Confusion over school closures is further evidence that Boris Johnson needs a new education secretary

Not for the first time in the coronavirus pandemic, the government has ended up with a last-minute change of policy, which confuses the public and gives people little confidence that ministers are on top of the crisis. They have approved what will be a postcode lottery for the reopening of schools after the Christmas break.  

Although ministers said the majority of primary schools would return as planned on Monday, secondary schools will be closed to most pupils for two weeks, with students in exam years returning on 11 January and other secondary and college students going back on 18 January. 

In London, all primaries will now shut, following a change of policy that would have seen some remain open, with an estimated 12,000 pupils crossing borders to attend their school. This patchwork approach made no sense, and was at odds with the government’s refusal to place parts of London with low infection rates in different tiers of restrictions to those with higher figures.

On Friday night, the government appeared to make a U-turn on top of its Wednesday U-turn, as council leaders in the capital were told that all primary schools would remain closed, after all. A case of better late than never, but at the cost of causing even more uncertainty and stress.  

The government's handling of the issue was already chaotic. In announcing a phased post-Christmas return, it was dragged into rushed changes it appeared to be in denial about. Yet again, it put an intolerable burden on heads and teachers, who should have been told about the new year regime before they started their Christmas break. School leaders are understandably worried about how they will safely conduct the mass testing, which the government now appears to have made compulsory.

The policy has all the hallmarks of a messy compromise between Gavin Williamson, the education secretary, who wants to keep schools open, and ministers such as Michael Gove and Matt Hancock, who reluctantly but rightly want a tougher approach to combat the threat from the more virulent variant of the virus.  

The science, which is supposed to guide government policy, is on the side of greater restrictions. The Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) has warned ministers: “It is highly unlikely that measures with stringency and adherence in line with the measures in England in November [when schools were open] would be sufficient to maintain R below one in the presence of the new variant.” 

Despite the grim daily figures on infections, hospital admissions and deaths, Mr Williamson is “absolutely confident” there will be no further delays to schools reopening. He wants to pose as the parents’ champion but a YouGov survey found that almost seven in 10 people support keeping schools shut for two weeks after Christmas.

The alarming new evidence from Imperial College London, showing how transmissible the new variant is, suggests Mr Williamson’s optimism is misplaced. Despite the undoubted damage that a prolonged closure of schools would do, and the likely impact on this summer’s exams, the government might be forced to bite the bullet in order to protect lives. It would be better to get ahead of the game rather than announce yet more last-minute changes, which cause confusion for parents, pupils and school staff.  

Mr Williamson was lucky to keep his job while his permanent secretary and the head of Ofqual lost theirs after the exam grades fiasco last summer. It is easy to see why he is often kept off the media by the government’s spin doctors; when he announced the strategy this week, he failed to inspire confidence. The education secretary’s post is too important to be handed to an ally the prime minister wants to keep inside his tent because, as a former Tory chief whip, he would be dangerous outside of it. When Boris Johnson reshuffles his cabinet, he must appoint someone capable of much stronger and effective leadership at the Department for Education.