You’re wrong, Rishi – Labour does have a plan to stop the boats. This is it…

After seeing off the right-wing revolt over his Rwanda scheme, Rishi Sunak claimed that the Labour opposition has “no plan” to stop the boats.

He is wrong. Labour has a credible plan – but doesn’t really want to talk about it.

After a below-the-radar diplomatic offensive with EU leaders by Keir Starmer and shadow ministers, there is growing confidence inside Labour that a Starmer government could secure a returns agreement with the EU to allow migrants crossing the Channel to be sent back to France.

This would be a huge prize for Labour. Its opposition to Sunak’s unworkable plan to send asylum seekers to Rwanda would be vindicated. The public would welcome migrants being returned to France or other EU countries – they don’t understand why it doesn’t happen now.

Why could it under a Labour government? Because it would be Starmer’s number one goal as he transformed UK relations with the EU – a project he is deadly serious about.

Shadow ministers do not shout from the rooftops about the EU relationship or returns deal. Their game is to make themselves a smaller – not bigger – target. The Conservatives would deploy any ammunition for their unjustified claim that Starmer wants to take Britain back into the EU.

When Labour dares to mention a returns agreement, the Tories scream that the opposition would accept 100,000 migrants from the EU as part of the deal. A “totally made-up figure,” Labour frontbenchers tell me – though there would be a smaller one. “We would have to bring something to the table,” one admitted.

Instead, Starmer talks about smashing the people trafficking gangs, citing his work against terrorists as director of public prosecutions. But he sounds the same as Sunak. Everyone wants to smash the gangs, yet the boats keep on coming.

Is Labour being naive about an agreement to return migrants? When the UK was an EU member, the Dublin convention, which allowed migrants to be sent back to their country of entry into the bloc, didn’t work effectively. But it was better than nothing.

Having talked to senior Labour and EU figures, I don’t think Labour is guilty of wishful thinking. A returns agreement would be possible if Starmer could convince EU leaders in general – and France’s Emmanuel Macron in particular – that he wants a bold, fresh start in the relationship.

It wouldn’t be plain sailing. Officials in Brussels say there is “Brexit fatigue” in European capitals, a reluctance to reopen relatively recent wounds. The EU has more pressing priorities and its huge internal tensions over migration have not been resolved by a new common asylum system. About 1 million migrants arrived in EU nations last year – similar to the level in 2015 which sparked its biggest ever migration crisis. The issue is being exploited by far-right parties across the continent.

EU officials are pleasantly surprised at how UK relations have improved under Sunak. But there are still scars from the Boris Johnson regime, so the EU suspects any UK government would try to “cherry pick” good bits of EU membership without signing up to the whole package.

Starmer’s first task is to convince them otherwise. He has begun it. I’m told he informs EU leaders he wants a “step change” to “reset” the relationship very quickly.

EU diplomats speak of two possible timescales: two years and 15 years. Although latter is seen by some as more realistic, Starmer wants to take the fast lane.

To get the EU on board, he knows he would have to offer something big in return. It would be a much closer security partnership, using the UK’s military heft as his trump card. This would be attractive to EU nations who know that they might soon not be able to rely on the US, and are rightly nervous about Russian aggression but wary of spending more on defence.

Starmer thinks the relationship could be transformed without the UK rejoining the single market or customs union or accepting the free movement of people. On trade, Labour would offer alignment with EU regulatory standards – a win-win for both sides, since in practice many UK businesses still follow EU rules.

In his talks with EU leaders, Starmer promises that Labour would be a “reliable, trustworthy and valuable partner” who would stand alongside the EU as it is squeezed by the battle for supremacy between the US and China. Labour tells EU figures it is on the same page as them on combating China, while the Tories send conflicting signals, and would work in lockstep rather than competition on green investment. Starmer also offers closer cooperation on crime and justice.

The EU is increasingly anxious about the prospect of a Donald Trump return. Although Starmer’s life as prime minister would be a lot easier if Joe Biden retained power, the EU and UK would certainly realise they needed each other if Trump won a second term. While Starmer is hopeful of landing a returns agreement in any scenario, stopping the boats would become easier with Trump back in the White House.