Trump’s return to the White House could be a headache for Sunak – and a nightmare for Starmer

An unprecedented number of elections around the world in 2024 – more than 60 are expected – is causing jitters among diplomats in the West. I’m told there were discussions inside the Aukus defence pact between the UK, US and Australia about ensuring their looming elections do not overlap.

The fear among officials was that uncertain outcomes (such as a contested US result or a hung parliament in the UK) could create a disastrous vacuum of leadership in the West and leave Vladimir Putin the main winner. And that’s before the possible impact on the Middle East and China.

Similarly, ministers admit privately the Cabinet Office advised Rishi Sunak to ensure the UK contest would not clash with an American one set in stone for 5 November. As well as the risk of uncertainty during a global crisis, there are fears hostile countries like Russia will try to influence elections through cyberwars.

Sunak’s decision to delay the election until the autumn means the US and UK campaigns will overlap. So it’s dawning on Conservative and Labour figures that the scary spectre of Donald Trump will hover over the UK contest. They can no longer wish away the frightening prospect of a Trump second coming. He’s not certain of being the Republican candidate, but it looks increasingly likely. He’s not certain to beat Joe Biden, but he is ahead in the opinion polls.

Trump is the ultimate Teflon man: nothing sticks to him. Remarkably, allegations against him that would floor any other politician seem to make him stronger.

Sunak and Keir Starmer will try to stick to the convention of not commenting on other countries’ elections. But it won’t be so easy this time. The Trump factor could mean foreign affairs plays a bigger role than usual in the UK election.

Some Tories think Sunak can be portrayed as an experienced, safe pair of hands in a dangerous world, and an untried Labour Party is a risk as it includes a band of pro-Corbyn MPs who backed a leader who wants to disband alliances like Nato.

It would fit with the Tories’ pitch on the economy to “stick with nurse for fear of something worse“.

Although the Tories are traditionally seen as the best party to handle defence, I don’t think this line of attack would work. I suspect the Tories will struggle to present themselves as a beacon of stability after the Johnson and Truss regimes, while Starmer’s patriotism and desire for close links with the UK’s allies are genuine. He has closed the gap on defence and took the hard road of not calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza and Israel because he knew the UK’s partners were sizing him up. He is in regular contact with Jake Sullivan, Biden’s national security adviser.

During the UK campaign, Trump could become a headache for Sunak, as right-wing Tories and Nigel Farage, likely to return to the front line for Reform UK, endorse the former president’s latest outburst on immigration or tax cuts and urge Sunak to follow suit. Moderate Tories might retaliate by disowning him. Sunak will want to play the immigration card against Labour, but looking like a mini-Trump would alienate liberal-minded potential Tory voters.

A Trump victory on 5 November could take place in the closing stages of the UK’s campaign as 14 November is one possible date ringed in the Downing Street diary. If Trump wins, UK party leaders could hardly avoid commenting. They would doubtless say the special relationship is bigger than any individual leader and that they would try to work with Trump mark two.

But the depressing assumption among diplomats is that he would be even more dangerous and unpredictable than in his first term. He would likely end US financial and military supplies for Ukraine, pull back from Nato and withdraw from global efforts to combat climate change. Brussels insiders tell me a Trump return could “shake to its foundations” a European post-war settlement based on peace, freedom, prosperity and close US links. (More prosaically, they would have to spend a lot more on defence and fight their own wars).

The rules-based international order could be in jeopardy, and foreign affairs would sit at the top of the incoming UK government’s agenda. If Labour wins, it will have a baptism of fire abroad and at home, with its rotten economic inheritance.

With the US link weakened, the UK would inevitably be drawn into a closer relationship with the EU. It would have nowhere else to go. To his credit, Sunak has stabilised the EU relationship but deeper links would be easier for Starmer than Sunak to navigate given the likely reaction inside their parties. Starmer already plans a new security pact with the EU.

For Labour, a Trump victory is a nightmare it desperately hopes to avoid. The hope in the shadow cabinet is that Biden wins a second term and makes a new Israel-Palestine peace process his legacy project (admittedly, a million miles from where we are today). Although Labour would never admit it, there might just be a tiny silver lining for it in a Trump triumph, as it would make it easier for Starmer to achieve his undeclared sixth mission: to transform UK relations with the EU.