It’s Sunak’s one year anniversary at No 10 – but who’s celebrating?

Over lunch, I dared to ask a cabinet minister to name the Conservatives’ biggest achievement in 13 years in power. There was a long, revealing pause. Eventually, they said something about education reform in England. True, the country moved up the international league table, though the changes arguably weren’t followed through.

Crucially, the reforms were announced by Michael Gove in 2010. Today’s parents, teachers and pupils will be more concerned about the damage the pandemic did to an unlucky cohort of children and the crumbling concrete in our schools. It wasn’t all down to bad luck: as chancellor, Rishi Sunak filleted a £15bn catch-up programme recommended by the government’s adviser and school building projects fell victim to Tory austerity.

This sums up Sunak’s problem as he marks an unhappy first anniversary as prime minister today: he can’t run on the Tories’ record and his attempt to portray himself as the change candidate has failed to make the impact his inner circle was convinced it would. To many voters, the technocrat looks like part of “the 30-year political status quo” he attacked at last month’s Tory conference.

His personal ratings are falling. He was supposed to level up his decontaminated party, but it has levelled him down. A year ago, Sunak led Keir Starmer as best PM by 38 per cent to 35 per cent, but now trails by 32 per cent to 41 per cent, according to Savanta. Sunak’s net favourability has dropped by 17 points (from -3 to -20) in the past 12 months, while Starmer’s has risen by four points (-2 to +2).

Sunak will probably get little credit for achieving his pledge to halve inflation this year. His promises of economic growth and cutting debt might be met on paper but will be eclipsed by the cost of living crisis. His other priorities – on NHS waiting lists and stopping the boats – remain beyond reach.

The pledges have not provided a boost, so now he is appealing to his party’s core vote and disenchanted former Tory supporters. This has alienated One Nation Tories, who are right to believe it’s a mistake to hand the centre ground to Labour. But his tack to the right didn’t appease right-wingers because the tax cuts they unrealistically demand are off the agenda for now. Now some are calling for the sacking of Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, yet that wouldn’t achieve much as Sunak dictates his strategy. Those demanding heads might have to settle for the scalp of Greg Hands, the Tory chair.

While reshuffles excite Westminster watchers like me, they rarely make much impact in the real world. Similarly, next month’s autumn statement and King’s speech are unlikely to move the dial.

Tory HQ is telling parliamentary candidates to “go local” to find chinks in Labour’s armour at constituency level. The party has read too much into its surprise victory in the Uxbridge and South Ruislip by-election, which was due to the unpopular extension of London’s ultra-low emissions zone. This clutching at straws is not a nationwide strategy; the Tories risk ignoring the lessons of their crushing defeats in Selby and Ainsty, Mid Bedfordshire and Tamworth.

Morale among Tory MPs is the worst I have known since Sunak became PM. Some wonder about changing their leader yet again before next year’s election if he cannot narrow Labour’s lead to 10 points by the spring. “Anything could happen in a panic,” one told me. But ask Tory MPs who would be their Michael Howard figure – the caretaker leader appointed to limit losses at the 2005 election when Iain Duncan Smith was booted out – and no answer is forthcoming.

It won’t happen, not least because voters would think the Tories had again taken leave of their senses, but that it is even being talked about is ominous for Sunak. The fear stalking the Tory high command is: what if the polls don’t move? If not, Tory disunity will be on full display in the election run-up.

Perhaps no one could have won the Tories an unprecedented fifth term, especially given Sunak’s rotten inheritance from Boris Johnson and Liz Truss. Yet Sunak genuinely believes he can still turn things around.

He has done better on the foreign policy front, having rebuilt broken bridges with the EU. He deservedly wins plaudits for his response to the Middle East crisis, even from Tory critics. Unlike Truss and Johnson, he is comfortable, effective and trusted on the world stage. The UK doesn’t enjoy the US’s influence, but Sunak has shown since the horrendous 7 October attack on Israel that his country can play a role by working closely with allies.

The problem, as one former minister told me, is that “this won’t make a blind bit of difference domestically.” Sunak might have a year left before the election, but it will pass quickly; his time is running out.