Could Keir Starmer and Ed Davey’s bromance give Labour its landslide?

The Conservatives are throwing everything they can muster at Labour, but, to Rishi Sunak’s frustration, the opinion-poll needle is stuck on a 20-point lead for Keir Starmer’s party.

Even the Tories’ greatest election hits on tax and spending are not working. When they ran a scare story that Labour would raise VAT, Rachel Reeves shot down this flyer within minutes.

The irony of this campaign is that Labour’s wounds have been inflicted not by the Tory enemy but by its woeful mishandling of whether the veteran left-winger Diane Abbott should be a Labour candidate. For months, the word in Labour land was that Abbott, suspended for antisemitic remarks for which she apologised, would regain the party whip, but would retire and be allowed to make the gracious exit from the Commons she deserved.

It seemed the deal was on – until overzealous Starmer aides briefed The Times that Abbott would be barred from standing as a Labour candidate, presumably to make Starmer look strong in facing down the left (again). Even some Starmer loyalists admit the briefing was “unhelpful” – politicians’ code for disastrous.

Team Starmer insists that he doesn’t get directly involved in internal party matters and leaves issues such as parliamentary selections to trusted aides. If he trusts you, he trusts you a lot. Sometimes, it seems, too much.

Abbott judged that Labour had reneged on its side of the bargain, accused the leadership of enacting a “cull” of left-wing candidates, and vowed to remain MP for Hackney North and Stoke Newington.

Initially, Starmer allies hoped it would remind voters that he is “not Corbyn”. The ruthless ditching of left-wing candidates such as Faiza Shaheen and Lloyd Russell-Moyle marked a change of mindset into “governing mode”; a nightmare scenario for Team Starmer is winning only a small Commons majority, allowing a rump of Corbynista MPs to call the shots.

But Angela Rayner’s dramatic declaration that she sees no reason why Abbott should not be a Labour candidate took the row to new levels. It was a direct challenge to Starmer’s authority, and threatened to derail Labour’s previously smooth campaign. Labour insiders expected that the inevitable wobbles along the route would be due to events beyond Labour’s control. Instead, Starmer’s office peeled the banana itself and then slipped on the skin.

Labour’s deputy leader is not the only shadow cabinet member appalled by Abbott’s treatment. Some Labour candidates report a backlash among party activists – just when the party needs its volunteer army on the ground.

Despite the chest-beating by Starmer’s aides, Rayner forced him to back down; yesterday, he accepted that Abbott could be a candidate after all.

Close Starmer allies are unrepentant. There is fury towards Rayner for flexing her muscles after being cleared of allegations whipped up by Tories over the sale of her former home. One told me: “She is clearly not John Prescott in a skirt [as she once joked], because he would never have done what she’s done.” They claimed that Abbott “has never been on the side of the party, only her hard-left faction”, and that, if re-elected, she “would give no more loyalty to Starmer or the manifesto”.

A demoralised Labour left now rues missing its golden opportunity to put Labour centrists permanently out of business while Corbyn was leader. “We’ll never get another chance,” one left-winger groaned.

I have more bad news for the left. Replacing left-wing candidates with loyal “Starmtroopers” is not the end of the matter. Starmer has an insurance policy designed to ensure that he never has to rely on the Commons votes of left-wing MPs. He has quietly forged a close relationship with the Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey in the hope of securing Lib Dem support in key votes (but stopping short of a coalition with Lib Dem ministers).

This is why Starmer, while ruling out any post-election deal with the SNP, chooses his words more carefully when he talks about the Lib Dems.

I’m told that, over a convivial dinner, Starmer and Davey realised they had much in common – acting as a carer for a family member; having a knighthood that can sometimes be a millstone; and harbouring a desire to rebuild closer links with the EU. (One insider quipped that they share something else – a public perception that they are a bit boring. There was no need to discuss that.)

In the short term, the two knights have agreed an unofficial pact under which they will not plough resources into seats where the other has the best chance of defeating the Tories. This is ominous for Sunak, because a similar bromance between Tony Blair and Paddy Ashdown contributed to Labour’s 1997 landslide.

The plan for a Commons voting pact could have even greater implications. It was cooked up when a much closer election was expected. Starmer will hope he doesn’t need his insurance policy this year. But it might allow him to outmanoeuvre his remaining left-wing MPs in a second term – when he would likely have a smaller majority.

Like the Tories, left-wingers are realising that they underestimate Starmer’s ruthlessness at their peril.