By-elections latest: Boris Johnson blamed for Sunak’s ‘armageddon’ defeat in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire
Labour could be on course for an even bigger landslide than the one seen under Tony Blair under 1997, polling guru says
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Your support makes all the difference.Sir Keir Starmer has cast himself the heir to Blair after a historic Tory by-election drubbing in which he jubilantly declared Labour was “redrawing the political map”.
The Labour leader said that Tory voters were turning to them because they were “fed up with the decline and despairing of the party they used to vote for”.
The Tories are now staring down the barrel of an unprecedented wipeout after suffering defeats in two fiercely contested by-elections, with huge majorities evaporating overnight following a disastrous few years in which the party has seemingly stumbled from one crisis to another.
Starmers remarks came as polling guru John Curtice said Boris Johnson and Liz Truss were largely to blame for the crushing defeat.
Overturning the biggest majority in British by-election history, Labour took Mid Bedfordshire from the Tories for the first time.
While in Tamworth, the party saw the second biggest swing from the Tories to Labour in a by-election in post-war history.
Meanwhile, former chancellor George Osborne warned the record defeats spell “armageddon” for the Conservatives at the general election.
‘Tories need to focus on issues that matter to voters'
Conservative former justice secretary Sir Robert Buckland says party needs to focus on issues that matter to voters.
He told the BBC: “I think that as Conservatives, we now need to make it very clear what the next five years is going to look like, and that’s what I’m looking for from the prime minister and our leaders.
I’m not looking for academic arguments about issues that are not going to swing voters. I’m looking for serious, grown-up approaches to the issues that really matter - on the economy, on housing, on the future for our young people. We’ve got some good Conservative answers to these issues. Let’s hear them and let’s hear nothing else in the next 12 months.
Can Rishi Sunak turn around by-election loses
The phrase “it’s the economy, stupid” has become a political cliche, but Rishi Sunak has to a large degree pinned his hopes on an improving economic picture.
He will hope that growth picks up, inflation falls and people feel a sense of optimism about the direction of the country.
With discretion over the timing of the general election, he can choose the point he feels it is most likely to result in a Tory win.
But the state of the public finances could restrict chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s ability to deliver a tax-cutting, voter-pleasing budget in the run-up to the election.
And problems with NHS waiting lists and small boat crossings of the English Channel are unlikely to disappear despite promises to deal with them featuring prominently in Mr Sunak’s priorities for government.
What does by-election double whammy mean for Sunak
Rishi Sunak has suffered the loss of two previously safe Tory seats, with Labour securing swings of more than 20 percentage points to take Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire.
As the prime minister approaches the 12-month mark in the job, the defeat cannot be shrugged off as cases of mid-term blues, especially with a general election expected next year.
A series of Tory strongholds have collapsed in by-elections, and worryingly for Mr Sunak they have been spread across the country with different political factors and opponents at play.
Swings of over 20 percentage points have taken place at eight by-elections in the past three years - a pattern that is unprecedented in recent political history.
Seven of those contests have seen the Tories lose seats, four to the Liberal Democrats and three to Labour.
Mr Sunak has to go to the country by January 2025 at the latest, but spring or autumn 2024 are more likely options.
Labour has highlighted the fact that a seat like Tamworth was not even on its target list of constituencies it would need to take to win a general election.
Respected elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the Conservatives were “staring defeat in the face” next year unless there was a dramatic turnaround in the party’s fortunes.
Considering the Tories won in 2019 with a majority of 80, the prospect of a Conservative defeat would represent a seismic shift in British politics in the space of five years.
As Tories downplay by-election results, experts see it as ‘bad news’ ahead of general election
The Conservatives sought to portray the by-elections as mid-term blips, exacerbated by the difficulties surrounding the previous MPs.
But elections expert Professor Sir John Curtice said the two results were “extremely bad news” for the Conservatives and suggested Mr Sunak was on course for general election defeat.
“This isn’t destiny, but it is a pointer and it is a pointer that, unless the Conservatives can fairly dramatically and fairly radically turn things around, then they are in truth staring defeat in the face in 12 months’ time.”
He warned the Tories risked seeing votes drift to Labour on the left and Reform UK on the right.
Reform secured 1,487 votes in Mid Bedfordshire and 1,373 in Tamworth, in both instances more than Labour’s majority over the Conservatives.
Prof Curtice told the BBC: “No government has hitherto lost to the principal opposition party in a by-election a seat as safe as Tamworth.”
He added that the Tories “may get caught in a pincer movement between some of their former Leave voters wandering off to Labour but others going off to Reform UK”.
The Tamworth result echoes Labour’s victory in a by-election in its predecessor constituency South East Staffordshire in 1996.
The Conservatives went into that contest defending a large majority only to see Labour win the seat on a swing of 22.1 percentage points before a general election landslide the following year – a result Sir Keir would dearly like to repeat.
Tory former cabinet minister Sir Robert Buckland said Mr Sunak’s party now needed to focus on the issues that mattered most to voters rather than infighting about who could succeed the party leader.
He told the BBC: “I think that as Conservatives, we now need to make it very clear what the next five years is going to look like, and that’s what I’m looking for from the Prime Minister and our leaders.”
How were the by-elections triggered?
The contests in Mid Beds and Tamworth were triggered by the high-profile departures of the previous Tory MPs.
Former cabinet minister Nadine Dorries quit - eventually - as Mid Bedfordshire’s MP in anger at being denied a peerage in Boris Johnson’s resignation honours list.
In Tamworth, Chris Pincher resigned after being found to have drunkenly groped two men in an “egregious case of sexual misconduct” at London’s exclusive Carlton Club last year - an incident which helped trigger Mr Johnson’s exit from No 10 because of his handling of the situation.
Tory MP: ‘Disappointing… but by-elections are a different beast’
Maria Caulfield said losing both by-elections was “disappointing” but “by-elections are a different beast”.
The Tory MP said voters can “send a message” at by-elections, but suggested the Conservatives could win Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire back in a general election.
She cited Brecon and Radnorshire, which the Tories lost in a by-election weeks before the 2019 general election, before winning the seat back.
“People can safely either not vote or vote for a different party and still keep the government and so it can be a form of a protest vote,” she told Sky News.
She added: “It’s quite usual for a particular party in government to lose by election, and for that not to be the same when it comes to general elections.”
What went wrong for Conservatives?
As Conservative candidate Festus Akinbusoye rushed out BBC asked him what went wrong for Tories in Mid Beds?
He told outlet’s Ben Schofield that it was “democracy”.
‘Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party'
Alistair Strathern said his victory in Mid Beds showed “nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party”.
“Tonight residents across Mid Bedfordshire have made history, after decades of being taken for granted, feeling left behind, being under-represented, they made a decision it was time for a change.
“Nowhere is off limits for this Labour Party and tonight’s result proves it.”
Voters ‘ready to put their faith’ in Labour
Sir Keir Starmer said that the Labour win in Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth show the party “is back in the service of working people”.
“Winning in these Tory strongholds shows that people overwhelmingly want change and they’re ready to put their faith in our changed Labour Party to deliver it.
“Voters across Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth and Britain want a Labour government determined to deliver for working people, with a proper plan to rebuild our country.
“To those who have given us their trust, and those considering doing so, Labour will spend every day acting in your interests and focused on your priorities. Labour will give Britain its future back.”
Tory peer Lord Cruddas: 'Someone should resign'
Conservative peer Lord Cruddas said somebody “at the top” of the party should resign after the double by-election drubbing.
The Boris Johnson ally said: “The dire by-election results for Conservatives means somebody needs to resign. It should start at the top and now!”
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