Don’t be shocked if Robert Jenrick beats Kemi Badenoch in the Tory leadership contest - analysis

The bookmakers and many observers have almost given up on the Tory leadership final as a contest, with Kemi Badenoch now the firm favourite to replace Rishi Sunak.

But history shows that Tory leadership elections are often far from predictable – whether it is in the early rounds where MPs wittle down the contenders to two, or the final run-off, where party members have their say.

Ms Badenoch’s rival, Robert Jenrick, only made it to the final because of some clever tactics in persuading MPs to switch to him from former home secretary James Cleverly. He also was perceived to come off badly in the debate on GB News and a recent ConHome poll suggested Ms Badenoch had the backing of 55 per cent to his 31 per cent.

It all appears to be in the bag for Ms Badenoch, but despite that there are a number of reasons Mr Jenrick’s supporters are still very confident.

Just look at the previous round of the contest, when Mr Cleverly was a surprise loser despite having a substantial lead in the round before that.

Cleverly had been so relaxed about getting to the final that he even attended the party for Boris Johnson’s book launch the night before, instead of hitting the phones.

Tactical voting has plagued Tory leadrship contests, and many times the frontrunner has found themselves ditched. Previously race leaders to have lost their leads include Ken Clarke, Michael Portillo, David Davis, Boris Johnson (at the first attempt in 2016), and Rishi Sunak (in 2022).

There is little doubt that Mr Jenrick hit the ground sooner and harder than any of his five rivals at the start of this contest.

By the time the contest in the final run-off of two began, he had already visited more than 150 constituency parties and attended almost all the hustings.

Ms Badenoch took a family holiday at the start of the campaign and as a result was initially lagging behind Mr Jenrick. But, more to the point, unlike him, she has a shadow ministerial portfolio which means she has to divide her time between campaigning and holding the government to account.

It means Ms Badenoch has not succeeded in getting to as many parts of the country as Mr Jenrick and there have been complaints about her sending substitutes to hustings.

While Ms Badenoch has the support of the leading voice on the left of the tories, Damian Green, the ex-chairman of the one Nation Group, Mr Jenrick has deliberately gone after policies on the right with party members clearly spooked by the success of Nigel Farage and Reform.

His support for leaving the European Convention of Human Rights (ECHR) has even seen leading members from the left of the party like former health secretary Victoria Atkins back him.

In contrast Ms Badenoch has deliberately avoided policies apart from a pledge to reverse the VAT on private school fees. She believes it is dishonest to have firm policies so far from an election.

Mr Jenrick has also led the way on party reform – pledging to give ordinary members much more of a say in who their candidate is and even electing the chairman.

This has become much more of an issue in recent years with a sense that Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) has become overbearing and over powerful, taking away choice from members over who their local candidate is. Perhaps the low point came in the last election when party chairman Richard Holden forced himself on Basildon and Bilericay in a candidate shortlist of one – himself.

While it is easy to track some Tory members on social media, many of them are older and many are not even regular users of the internet. So polling by brands like ConHome has a limited scope.

This is in many ways the biggest problem in predicting who the inner will be. Both candidates are from the right of the party which in theory will appeal to a membership which is generally seen as more rightwing than the MPs the party gets elected.

Added to that a lot of members do not even attend events so it is hard to tell who the less active membership card holders will support.

The winner of the contest is due to be revealed at 11am on 2 November. The Independent will have full coverage.