Negotiation is the only way forward to end the war in Gaza

President Joe Biden argued with unusual clarity on Friday that the Israeli government should seek peace. “Indefinite war in pursuit of an unidentified notion of total victory will only bog down Israel in Gaza,” he said. It would have the effect of “furthering Israel’s isolation in the world. That will not bring hostages home. That will not bring an enduring defeat of Hamas, that will not bring Israel lasting security.”

These are not new arguments. The Independent has been making them almost from the start of the Israeli response to the atrocities carried out by Hamas on 7 October. But it is significant that the president of the United States should be making them now.

Just as it is significant that President Biden, rather than Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, should be promoting a peace plan that has been proposed by Israeli negotiators.

This suggests that Mr Netanyahu is keeping the plan at arm’s length, which in turn suggests that he – the most important player in this drama – may not be fully signed up to the proposal.

The plan has a familiar shape. It starts with a ceasefire, the withdrawal of Israeli forces, the release by Hamas of some hostages, the simultaneous release by Israel of Palestinian prisoners, and a surge of aid to Gaza. It would be followed by further negotiations towards a permanent ceasefire, the release of the remaining hostages and the beginning of reconstruction.

It seems likely that, if there is a negotiated ceasefire, it will look something like this. Indeed, elements of the plan have already produced one temporary ceasefire.

Hamas negotiators say that they view the proposal “positively”, and President Biden said: “Hamas says it wants a ceasefire. This deal is an opportunity to prove whether they really mean it.”

He also said: “I’ve urged the leadership in Israel to stand behind this deal, regardless of whatever pressure comes.” This last part was perhaps his most revealing and most Bidenesque comment. The president, as a veteran of a lifetime’s deal-making, knows about “pressure” and the forces that need to align to secure agreement.

At one level, President Biden appears to be urging Mr Netanyahu to resist Israeli public opinion, which supports the war against Hamas. But the real pressure on the prime minister that prevents him making peace is that he knows he will be out of office the moment the fighting is over. He was unpopular with Israeli voters before the war began, and they blame him for the country’s unpreparedness that allowed the Hamas strikes on 7 October, but they are reluctant to countenance a change of leadership while there is a war on.

Mr Biden is under pressure too, of course. He has an election to fight, and a large section of US domestic opinion that feels he has failed to use his influence with the Israeli government to end the bloodshed.

If the president’s visible engagement with the peace talks means that a deal is close, so much the better. Eight months after Hamas unleashed the dogs of war, the Israeli military has neither destroyed their amorphous enemy nor rescued all of the hostages. Negotiation is the only way forward, but the final piece of the jigsaw is still missing: how to ensure that a deal is in Mr Netanyahu’s political interest.