Hopes for a Gaza ceasefire – and wider regional peace – have never felt more distant

In Lebanon, the sky flashed red above the blasted southern neighbourhoods. In Israel, the air raid sirens wailed as rockets flew back. This borderland has now become one of the most volatile fault lines of the region and a potential trigger point for a much wider war.

This morning Israel announced it had sent 100 fighter jets over Lebanon, striking what it said were thousands of rocket launchers that Lebanese militant group Hezbollah had poised to attack.

Hezbollah said it sent over 300 Katyusha rockets and a large number of drones towards military positions in Israel in response to the killing of Fuad Shukr, their top commander that Israel assassinated in a strike in Beirut’s southern suburbs last month – a retaliation the world has been holding its breath for.

Against this exchange of fire, ceasefire talks for the war in Gaza were set to continue today in the Egyptian capital. Representatives from all sides are expected to be there.

Just last week we saw arguably the most intense flurry yet of international diplomacy to bring an end to a rapidly spiralling situation, sparking hope that a deal might be in the running. Top diplomats including British foreign secretary David Lammy, US secretary of state Antony Blinken and the French foreign minister Stéphane Séjourné shuttled between key figures. Lammy warned this was a “dangerous moment for the Middle East”, while Blinken called the talks “maybe the last” opportunity to pull the region back from the brink, free the hostages and secure a ceasefire.

But on Sunday morning, the hopes of imminent end to the intense bloodshed in Gaza – where health officials say 40,000 people have been killed under Israel’s bombardment – and to bring home the remaining 115 people taken hostage since Hamas’s bloody 7 October attacks, seemed ever more distant.

And it raised again the question of whether a ceasefire in Gaza could rein in the conflict between Israel and Lebanon, its backer Iran and the wider region.

In the immediate aftermath, in Israel the opinion is that Hezbollah has launched its retaliation for the killing of its top leader in Beirut, and that rather than this being the moment the region dissolves into total chaos, the cross-border exchange of fire would “return to normalcy”. Hezbollah has said the “first phase” of its attacks is now over.

“The announcement means the end of their operations for this stage, which we see as them politely saying we are looking for a way out ... we would rather avoid a full-scale war,” said Amos Harel, non-resident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution think tank, and an Israeli defence correspondent.

“But business as usual is terrible for both sides – there are 60,000 Israelis not allowed back in their homes. There are double that number on the Lebanese side,” he continued.

The death toll in Lebanon, which was already in the grips of a profound humanitarian crisis before the recent surge in violence, has now reached 133 civilians since last October. Israeli airstrikes in south Lebanon and the Bekaa Valley have resulted in widespread casualties and the destruction of essential infrastructure, according to Action Aid. The ongoing hostilities have displaced around 112,000 people, many of whom are now living in overcrowded and under-resourced host communities.

Ceasefire talks will continue in Cairo, although Harel believes the main obstacle is that leaders from both sides are not interested in a deal.

“There is no real way to pressure [Benjamin] Netanyahu into agreeing to a ceasefire. He is playing for time – he keeps hiding details regarding the deal. He has no interest for political reasons, for the survival of his coalition,” he added.

Jasmine Gamal, a political analyst and former Middle East adviser at the US department of defense, said the attacks demonstrate the futility of the current round of talks at de-escalating tensions. If a breakthrough in negotiations had been imminent it would have been “unlikely that Hezbollah would have jeopardised it with an attack”, she said.

“The continued regional escalation has also highlighted the shortcomings of the Biden administration’s diplomacy vis-a-vis the parties to the conflict,” she added. “Particularly Biden’s failure to exercise any meaningful leverage over prime minister Netanyahu, whose intransigence has frustrated Israeli negotiations and brought the region to the brink of war.”

There is growing pressure on Netanyahu in Israel, where polls suggest rising support for a ceasefire as the Israeli public grow fatigued.

Regional civilian leaders in the north of Israel are furious with the government for not listening to them. They feel “abandoned” and are angry at the lack of additional funds or a solution for those who have evacuated the north.

“Our feelings are that the border of Israel is now 40km further south than it was before the war,” Giora Zaltz, the head of the Upper Galilee Regional Council, told The Independent, following mass evacuations.

“The government is not with us, they are not speaking with us, they are not consulting with us, they are not supporting us. They are ignoring the civilian heads in the north.”

There have been many promises from the US that the ceasefire talks in Gaza would also bring an end to the fighting between Israel and Lebanon. But in the north of Israel, the feeling is that is not the case.

Zaltz believes there needs to be a disconnect between negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza with the situation along the northern front, adding: “The mistake which Hezbollah and Hamas want is that we will connect those two borders. The state of Israel should be dealing with the south separately to the north. The goals should be different.”

This was echoed by Nitzan Peleg, mayor of the lower Galilee municipality, who was more hawkish. He said his region did not think a ceasefire with Gaza was “enough for us” and that a diplomatic solution would just “push it all down the road”. He went as far as to suggest an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon to create a buffer zone – an action which experts believed could trigger a massive regional conflict and untold devastation in Lebanon.

“We saw before 7 October that Hezbollah is on the border all the time pushing forward, we avoided attacking and look what happened,” he said. “That is why we should take this advantage we have now, especially when all the coalition international forces like the US are around us here.”

For now, talks will continue in Cairo, but there is little hope they will bring the region back from the brink.