peter Kyle said that Labour had delivered a “political earthquake” to Rishi Sunak’s Conservatives after securing a double by-election win.

Speaking at the Mid Bedfordshire count where he was celebrating with new MP Alistair Strathern, he told the PA news agency: “This is a huge night.

“Make no bones about it, this is a political earthquake that has unfolded here.

“This is the biggest by-election shock in history, it is a political earthquake and it is one that is sending an unignorable message to Westminster and to Rishi Sunak that this country deserves better.”

Labour's Alistair Strathern said his victory in the Mid Bedfordshire by-election had "made history" and sent a "resounding message".

Giving his victory speech, the newest Labour MP said: "Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being under-represented, they made a decision it was time for a change.

"Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight's result proves it."

Labour's victories at Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth mean that swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years - a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history.

Five of the eight swings have occurred in the past four months: Selby & Ainsty (23.7 points from Conservatives to Labour) and Somerton & Frome (29.0 points from Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats) in July; Rutherglen & Hamilton West (20.4 points from the SNP to Labour) earlier this month, and now Mid Bedfordshire (20.5 points) and Tamworth (23.9 points), both from Conservatives to Labour.

The others were Tiverton & Honiton (29.9 points) in June 2022, North Shropshire (34.1 points) in December 2021, and Chesham & Amersham (25.2 points) in June 2021, all from the Conservatives to the Liberal Democrats.

After winning Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire, Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the party will give “Britain its future back”.

"Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they're ready to put their faith in our changed Labour Party to deliver it.

"Voters across Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth and Britain want a Labour government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.

"To those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back."