What the sudden death of Iran’s president will mean for the Middle East and beyond

What next for Iran? The sudden death of President Ebrahim Raisi creates a vacuum at the top of the country’s political and theocratic hierarchy as the country goes through a time of turbulent strife at home and abroad.

The hardline president had backing from the pillars of the Islamic Republic, including the IRGC (Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps) and the conservative clergy, placing him as the probable successor to the ageing and ailing supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

As a new leadership begins to be formed, questions are being asked about the circumstances surrounding the helicopter crash north of Tabriz which killed both Raisi and high-profile foreign minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian.

Amir-Abdollahian has had an increasingly vocal international profile, especially in speaking out about the Israeli onslaught on Gaza and the missile exchanges between Iran and Israel. He had been aligned with the IRGC and is said to have been close to its former commander, Major General Qasem Soleimani, who was killed in an American drone strike in 2020.

There remains a host of unanswered questions about the circumstances surrounding the deaths: why were the two most senior politicians in the party travelling in the same aircraft? How did the two other helicopters in the same air convoy manage to land safely? Why was there such a long delay in announcing the deaths when the news of it was circulating among officials in Tehran for hours?

Ayatollah Khamenei had described what happened as “an unfortunate accident”, but there have been swift claims of sabotage in a region used to violence and intrigue.

Israel, which has carried out assassinations of scientists in Iran’s nuclear programme and military commanders inside the country, is the usual suspect. Israeli officials have been quick to deny culpability, but accusations and recriminations are likely to continue at a febrile and tense time.

The crash took place after Raisi had unveiled the opening of two dams at the border near Azerbaijan along with the Azeri president Ilham Aliyev. Israel is an ally of and major arms supplier to Azerbaijan – and Tehran had expressed alarm at a possible Israeli presence in its backyard.

Some in Israel hope that the deaths could lead to an internal power struggle in Iran, which would distract it from its backing adversaries of the Jewish state: the “axis of resistance” comprising Hezbollah and Hamas, militias in Syria and Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen.

It seems highly unlikely, however, that there will be any significant change in policy, foreign or domestic in the Islamic Republic.

Under the constitution, first vice-president Mohammad Mokhber will become interim leader, with a team of civil and religious advisors, with elections to be held within 50 days.

Mokhber, close to Ayatollah Khamenei, is conservative on issues such as women’s rights. He led a team to Moscow in October to finalise deals to supply surface-to-air missiles and drones for the Ukraine war, and he has been a staunch proponent of “standing up forcefully” to Israel.

Would the coming election lead to a change away from a hardline government? Those who covered the last elections on the ground were repeatedly told by people, especially the young, that they were not going to vote. They had voted in, they pointed out, the reformist Hassan Rouhani in the previous election by an overwhelming majority, but that had not led to any meaningful change.

Rouhani had signed the JCPOA (Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action), the deal with international powers on the country’s nuclear programme. But the opportunity to use this to open Iran up to the outside world and liberalise the economy disappeared when Donald Trump, as president, pulled the US out of the agreement and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.

Many of those who boycotted the polls expressed deep regret as the new reactionary government reimposed harsh social laws and cracked down on protests. Older Iranians remembered Raisi’s grim punitive past, when he played a leading role in the deaths of thousands of political opponents.

The voters who stayed away in 2021 may well vote this time around for a reformist, but it remains unclear who the opposition candidates will be. All who seek to stand are vetted by the (unelected) Guardian Council and those deemed unsuitable are barred.

In 2021 the council banned Eshaq Jahangari, Rouhani’s first vice-president, and Ali Larijani, a former Majlis speaker and chief justice who was conservative, but also a pragmatist, from standing among others. It had previously banned Hassan Khomeini from standing for the Assembly of Experts which elects the supreme leader. The cleric grandson of Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, the founding figure of the Islamic Republic after the fall of the Shah, had expressed views deemed to be too liberal.

Last week the Guardian Council declared Hassan Rouhani’s disqualification from defending his seat in the Assembly of Experts. The decision to ban a former president, who had served in the assembly for two eight-year terms, came as a surprise to senior officials and was seen as an attempt by Raisi to further smooth his way to becoming 85-year-old Khamenei’s successor.

Rouhani published an open letter of protest, a rare occurrence in these circumstances in Iran, accusing the Guardian Council of sidelining reformists and entrenching the power of conservatives. He also said he was writing to “defend republicanism”. That was seen as alluding to reports that Mojtaba Khamenei, the supreme leader’s 54-year-old son could also be a candidate for succession.

The son taking over could prove to be problematic for the Islamic Republic which criticises the hereditary Sunni states in the region. Some critics also argue Mojtaba does not have the adequate theological seniority to take on the highest spiritual role in the country.

Mojtaba Khamenei does, however, have the credentials for defending conservative values and acting against dissent, having reportedly taken over the Basij militia that cracked down on protests after the 2009 election. He is also said to have been in favour of the draconian measures taken against recent demonstrations.

The course Iran now takes will have a major impact on the country, the Middle East and beyond. It seems unlikely that the hardline establishment will willingly loosen its grip on power. The confrontation between Iran and its adversaries, especially Israel and the US, is set to continue.