Trump may soon depart the White House but his influence will haunt America

If Donald Trump does end up joining the club of one-term presidents – though he seems determined to squat in the White House by fair means or foul – he has left a huge, indelible mark on American political life. Whatever you might think of him, he managed to persuade more than 65 million Americans to endorse his record and attempt to give him four more years. This time, there hasn’t been too much talk of Russian or Chinese interference.  

Trump voters came out and backed their man this week, not as some inchoate protest at being neglected by the Washington “swamp”, but as an incumbent with a mixed record, to say the least. Even after the inflammatory, racially charged rhetoric, the childish tweets, the catastrophic response to Covid-19, global isolation, an economic policy geared to the rich, and the latest invitation to civil unrest by his supporters – even after all of that – the “base” remained mostly loyal. Mr Trump was far from humiliated, and had the election taken place in the spring he might well have won.  

Mr Trump did not create the “left behind” as a politically homeless constituency searching for an authoritarian nationalist leader; but he was more than happy to exploit their discontent and pitch them against their fellow citizens.

Mr Trump’s whole political approach was not to reach out via moderation to the middle ground of middle America; rather it was to make his supporters angry. Hence the politically incorrect speeches, the insulting paranoid tweets and his preference for adoring mass rallies. His supporters, sometimes acting like a cult, were responsive to baseless allegations that “they” were stealing the election. Trumpism was essentially a shifting set of conspiracy theories. It was – if not ultimately – a successful strategy for him, but it exacted a heavy cost on American society.  

So while Mr Trump didn’t invent America’s divisions, least of all the centuries-old tensions around race, he certainly exacerbated them. All the more important, then, that the grievances of those in post-industrial areas are listened to by someone with better ideas than Mr Trump’s. They are still facing stagnant living standards or even ones lower than their parents’ enjoyed in easier times, residing in communities swept aside by globalisation and feeling as though their rulers put their interests last. They are concerned about immigration, their rights to own a gun, and are socially conservative, often with evangelical Christian convictions.

Some Latinos developed a morbid fear of the Democrats as crypto-socialists and closet communists. They at least deserve to be listened to, rather than condemned as a basket of deplorables, as someone once said. They, and Trumpism, are not going away, in other words.  

Mr Trump and his surprisingly effective campaign also leave behind a structural legacy for his successor, assuming it is Joe Biden. The Senate will remain in Republican hands, for example, which will stymie his room for manoeuvre and any hint of radicalism in his programme. Mr Biden seems unlikely to command an overwhelming popular mandate and, besides, he is no Bernie Sanders in any case. If he wants to solidify the fragile Democratic winning coalition, he cannot afford to veer too far to the left.  

The Supreme Court is also safely conservative, thanks to President Trump’s flukeish opportunities to appoint new justices. Their lasting influence on American society will be greater than that of many presidents. To a degree, some of Mr Trump’s values will live on through the “Trump justices”, but they will still be independent in thought and judgement.  

Mr Trump may soon depart the White House in favour of Trump Tower and Mar-a-Lago, but his influence will live on. His personal reputation has been damaged by his conduct in office, though. If his presidency ends after four years it will, fittingly, be with a late night temper tantrum and accusations of a vast fraud and conspiracy (presumably orchestrated by Mr Biden and the Democrats). It is not a good look.