Israel’s war in Gaza lasting until the US election is a nightmare scenario for Biden

Israeli tanks and armoured cars have been seen near al-Awda mosque in the centre of Rafah, while 45 people were killed in a strike at a camp in the east of the city. This, however, still does not mean that a “major ground operation” in the city is under way, according to the Biden administration.

The massacre at Tel al-Sultan, where many of the victims were children, the elderly and women burnt to death, was “heartbreaking and horrific” said White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby, adding: “There should be no innocent life lost here as a result of this conflict.”

The “red line” for Joe Biden, supposedly, was the killing of civilians in a Rafah operation. On 8 May, he stressed that it had been made clear to Benjamin Netanyahu that “if they [the Israeli military] go into Rafah, I’m not supplying the weapons that they have been using historically to deal with Rafah, to deal with the cities, to deal with that problem”.

The US president, among many other Western leaders, has repeatedly asked Israel not to carry out an offensive into Rafah, where hundreds of thousands of civilians have taken refuge from the carnage that has taken place in the rest of Gaza.

Rishi Sunak has spoken of “deep concern about the prospect of a military incursion into Rafah, given the number of civilians that are sheltering there and the importance of that crossing for aid. Emmanuel Macron has no doubt that “these operations must stop. There are no safe areas in Rafah for Palestinian civilians". Last week, the International Court of Justice ordered Israel to comply with its “obligations” under the Genocide Convention and “immediately halt its offensive” in Rafah.

The Israeli government has continued with the offensive. It has, however, termed what has unfolded a “targeted” ground operation against Hamas fighters and infrastructure in the east of Rafah.

The Biden administration has clung to that line, with the White House spokesperson Kirby insisting: “We have not seen them smash into Rafah, we have not seen them go in with columns and formations in some sort of coordinated manoeuvre against multiple targets on the ground.”

Israel originally planned to deploy two divisions for the Rafah assault but has scaled back from this, according to reports. Military analysts have pointed out there was no need for such a large number of troops for this final phase of the war. The force reduction was a gesture, it seems, to let the US administration save face.

Israel’s aims remain the same. Defence minister Yoav Gallant has stressed that the offensive would continue until Hamas forces in Rafah “and the entire Gaza Strip” were “eliminated”. An Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) spokesperson said: “This is the beginning of our mission to take out the last four Hamas brigades in Rafah. You should be in no doubt about that whatsoever.”

The fact remains that, seven months into the war, the Netanyahu government has not eliminated Hamas. The group’s two most senior commanders, Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif, have not been have not been killed or captured. At least 125 hostages abducted by Hamas are believed to still be held captive.

There is another timeframe, also of seven months, which is causing deep concern to the Biden team. The Gaza war will continue for at least that amount of time and probably a few months longer, according to Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi.

This, of course, will take it into the closing stages of the US election campaign and election day. According to recent polls, more than half and as many as two-thirds of Americans disapprove of Biden’s handling of Gaza. In a February primary in Michigan, more than 100,000 Democrats voted “uncommitted” after opponents of the war asked for a protest vote.

Democrat donors have warned the president that his support for the Israeli onslaught may cost him the election. One of the top donors. George Krupp, who expected to raise an estimated $2.5m at a recent fundraiser in Boston, was blunt: “I think this Israel thing has been a catastrophe for Biden. I absolutely think he needs to suspend arms shipments both for humanitarian and political reasons.”

More months of war are likely to lead to more lethal attacks like the one in Tal al-Sultan taking place, with more horrific images emerging. Joe Biden will have to decide at some point whether Benjamin Netanyahu has crossed his “red line”. He will not want “all eyes on Rafah” to continue until 5 November.