By-elections latest: Boris Johnson blamed for Sunak’s ‘armageddon’ defeat in Tamworth and Mid Bedfordshire

Tory moderate Robert Buckland said Rishi Sunak was “on the money” with his focus on inflation – but warned against clutching at culture war issues in a lurch to the right.

The ex-cabinet minister told The Independent: “Unless we embrace issues like housing and the tax rates being paid by hard-pressed families then the public are going to say, ‘We’ve given them 13 years, why should we give them more?’

“Focus on economic security. The culture war staff is the hard left versus the far left – it should have nothing to do with us,” Mr Buckland added.

“Colleagues have to trust Rishi Sunak to listen to concerns, rather than going into blind panic. Parties that lose their nerve do not win. We’ve seen triumphalism from Labour – but this is not over. The Conservative party can’t throw in the towel.”

Sir Keir Starmer has denied that he ever backed Israel withholding humanitarian aid from Gaza.

The Labour leader said that food, water and medicines must urgently be allowed in, as he admitted his earlier remarks caused “distress”.

A number of his councillors have resigned over what they perceived as “horrifying” comments that he was “endorsing a war crime”.

In an interview with LBC, Sir Keir had appeared to suggest that Israel has “the right” to withhold energy and water. But Sir Keir argued on Friday that he had intended to say that Israel has the right to defend .

The Labour leader said he wanted to “clarify precisely what I was saying”.

He told broadcasters: “I know that LBC clip has been widely shared and caused real concern and distress in some Muslim communities, so let me be clear about what I was saying and what I wasn’t saying. I was saying that Israel has the right to self-defence, and when I said that right I meant it was that right to self-defence. I was not saying that Israel had the right to cut off water, food, fuel or medicines.”

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer said the party’s winning candidate for Mid Bedfordshire had “not only won” but “made history”.

Appearing alongside Alistair Strathern at the Forest Centre & Millennium Country Park near Bedford, he said: “What a fantastic candidate… He has not only won here, he’s made history here over the past 24 hours. An incredible achievement already.”

Thanking Labour campaigners, he said: “Every vote that you persuaded to come across to us was worth it.

“This is an incredible night in politics, an incredible morning, an incredible result here for so many reasons.

“It is clear that the voters here have turned their back on a failed Tory Government. They’ve had enough of the decline of the last 13 years and they are crying out for change – positive change that the Labour Party can bring them.”

Conservative grandee Dominic Grieve has said the party is “shot to pieces” and the “writing is on the wall” for a loss at the next general election after last night’s double defeat.

The former cabinet minister told The Independent that the public thought of Rishi Sunak as a “decent man” but he was undermined by the legacy of Liz Truss and “charlatan” Boris Johnson – calling them the “architects of disaster”.

He warned Sunak against listening to “people on the Tory right who are the architects of the disaster”. But he said he feared another “lurch to the right” if the party does lose the general election.

Mr Grieve said: “The best-case scenario for the Conservatives is that Sunak pursues sensible policies which create a degree of economic revival. I still doubt that it will be enough to keep the party in power – but it might prevent a complete wipe-out.”

Polling guru Sir John Curtice said Sir Keir Starmer could be on course for an even bigger landslide than the one seen under Tony Blair under 1997.

The elections expert said “these were not ordinary government by-election losses” – pointing out that no government had ever lost as safe a seat as Tamworth.

Prof Curtice said: “The Conservative party faces the serious prospect of losing the next general election heavily – and maybe even more heavily than they did in 1997.”

Tory peer and polling guru Robert Hayward said Rishi Sunak must “keep calm and carry on” by focusing on an attempted economic recovery – urging him not to get pulled into culture war distractions by those on the right.

Lord Hayward told The Independent: “There is no benefit to trying to do all sorts of other things when you have yet to prove you are a competent government. The maxim keep calm and carry on would be the best piece of advice, because the public is still angry about the period between 2020 and 2022 and a period of calm, stable government is what they are looking for.”

He said the by-elections were “an incredibly good pair of results for Labour, no question about that”. But he said the Tories could take some comfort from the low-turnout.

“The swings are huge and that has to be worrying, but the level of switchers appears to be incredibly low,” he said

Following their double-billed defeat in yesterday’s by-elections, The Independent’s chief political commentator John Rentoul will answer questions on what happens next for the Tory party.

If you have a question on the by election fallout, submit it now here, or when he joins you live at 3pm on Friday 20 October for the “Ask Me Anything” event.

You can find out more about the event below:

Sir Keir Starmer said Labour’s win in Tamworth was due to Tory voters being “fed up with the decline” under the Conservative government

Appearing alongside Sarah Edwards, he said: “People told me it was not possible to win this seat in this by-election.”

He added: “I think what you’ve seen here replicates what’s going on across the country. People are fed up to the back teeth with 13 years of decline under this government. They want a fresh start. They want to go forward.”

He said Labour accepted the landmark victory “humbly” and added that there were “Tory voters yesterday who went to the ballot box to vote labour” because they were “fed up” with “the party they used to vote for”.

George Osborne has said losing both the Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth by-elections was “armageddon’ for the Conservative Party.

“Losing both the Tamworth and Mid Beds by-elections is a political earthquake and could mean armageddon for the Tories,” Osborne said speaking on his Political Currency podcast.

A new poll by Redfield and Wilton Strategies has found that Penny Mordaunt is the most likely Tory to replace Rishi Sunak.

The Commons leader – well-known to the public for holding a sword at the King’s coronation – came out on top with 11 per cent when voters were asked who could replace Sunak.

She was followed by chancellor Jeremy Hunt on 9 per cent, “another Conservative MP” on 8 per cent and home secretary Suella Braverman on 7 per cent.