Why Macron’s ‘special relationship’ with Qatar could seal his fate at the French election

Even by France’s extravagant and grandiose standards, the hospitality and reverence laid out for the emir of Qatar, his 10 ministers and their entourage is majestic. It is 27 February 2024, and President Macron is greeting the emir at the Vestibule d’Honneur (Hall of Honour), the grand entrance to the Elysee Palace in Paris. The red carpet and all the ornaments of state regalia are on display.

But the two heads of state are not exchanging mere diplomatic platitudes. The emir and Macron are negotiating a deal: Qatar will invest billions in the French economy and provide security assistance, and in return the tiny Gulf state will retain its diplomatic influence in Gaza and France will ignore allegations of financing Hamas and severe beatings and harassment of its workers and gay people.

The details are agreed: Qatar will invest 10 billion Euros in French energy, aerospace, health and AI companies. They will also provide 2185 Qatari security officials to augment French officers at next month’s Olympic Games in Paris, participating in foot patrols, counter terrorism, drones, explosive ordnance disposal, cyber security and riot control.

The deal is part of the Qatar foreign policy playbook throughout the West, notably in the UK. The oil-and-gas-rich state spends billions on trophy assets and influence operations, and in return secures a front row seat on the diplomatic stage. In France, they purchased the football team Paris St Germain (PSG), luxury properties, and the former French military headquarters for 300 million Euros to build a deluxe hotel.

“Qatar’s motive is to expand their power base and influence throughout the world”, a former Foreign Office official told me. “They just want to use their wealth to be accepted as a global power and will spend whatever it takes”.

For the voters backing the increasingly popular far-right National Rally, Qatar’s buying up of Paris is like a Trojan Horse entering France – a cover for expanding the influence of Arab states which will result in more Islamic immigration. In fact, National Rally (NR) has highlighted Qatar’s acquisition of PSG during the current parliamentary election.  “I want Qatar’s ownership of PSG to be challenged”, said NR’s deputy leader Jean-Philippe Tanguy last month.  “It is being used as a major weapon to influence French foreign policy”.

The power and prominence of wealthy, foreign elites like Qatar and their support for Islamic terrorism have been a major factor in RN’s surge of support, according to opinion pollsters Ipsos and Elabe. While immigration remains the voters’ primary concern, these polls show President Macron’s support for wealthy Arab dictatorships like Qatar has alienated French citizens, notably his lobbying for the Gulf billionaires to invest in the broadcasting rights for Ligue 1, the top tier of French football.

Such subservience was apparent when Macron celebrated the 10 billion deal during a lavish dinner with the Emir of Qatar and his ministers in the Elysee Palace. Amidst the splendour of the Paulin room, they were joined by Bernard Arnault, the billionaire owner of the luxury brand LVMH, the French football star Kylian Mbappe and the head of PSG. At the dinner Macron thanked the Emir fulsomely for his “support” and in response a Qatari minister emphasised the vital role of the media in highlighting “the achievements” of the tiny but powerful Gulf state.

Among the dinner guests was the stern-faced and influential French culture minister Rachida Dati. She epitomises the new cosy insidious “special relationship” between Qatar and France. A former justice minister, Dati is mayor of an upmarket district of Paris which is home to the national assembly, the Eiffel Tower and several museums.

She is a fervent advocate of Qatari investment and influence in France. Leaked documents show how Dati chaired at least one meeting in Paris, in which she tried to align the inhabitants of the neighbourhood with the developers of a luxury hotel owned by Qatari investors.

Dati’s close relationship with Qatar can be traced back to early 2019, when she was an MEP. Emails published by the news outlet Blast show how she secretly advised Ali bin Samikh al Marri, Qatar’s labour minister. The leaked documents suggest Dati promoted his image by ghostwriting his letters to French politicians and discreetly informing him about Qatar’s regional rival, the United Arab Emirates (UAE).

In one letter, Dati and the Swiss lawyer Marc Bonnant discussed ways to boost Al Marri’s image. “I have received the documents on Al Marri”, wrote Bonnant. “I communicated them to a few journalists I am close to, drawing their attention to the importance of what Al Marri is accomplishing and inviting them to report on it”. The email suggests it was Dati who sent the information to the lawyer.

Four months later, in April 2019, Dati’s European parliamentary office sent two reports about the UAE to Al Marri. The dossier included information about UAE’s military interventions in Libya and its links to far-right politicians – notably France’s Marine Le Pen. The next evening, Dati’s office sent draft letters to Al Marri and suggested he send them to the French justice minister Nicole Belloubet. Al Marri then thanked the justice minister: “You will, Madam minister, always be welcome in Qatar”.

When asked about her dealings with Qatar, Dati replied via her lawyer: “All her activities as an MEP have been carried out in full transparency, in particular, her missions and meetings as part of a pan-Arab delegation. The same applies to her relations with Qatar”. The lawyer Marc Bonnant said: “I have never been asked as a lawyer or as a friend of Rachida Dati to render any services of any kind to anybody in Qatar”.

The choice of Al Marri as Qatar’s primary lobbyist in France was unfortunate to say the least. In 2022, the Belgian police described the labour minister as the leader of Qatar’s efforts to bribe several former MEPs, according to multiple media reports. Known as Qatargate, the scandal broke during the World Cup, hosted by Qatar, when Belgian police raided the houses of the suspects and found nearly 1.5 million euros in cash used to bribe officials and politicians.

In March 2023, the Belgian police issued an international arrest warrant against Al Marri. Two months later the warrant was withdrawn, but the investigation has severely damaged the reputation of Qatar, Al Marri and the European parliament.

In fact, Qatar’s special relationship with France can be traced to 2001, when President Chirac lobbied the International Court of Justice on behalf of Qatar in a territorial dispute with Bahrain. The court ruled in favour of Qatar, whose attorney general just happened to be the cousin of Al Marri, currently the chief conduit between France and the rich Gulf state. Based on Chirac’s largesse, Qatar then awarded highly profitable contracts to former French diplomats Bertrand Besancenot and Jean-David Levitte via their company ESL & Network, later awarded to Avisa Partners. This hiring of powerful government officials and diplomats cemented Qatar’s strategic interests in France.

President Macron’s willingness to be seduced by Qatar has contributed to the catastrophic decline in his popularity. The polls show the increased turnout and support for National Rally is due to voters feeling their aloof president prioritises the cultivation of Arab regimes over their own basic economic needs, security and aspirations. They believe Macron has made a Faustian pact with Qatar and this Sunday it is likely that deal will result in a historic victory for the far right.