Trudeau is the first liberal beast to be felled by Trump. Question is: who’s next?

Canada was, it was widely said, plunged into crisis after Justin Trudeau resigned as prime minister and Liberal Party leader on the first working day after the holiday break. But this is not quite true.

Canadian politics was already in crisis. It might be more accurate to present Trudeau’s resignation as offering the only way out of the crisis that had culminated last month in the summary departure of his deputy and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, and the loss of support from the last party in parliament, still shoring up his minority government.

Freeland’s resignation had laid bare a sharp policy split at the apex of the government over public spending, while the threat by Jagmeet Singh, leader of the New Democratic Party, to propose a no-confidence vote could have toppled a government already barely able to govern.

Trudeau may have, as he said in his resignation announcement, consulted his family before making his decision, but in truth, the decision had been made for him. The Liberal Party is now looking for a new leader, with the possibility that the next general election, to be held by next autumn, could be brought forward.

Canadian politics is now on hold, probably until late March – and the hiatus could hardly come at a worse time for Canada, just two weeks before the arrival in the White House of Donald Trump.

That said, maybe a new leader will be better able to deal with a US president who had Trudeau rushing to meet him at the Florida White House-in-waiting, in an effort to avert the threat of trade tariffs, only to be patronised as the “Governor of the Great State of Canada” – and for Trump to declare Canada the “51st state”. Trudeau had negotiated a trade deal with Trump in his first term, but it seems relations have changed.

In trying to square the incoming US president in advance, Canada’s prime minister was hardly unique. A striking feature of recent weeks is how many national leaders have sought to plead their case with Trump in person, and how many countries have been adjusting their policies in anticipation – or had their policies in effect adjusted for them.

The political dynamics in France, which last month unveiled its fourth prime minister of that year, and Germany, where an early election awaits, have been affected by the fallout from the US election. Peter Mandelson’s role as the incoming British ambassador, which he described as a “great honour”, looks trickier by the day.

For the US president-elect has already caused a stir within the EU and the Nato alliance, and in Ukraine, with his pledge to end the war with Russia. The elusive ceasefire and hostage release between Israel and Hamas may also be top of Trump’s in-tray.

In Canada, the disagreement that did more than anything else to precipitate Trudeau’s resignation was tangentially about Trump. Freeland, as finance minister, had resigned after contesting Trudeau’s public spending commitments as “gimmicks” at a time when, she argued, rigour was needed to protect against the 25 per cent tariffs threatened by Trump, if Canada would not secure the mutual border to US liking.

The nature of that disagreement could place Freeland in pole position to succeed Trudeau as party leader. Another plausible contender, more recognisable on this side of the Atlantic, is Mark Carney, who confirmed his political ambitions by throwing his hat into the ring within 24 hours of Trudeau’s announcement. Poached by George Osborne in 2012 to become governor of the Bank of England from his position as head of the Canadian central bank, he has since become an international environmental champion, and something of a model celebrity Canadian.

As high a profile as the next party leader may enjoy, however, it seems unlikely that the Liberal Party can avoid defeat by the Conservatives at the next election – for two reasons. First, because the current 15-point gap in the polls will be nigh impossible to close. But, second, because either of these frontrunners will be vulnerable to the same charges that felled Trudeau – that they are out of touch with the issues of greatest concern to ordinary voters.

And what stands out here is how familiar those issues will sound to voters both south of the border and across the Atlantic. They include the scale of recent immigration; the rise in the cost of living, as a result of higher energy and grocery costs; environmental policies that are also raising living costs; and unaffordable housing. The very same complaints propelled Trump to the presidency of the United States last November, are likely to lose Olaf Scholz’s centre-left the German election, and caused the discontent in the UK that brought Labour to power in July and are already threatening the popularity of the new government.

Now it may just be that these are the ills that afflict all societies at a particular point in their development, at a time when cross-border movement of people is hard to stem. But Trudeau’s particular brand of liberalism magnified them all; from Canada’s notably generous immigration policies to the carbon tax underpinning its environment policies; its focus on benefits designed to reduce poverty; and efforts to recognise the history and improve the lot of indigenous peoples. Add in one of the most liberal assisted dying legislation in the world and legal cannabis to boot.

From the idealistic glow and 60-plus per cent poll ratings that had attended his early years in office, Trudeau’s popularity had slumped below 30 per cent. His policies had become increasingly divisive, with support residing chiefly with a small cosmopolitan elite, which is also why his legacy is likely to spell electoral defeat for his party in the next election – whoever leads it.

The difference in mood between his first, surprise, election victory and now is also why there has been much talk about his spectacular rise and fall, even of his “personal tragedy”. The fall was made all the more acute because of the parallels with the career – and the charm and the combative qualities – of his father, Pierre, who also resigned after his popularity plummeted (albeit after a total of 15, to Justin’s nine, years in power.)

If Canadian-style, or perhaps rather Trudeau-style, liberalism may be condemned to eclipse, at least for a spell, the younger Trudeau nonetheless has achievements to his name, specifically for Canada, that will stand the test of time. Canada is now more distinct from its southern neighbour – both in its social and foreign policies – than it probably ever was.

Whether you think this a good thing or not – and there will be those both in Canada and south of the border who do not – Trudeau implemented what was essentially a levelling-up policy that sharply reduced the number of those living below the poverty line.

Trudeau can also be credited with advancing the reality of a bilingual, bicultural Canada that is more at ease with itself than it has ever been. Quebec separatism is no longer the issue it was; past ills, in particular towards the indigenous population, have been recognised as they were not before. Environmentalism is embedded in Canada’s national identity.

Trudeau may be leaving office in ignominy, out of tune with the spirit of the times, but his nine years have left a mark. And at least some of his achievements are so well embedded and taken for granted as so Canadian, that they will not be reversed – however far the Western world may come, in the short term at least, to align itself with Donald Trump.