Jenrick insists Tory leadership race ‘neck and neck’ despite new poll

Robert Jenrick has insisted the Tory leadership race is “neck and neck” despite a new poll of Conservative members giving his rival Kemi Badenoch a 24-point lead.

The former Home Office minister said there was “everything to fight for” a week before the results of the election are announced on November 2.

In a speech at Millbank Tower in central London, Mr Jenrick also announced he would seek to spend 3% of gross domestic product (GDP) on defence by the middle of the second parliament under a Tory government if he were elected leader.

The leadership hopeful has sought to draw a dividing line between himself and Ms Badenoch over the frontrunner’s focus on “principles” over policy.

Ms Badenoch has argued the Tories “have time” to reflect on what their manifesto should like come the next general election and “don’t need to rush” into setting out a detailed platform.

A survey of 828 party members carried out by the Conservative Home blog between October 23 and 24 suggested Ms Badenoch had maintained her lead over Mr Jenrick, with 55 points to his 31.

Asked on Friday whether his campaign was over, the former immigration minister said: “Absolutely not. This is neck and neck.

“That’s a survey, not a poll. The last poll that we had was done by YouGov several weeks ago, and showed it was absolutely neck and neck, the tightest leadership race that we’ve had for many years.

“There’s everything to fight for and I’m certainly going off around the country, as I have throughout the summer, and I think my message is resonating with members and with the public that we need to learn our lessons.”

Taking another swipe at his rival’s campaign approach, he added: “(Members) don’t want vague promises of policy commissions which will report back in months or years to come. They want action now.”

Mr Jenrick had used his speech at the Henry Jackson Society to set out his approach to defence, saying the UK and Nato appear “dangerously exposed”.

Taking a hawkish stance on China, he warned the Government “must wake up to the next big threat on the horizon” posed by Beijing, and branded the treatment of the Uighurs by the country’s government a “genocide” – a term the Labour administration has resisted using since taking office.

He said spending 3% of GDP on defence should be the new standard for the military bloc, expected of all member states, and Britain should be “leading by the force of our example”.

This would be funded by cuts to welfare and foreign aid rather than taxation, Mr Jenrick claimed.

Asked how quickly he would aim to reach the 3% target as prime minister, he said: “I want to see us get to 2.5% immediately under the next Conservative government, and then reach 3% by the middle of the next parliament. I think that’s a reasonable, realistic task.”

The armed forces shrank under the previous Tory administration, reaching their smallest size since the 1800s.

Asked whether the legacy of the government in which he served as a minister undermined any commitments he made on defence spending now, Mr Jenrick said: “I’ve been painfully honest about some of the mistakes of the last Conservative government, and we take our own share of responsibility for the position that our armed forces are in today.

“We stood by Ukraine, and that was an important decision by the last Conservative government… we made a decision in the final months of the last Conservative government to begin to rearm our country to ensure that we do reach 2.5% of GDP, and we set a firm timetable as to how we would do that.”

He accused the Labour Government of choosing to “delay” important decisions until at least the spring of next year by failing to set out a timetable for when it wants to reach the 2.5% spending ambition.

Downing Street later repeated its position that it would hit the target “as soon as possible”.

Mr Jenrick said service personnel should be given a pay rise “to reflect their commitment to our country and address the recruitment and retention crisis that we have within our armed forces”.

He also insisted the UK should “unequivocally reject” demands for reparations amid renewed calls from Caribbean nations for Britain to pay and apologise for its role in the slave trade.

“While the topic of overseas aid and reparations is being discussed, let me confront it head on,” he said.

“We must unequivocally reject these claims, they are based on false and misleading narratives about our past, after all it was Britain that worked harder than nearly any other country to eradicate the slave trade.”

Elsewhere, he repeated his claim that he would put Nigel Farage into “retirement” if elected Tory leader by winning back voters who switched to Reform UK at the 2024 general election.

“He knows that if I am leader of this party, he will be in retirement,” he said.

Mr Jenrick and Ms Badenoch were confirmed as the final two candidates in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak earlier this month, after a surprise result in a ballot of Tory MPs saw former home secretary James Cleverly knocked out of the race.

The ballot is due to close on October 31 and the winner will be confirmed on November 2.