The Brexit deal vote is the start of another long process – not the end

The start of Brexit has taken so long and been so torturous that the end of the beginning is being mistaken for the end. 

That the House of Commons has now passed the deal on the future relationship into law, and the European Commission has done the same, does not mark the end of Brexit, in any way. Nor is it likely to mark its relegation into some kind of second order political issue.

That is wishful thinking. The point that has now been reached was not meant to take four and a half years. Slow travel can make a journey feel more epic. But Lands End and John O’Groats are the same distance apart whether you walk, cycle, drive or fly. That this deal has taken so long does not mean it is any greater, or more significant, than it would be had it been done in a week.

There is no more certain evidence that the deal will carry on being highly contentious than the clear fact that, even now, Boris Johnson appears incapable of telling the truth about it. At the despatch box of the House of Commons, he claimed that, in five years, British fishermen will be able to catch every single fish in British waters. This is technically true, but essentially false. If they choose to do this, it is liable to completely collapse the deal, something that can be done at any point, not only in five years’ time.

But here is the point. From 1 January, things will certainly change. Brexit has been talked about for so long, but without it happening, that it seems hard even to conceive that we will soon not be debating its potential problems but its real ones.

For so long, it has all been bluster, but that is about to not be the case. Even now, days before the end of the transition period, Mr Johnson is free to talk about the successes of the deal, about tariff-free, quota-free and friction-free trade, about how his deal will enable “even more” trade with the EU than the current arrangements, which is a demonstrably dubious claim.

Soon, it will not be a matter of debate, but a matter of reality. It will be a matter of reality, for example, that the UK services sector, which, to borrow a phrase, sells more to the EU than it does to us, will clearly be seen to have been badly let down.

Decline will begin in earnest, and Mr Johnson will not be able to cover it over. For years, Brexiteers have made claims about what Brexit will be like. But there is shortly to be no more soothsaying, no more false promises, just actual life as lived and experienced.

To reluctantly borrow a sporting analogy, the government appears genuinely to believe that now the deal for the star signing is over the line, the fans will take precious little interest in how he plays, and if he turns out to be a complete flop, they will not care. This is highly unlikely.

History tends to show that people value economic power more highly than abstract rights. It will be interesting to see how much British voters prefer their new found sovereignty, having taken back control, when the price is significant relative economic decline compared with their nearest neighbours.    

Brexit is not over. It is just getting started.