Rishi Sunak is posing as the candidate of ‘change’ – but will he convince the electorate?

The first word that comes to mind at the mention of Rishi Sunak might be “competent”, “smart” or even just “rich”, as a widely circulated “word cloud” from a pollster suggested this week.

It wouldn’t, by contrast, probably be “brave”. Yet the prime minister has certainly shown some unexpected audacity in making what he calls “long-term decisions” about the future of the nation, and of his party. He deserves some respect for his courage; but, inevitably at this point in the life of the Conservative-led administration that came to power in 2010, and the current hostile mood of the public, there must be some scepticism about the short-term electoral dividend.

No one who comes to Manchester ready to announce the cancellation of the most important public infrastructure project in the city for decades, if not centuries, can be counted as a coward. Perhaps, in truth, his hand was forced by the exclusive story in The Independent that the HS2 link to Manchester was in jeopardy; but, still, not many politicians would choose to put such an unwelcome piece of news at the centre of his speech.

It is a catastrophe for the long-term prospects of the North, and indeed the economic growth rate of the nation as a whole. Potential that might have been unleashed will remain dormant, to the detriment of all. Yet Mr Sunak chose not to postpone the announcement any longer.

To his credit, he made a plausible case for himself. There’s no doubt that the project has been mismanaged, expensive and late, as Mr Sunak calmly reminded us. He went further, though. He disarmed his critics with a guarantee that “every penny” of the £36bn saved by the cancellation of the high-speed Birmingham to Manchester line would be diverted to “hundreds” of smaller projects.

Mr Sunak even started to enjoy himself cataloguing his largesse – the electrification of the North Wales railways; a new station for Bradford; upgrades to the A1, A75 and M6, reopening a rail line in County Durham, a tram system for Leeds, a bypass for Shipley, and some £12bn to “better connect” Manchester and Liverpool – although not with high-speed rail.

Remarkably, given the anger over the past few weeks, his critics were assuaged. Andy Street, the Conservative mayor of the West Midlands, withdrew his threat to resign from the party. In Greater Manchester a saddened Andy Burnham condemned the lack of consultation but saw merit in some of the schemes and said he’d try to help turn them into a cohesive plan. HS2 is dead: long live “Network North”, it would seem.

However, millions of voters across the region will feel cheated by the incompetence, the waste, and the betrayal of the solemn promises about the Northern Powerhouse and bullish talk about “levelling up” over the past 13 years of successive Conservative administrations.

People north of Watford, as one saying goes, were actually once expecting HS2 to reach Newcastle via Leeds and York, plus HS3, later Northern Powerhouse Rail, and a full range of regeneration projects to rebalance the UK economy. Lavish promises, in other words, were made, and no one was more bullish about places “left behind” than Boris Johnson in the 2016 EU referendum and the 2019 general election.

In return, the Midlands and North voted Conservative in unprecedented numbers, and the red wall fell. Given that Labour won’t cancel Mr Sunak’s public transport projects (and might even improve on them) there seems little incentive for voters who “lent” Mr Johnson their vote to renew the loan for Mr Sunak. The resentment will be mercilessly exploited by Labour.

There were other policy announcements from the prime minister that were less controversial and potentially more attractive. Reforming A-levels to make them broader and requiring schools to teach English and Maths to 18 seem at least worthy of discussion. No one should object to a bonus of £30,000 for teachers in shortage subjects – typically science, technology, engineering and maths. Similarly, there’s no harm in yet another stab at raising the status of technical education via a unified “Advanced British Standard” exam at 18 (though it’s a clumsy name).

The creeping ban on the sale of cigarettes is unarguable, and will no doubt be adopted by Labour – the sooner the better. The policy “narrative” was plausible, though it lacked much sense of vision. “Long-term decisions for a brighter future” are all very well – but what does the future look like?

So Mr Sunak has a much bigger problem with his wider “pitch” to the electorate. He is posing as the candidate of “change”. As he said in his peroration, “it is time for a change” – a sentiment widely held – but his conclusion, “we are it” is less self-evident. Mr Sunak’s slogan for the next election would seem to be “Time for Change – vote Conservative”.

It’s not exactly intuitive, and Mr Sunak has to contend with the fact that he’s been at a senior level in government for the last four years, was an enthusiastic Brexiteer, and must take his share of the blame. If there are challenges with migration or knife crime, they cannot be plausibly pinned on Tony Blair and Gordon Brown. The people won’t hear that.

Mr Sunak as the candidate of change? Undoing the errors of the past? Unlike Keir Starmer, Mr Sunak cannot explicitly denounce the works of John Major, David Cameron, Theresa May, Mr Johnson and Liz Truss even as he implicitly rejects the alleged chronic short-termism of the past 30 years (neatly absolving Margaret Thatcher of blame, an act of heresy he’d likely not survive). Did he have those Conservative predecessors in mind when he showed in his speech such contempt for “politicians saying things and nothing ever happening”. Or was it maybe just Mr Johnson?

In any case, the public has listened to successive premiers of all parties claim to be putting the long-term national interest first, and then demonstrably failing to do so. Therefore, a certain amount of scepticism must attach to Mr Sunak’s earnest promises in that same vein.

After all, not so long ago Mr Sunak himself was extolling the value of long-term investment in HS2. He was just as happy as George Osborne to turn up at an HS2 building site with a hard hat on, pointing at things.

Mr Sunak says the facts changed, and the money ran out. Fine… but who was chancellor of the Exchequer a few years ago when things were going wrong?