Joe Biden’s mental capacity is an election issue – the Democrats must replace him now

Over the past week, discussion of the US presidential election has dramatically shifted from Joe Biden’s chances of winning a second term, to his chances of contesting the election at all.

The age question has lurked in the background ever since Biden – who, a fortnight after the 5 November poll, will turn 82 – said he would seek re-election. But it has suddenly leapt into the foreground thanks to video clips apparently showing him frozen, behaving strangely or apparently “out of it” at a number of public events. An angry White House has since accused Biden’s “right-wing critics” of producing “cheap fakes” with selective editing.

One clip, from the G7 in Italy last week – which appeared to show Biden apparently wandering off – was said to have been edited so as not to show that the US president was actually joining another group. A clip from a White House Juneteenth holiday that showed Biden staring blankly while everyone else danced was explained by the observation that some people just don’t like to dance.

Certainly, Donald Trump has noticed and is busy making political capital out of his White House rival’s travails. Last weekend, at a rally in Detroit, he questioned the president's mental acuity and challenged him to take the same cognitive test Trump said he “aced”.

My own impressions are conflicting. On the one hand, some of the pictures are authentic and certainly give the impression of an elderly man not fully up to speed with what is going on around him. But is there a sense in which Biden was ever thus?

I recall his summit with Russia’s President Putin in Geneva in the first months of his presidency. There was no joint press conference. Putin gave a fluent performance at the press conference, while Biden’s account was stuttering, scripted and almost incoherent.

On the other hand, there are times when Biden seems absolutely aware, cheerfully socialising and producing quick and pertinent repartee. His most recent State of the Union address, in March, was a veritable tour de force, delivered with clarity and verve.

The difficulty is, however, that the blank episodes seem to be becoming more frequent. And whether this reflects the reality or the propagandistic stratagems of his opponents, this is what US voters are seeing – and what may increasingly influence their vote.

Which is why there has been talk of a plan – or, less flatteringly, a plot – on the part of some senior Democrats, to have Biden replaced as the party’s presidential nominee, even at this relatively late stage.

Among those supposedly involved in such an exercise, the names of Barack Obama, Bill and/or Hillary Clinton, and senators Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer are mentioned.

The simplest solution would be for Biden to take the hint – or succumb to the heavy hand – and agree to surrender the nomination. Then, there could then be an accelerated contest to replace him, either before or during the party’s convention, to be held in Chicago in the second half of August.

But this in turn raises several questions. Who might there be to replace him? His vice-president, Kamala Harris, is seen as unelectable, having proven herself to be generally unimpressive in office. Others who might have been presidential hopefuls refrained from organising a campaign this year, knowing that there would be an open contest in four years’ time.

And it could be a fine calculation as to whether a new, hastily nominated candidate would have a better chance of victory than Biden – assuming no obvious deterioration in his capacity in the coming weeks. Biden’s particular selling point is that he beat Donald Trump last time around. Would a younger, more vigorous but less tested nominee have a better chance? That is a gamble.

Forcing a reluctant Biden to cede the nomination would be messier, and his Democratic opponents might find themselves having to make the case for his diminished capacity, calling for medical reports and the like. The question might then arise as to Biden’s capacity to continue as president, even for the seven months of his term that remain.

There is a constitutional procedure for this: the 25th Amendment, dating from 1967, which requires a quorum of dignitaries to demonstrate the president’s inability, for whatever reason, to exercise the responsibilities of office, and then a congressional vote. These powers have never been invoked, however – although there was some fleeting discussion during the second term of Ronald Reagan, when some detected the first signs of his Alzheimer’s.

Given how relatively little of Biden’s presidency remains, however, the Democratic Party’s grey eminences would most likely be satisfied with a new nominee, rather than trying to oust a sitting president.

The whole scenario, nonetheless, takes on a messy and distasteful appearance of the sort no political party would want in the run-up to an election. That does not mean there is not a clutch of Democratic senators and state governors who are even now gauging their fund-raising prospects and burnishing their CVs in the event of a last-minute nomination contest.

Among then could well be several primary hopefuls from 2020, including Pete Buttigieg, the 42-year-old former mayor of South Bend, Indiana, who moved to Washington as transport secretary in Biden’s administration. Having made a bid for the Democrat nomination in 2020, when he became the first openly gay candidate to win a presidential primary or caucus, he might be well-placed to initiate a new run.

Were Biden’s age to end his run, a repeat bid by Hillary Clinton, now 76, would appear unlikely. The likes of Amy Klobuchar, 64, senator for Minnesota, and – a more familiar name – Elizabeth Warren, 74, senator for Massachusetts, might however emerge from the class of 2020 to take up her mantle.

A new prospect might be the governor of California, Gavin Newsom, 56, who put himself on the map after the Supreme Court ruling that ended the constitutional right to abortion, by funding adverts in states restricting the procedure that announced it remained legal in California.

In a way, what is remarkable is how the age issue has been able to remain so relatively dormant until now. After all, if re-elected, Biden could still be president at 86. It has, however, been simmering quietly for many months. Visiting the US in December, I was cautioned against assuming that either of the candidates heading for the main nominations would necessarily be on the ballot paper, come 5 November, 2024. Age and infirmity being the likely impediment for Biden, and legal problems for Trump.

Six months on, those uncertainties remain – though perhaps slightly less in the case of Trump and rather more in the case of Biden. This time next week, though, it is possible that some of the clouds could clear. Next Friday morning (28 June), Americans will be mulling over the first of the set-piece television debates held the evening before. This is unusually early for a presidential debate – they are generally held only after the nominations have been finalised at the party conventions.

The timing is thought to reflect, first, the fact that the two candidates secured their nominations so early in the primary season, but also – it is reported – an interest in the Biden camp in quelling doubts about their candidate’s fitness for another four years in power. The result, of course, could be the very opposite.

There is thus a great deal riding on this first presidential debate, and much curiosity about which Biden Americans will see: the seasoned political pugilist from the State of the Union address, or the lone figure in the crowd looking vacant and lost? The next chapter of Joe Biden’s biography could be decided here.