Could ‘John Prescott in a skirt’ take over from Keir Starmer?

Keir Starmer has been prime minister for only four months, but Labour MPs can’t help themselves: they are already gossiping about who will be his successor. The chatter has started early partly because of the government’s rocky start, and even those with wagging tongues admit it is very premature.

Such speculation happens in all parties, and some Conservatives wonder aloud whether Kemi Badenoch will lead them into the next general election. Politics is a game of snakes and ladders. Its ambitious participants can’t resist asking each other who would take over if the leader fell under a bus – and, of course, thinking how it might affect their own prospects.

The death of John Prescott has highlighted the parallels between the former deputy PM and the current one – and fuelled the chatter in Labour land about whether Angela Rayner will go one step further than him by becoming PM. So have her confident performances when she has stood in for Starmer at Prime Minister’s Questions. She has won brownie points among left-wingers and the trade unions by seeing off – for now, at least – a further dilution of the government’s plans to extend workers’ rights.

Prescott and Rayner both hailed from working-class, northern backgrounds and left school at 15 and 16 respectively. They moved from the trade union movement to politics and climbed the Labour ladder to become the party’s number two. Both felt frustrated when their backstory or the way they spoke eclipsed their policy achievements.

Prescott encouraged Rayner, who admired him for championing the North as she became politically aware, and she once declared: "I’m going to be John Prescott in a skirt – I just say it how I see it.” Prescott would phone her after she appeared at PMQs. When they met after she became deputy PM in July, he was visibly delighted. She has followed his mantra – “Challenge in a constructive way”. Meaning: stand up to the leader when necessary, but remain fundamentally loyal.

Rayner can perform one of Prescott’s roles – retaining the support of Labour’s working-class voters to maintain the party’s fragile coalition. (It is more fragile now than under New Labour.) Although Starmer is working class, and has told us ad nauseam he is “the son of a toolmaker”, the public view him as middle class. The freebies controversy and just being PM will reinforce that.

Yet there’s a crucial difference between Prescott and Rayner: although Prescott stood against Blair for the leadership in 1994, he had no ambition to succeed him. He was happy to be a loyal, if occasionally stroppy, deputy and wanted Gordon Brown to follow Blair. In contrast, Rayner doesn’t hide her ambition to succeed Starmer. I’m told that, when Peter Mandelson suggested the Labour leader shed a few pounds, Rayner quipped to Starmer that he couldn’t pop off yet because she wasn’t ready to take over.

Her ambition inevitably colours her relationship with Starmer, especially when things get tough – and they will get even tougher than they are now – while Blair could rely on Prescott’s solid support in turbulent times.

Relations between Starmer and Rayner have improved since the nadir of the messy 2021 reshuffle, when he tried but failed to demote her – after which they barely spoke at their weekly meetings, leaving their advisers to do the talking.

But they are not as close as Blair and Prescott were. “They will never be bosom pals,” one Starmer ally told me. Labour insiders say “the real deputy prime minister” is Pat McFadden, the Cabinet Office minister and one of “the quad” at the heart of the government with Starmer, Rayner and Rachel Reeves.

In a future leadership contest, Rayner would enjoy strong appeal among the Labour members who elect the leader. Her allies hope the party’s repeated failure to choose a female leader would be her trump card. But those who doubt Rayner’s credentials for the top job – and there are still plenty she needs to win over – would probably have an alternative in Reeves.

Wes Streeting would also be a strong contender. His public opposition to assisted dying ahead of next Friday’s Commons vote, which drew a private rebuke from Starmer, is seen by some Labour backbenchers as manoeuvring in the future leadership stakes by leading from the front while Starmer keeps silent.

Of course, much will depend on how Rayner, Reeves and Streeting perform in their demanding cabinet jobs. Another strong candidate might emerge. But Rayner has a useful springboard as the party’s deputy leader, elected by the membership – a post from which Starmer cannot sack her. Prescott’s advice to her was: “Keep going at it, kid, and do your best. Be a voice, because you have been elected and you have a mandate.”

Rayner fully intends to take it. One day, she might well seek a new mandate from Labour members – and then, perhaps, the voters. Prescott would be delighted.