What could a second Trump presidency mean for foreign affairs?

Donald Trump has been elected for a second time as US President and will return to the White House in January.

Since he left the Oval Office in 2021, Russia has invaded Ukraine, and Israel has been fighting in Gaza and Lebanon. Mr Trump has vowed to end these wars, but has not set out how he would do so.

He has also proposed tariffs on foreign goods entering the US, which could have a wide-ranging impact on the global economy.

Here, the PA news agency looks at what a second Trump presidency could mean for foreign affairs.

– Ukraine and Nato

Mr Trump and his running mate JD Vance have cast doubt on continuing the support the US has provided for Ukraine under Joe Biden.

Bronwen Maddox, director of the Chatham House think tank, has said she thinks Mr Trump will “pressure for some kind of deal” over the war in Ukraine.

“I’d be surprised if he didn’t press for some kind of freezing of the conflict … about where it is now.

“That doesn’t mean handing those lands that Russia has captured over to Russia. It could mean some kind of simple ceasefire”, with the “status of those lands left to the future”, she said.

Ms Maddox added: “The question is whether Trump gives Ukraine a guarantee of American security, either through Nato or directly, because I think, without that, Russia is just going to wait its time and come back.”

Professor Sam Greene of King’s College London meanwhile thinks Ukraine is unlikely to be at the top of Mr Trump’s agenda, but suggests that his actions could be swayed by whatever brings him political capital in Washington.

An “abject American capitulation” to Russia’s ambitions in Ukraine would be “disastrous to American national security”, he says.

“Whether Trump actually cares about that is a different story. But it is also unlikely to win him any political capital in DC, and in fact it is likely to cost him quite a bit, and that’s something he does care about, or at least something he has cared about in the past.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said he appreciated Mr Trump’s commitment to the “peace through strength” approach to global affairs as he welcomed his win.

“This is exactly the principle that can practically bring just peace in Ukraine closer. I am hopeful that we will put it into action together. We look forward to an era of a strong United States of America under President Trump’s decisive leadership.”

Mr Zelensky said on Wednesday morning that “we rely on continued strong bipartisan support for Ukraine in the United States.”

No congratulations were forthcoming from Moscow, where President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman declared that Russia-US relations were at the “lowest point in history”.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov said: “Let’s not forget that we are talking about the unfriendly country that is both directly and indirectly involved in a war against our state.”

Russia is sure to take an interest in Mr Trump’s stance on support for Ukraine and on Nato. Moscow has long criticised the enlargement of the military alliance.

Mr Trump was a strong critic of the Atlantic military alliance during his first term and has complained about US tax dollars funding European security and Nato members not spending enough.

Nato secretary-general Mark Rutte praised Mr Trump on Wednesday for his work persuading member states to ramp up defence spending, saying Nato was now “stronger, larger, and more united”.

– Middle East

Israel’s Prime Minister was one of the first world leaders to congratulate the President-elect, calling his victory “history’s greatest comeback”.

“Your historic return to the White House offers a new beginning for America and a powerful recommitment to the great alliance between Israel and America,” Benjamin Netanyahu said.

Dr Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow at the Rusi defence and security think tank, said Middle Eastern states will be “bracing” to see how Mr Trump’s campaign pledge to end wars will play out on the ground in Gaza and Lebanon and amid the Israel-Iran military stand-off.

“The horrific October 7 Hamas attacks altered the regional status quo, meaning this is not the Middle East that Trump left four years ago,” she said.

“Topping a complex list of unknowns is how much leverage Trump will have over Netanyahu, and the extent to which he will manifest that leverage to end Israel’s military operations in Gaza and Lebanon, contain regional conflict spillover, and deliver sustainable political settlements.”

Ms Maddox said of the Middle East conflict that Mr Trump “could make it worse” or “could just about make it better”.

“He could make it worse by siding with the people in the Netanyahu cabinet who favour trying to annex the West Bank and essentially push Palestinians out of lands earmarked for their future land.

“He could make it better. If he wanted to expand on the Abraham Accords of his first term and say: ‘Look, the big prize is the deal with the Saudis. Come on Israel, you need to do that.’ And that means land for the Palestinians. That would be the more optimistic view for peace in the region, in my view.

“But he clearly doesn’t want … American forces taken up with foreign wars. And soon, there will be a lot of pressure on Netanyahu to shut this down by January.”

Iran’s currency fell to an all-time low off the back of Mr Trump’s election victory. Mr Trump pulled the US out of Iran’s nuclear deal with world powers in 2018, sparking years of tensions that persist today.

Dr Ozcelik said that Gulf states like Saudi Arabia and the UAE probably think they can gain US security guarantees, arms deals and a tougher stance on Iran under a second Trump presidency.

“Many in the region will be readying for a return to Trump’s transactional diplomacy — a tit-for-tat, business deal-making approach — that the regional political elite will be familiar with from the previous Trump administration,” she said.

– The economy and tariffs

The President-elect has vowed to impose tariffs on imports to the United States – which could hit the global economy.

Mr Trump has said he wants to increase tariffs on goods imported from around the world by 10%, rising to 60% on goods from China.

Jonathan Portes, professor of economics and public policy at King’s College London, said: “If Trump does indeed implement very large across-the-board tariff increases, this will be a severe shock to the global economy, including the UK.

“Moreover, the US current fiscal trajectory is unsustainable over the medium term.

“While a major crisis is unlikely in the short-term, Trump’s tax cuts would certainly raise the risk of higher long-term interest rates – which would further damage both the UK economy and our fiscal position.”

Ms Maddox of Chatham House said tariffs are “probably one of the first things that Britain will notice” under a Donald Trump presidency.

This could be particularly bad news for the UK Government as their plans are heavily reliant on economic growth.

“We don’t know how quickly Trump will move on it, but I would think very quickly – it’s one of the things he’s promised his followers,” she said.

She added: “We don’t quite know what the tariffs will be and on which goods.

“Goods on China going into the US will hit global growth and tariffs on other countries like Europe and the UK, they will affect our ability to sell things to the US.

“So it’s not good for exactly the kind of economic growth that Keir Starmer is putting so much weight on.”