Why the pandemic is a bigger election threat to Donald Trump than Joe Biden

Small wonder that one of Donald Trump’s most repeated claims at his frequent rallies is that, before what he calls the “China virus” arrived, America had “the greatest economy in history”. Leaving aside the almost comical meaninglessness of such a grandiose remark, he had a point. The US economy was indeed performing relatively well, if unevenly, and by February this year the president’s habitually lacklustre approval ratings had occasionally turned net positive. Had an election been held then, President Trump might conceivably have won his second term.

At that point, in other words, the voters knew very well what they would be getting with Mr Trump. He was a known quantity: obviously and painfully divisive. His flaws, though, were plain to see, and were played out endlessly, not just by the so-called mainstream media but, in blatant acts of self-incrimination, by the president himself. His excesses, failures and successes in foreign policy; his half-finished “wall”; his treatment of child refugees; his failings on healthcare; the Russian interference; the impeachable phone call to Ukraine; the erratic arguments with old friends and foes… all came and went, and the base was holding steady. He might not have deserved to win, and a victory might have meant, as it would now, that American democracy and civic society took another step towards closet fascism, but the vagaries of the electoral college might have delivered for him again. Many of his supporters still love him.  

As things stand, though, the 45th president seems set to lose. Covid and the explosion of anger over race, at least according to the polling evidence, shredded the president’s standing among key sectors of the electorate, many well represented in the battleground states he needs to retain. These were, in their different ways, unpredictable crises that would test the ability of any chief executive. Yet that is the point; leaders are elected to stand ready to face extraordinary  challenges. Whatever strengths Mr Trump has – a certain resilience and all-out aggression included – were not suited to suppressing a pandemic or calming burning cities. Like, say, 9/11, Pearl Harbour, the Great Depression or the war in Vietnam, past presidents have had to be judged on their performance in steering America safely past danger. Mr Trump, not to put too fine a point on it, bungled things when the going really got tough.  

Will he lose because of the lives lost to Covid and the disfiguring of America’s race relations? When it is remarked that Hillary Clinton was ahead in the polls in 2016 and still lost, that is true, and cause for caution. Yet the pollsters have corrected their biases (they say) and the Democrats have sharpened up their campaigning.  

The obvious weakness on the Democrat side is the candidate. Joe Biden has many qualities that Mr Trump lacks, and vital ones for a leader who will be called upon to heal suppurating wounds. He at least has policies – the Republicans have declined to produce a manifesto. He will, if chosen, restore dignity to the office of president, and quit insulting people on Twitter. To not be Mr Trump is a plus in itself for many Americans sorely tired of the non-stop battling of the past four years.  

But as many Democrats concede, Mr Biden is far from perfect. His senior moments are a little concerning, and on purely actuarial grounds voters are obliged to take the vice presidential candidate Kamala Harris more seriously than usual. Fortunately, she has stood up well in the contest and survived the scrutiny she has been subjected to. It would be quite a revolution if the self-described “nationalist” and populist Trump was to be replaced, with a brief interregnum, by America’s first woman president. That would be no bad thing in itself, but it does indicate how the advanced age of both the principals has meant voters have also had to consider their “side bets” – Ms Harris and Vice President Pence.  

Presidents who serve only a single term while seeking re-election form a small club that no one wants to be a member of. In a century, only Herbert Hoover in 1932, Jimmy Carter in 1980 and George HW Bush (1992) were turned down by the voters at the second time of asking. To a greater or lesser extent, all three incumbents lost at a time of economic difficulty and when America was suffering a sense of malaise. They were beaten by attractive, charismatic figures who offered hope, a new deal, and a better tomorrow – Franklin Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton. It is difficult to put “sleepy Joe” in that same bracket; but in reality, it is not Mr Biden who will eject Mr Trump from the White House, if it comes to it. It will be in large part the coronavirus pandemic and Mr Trump’s hopeless response to it. If he goes, it will be his own fault.