The west is weak and divided, Russia is aggressive and determined – things do not look good for Ukraine

The west is weak and divided, Russia is aggressive and determined. It does not look good for a free and independent Ukraine. Or, rather, what’s left of it.

Already partly dismembered by Russia – the annexation of Crimea and occupation of eastern Ukraine by Russia and her proxies should be warning enough – there is every indication that the Kremlin is plotting invasion. There is strong intelligence, at least according to western sources, that a “false flag” action is being planned as one option to act as a bogus casus belli for war.

Indeed, there is little effort on Russia’s part to disguise its malign intentions. Russian troops and materiel have been massing on Ukraine’s borders for some months, and as such have created their own momentum for conflict. They are obviously not there for defensive purposes – the notion of a Ukrainian war of aggression on its giant neighbour is ludicrous – and sooner or later they must either be used or sent back to base.

As to Russia’s motives, Vladimir Putin is an avowed ethnonationalist. Like others in the darker episodes of European history, he has made it his mission to protect and unite what he regards as the different tribes of Russia and ethnic Russian peoples within one political entity, a tight confederation dominated, naturally, by Russia itself.

Moreover, he posits a partial, in all senses, historical narrative that paints Ukraine as some immutable and permanent ally of Russia. Even if this were so in the past – and the relationship was often more imperial than collaborative – today Ukraine wishes to be independent, leaning towards the European Union and Nato, not President Putin’s club of vassal states such as Belarus and Kazakhstan.

For the purposes of conjuring a western threat that does not exist, and for his own egoistic political purposes, Mr Putin also encourages the idea that Russia is being encircled – another grisly reminder of past aggressors. He is most aggrieved that many former eastern bloc states, ex-allies of the Soviet Union, have chosen to join Nato.

He should understand that countries such as Poland and Hungary, with their histories, feel more threatened by Russia than they should; and, in any case, they are independent nations free to make their own decisions about security.

While it is true, pragmatically, that the west equally underestimated Russian sensitivities about its loss of empire, status and perceived safety, there was never any chance that eastern European countries once occupied by Russian troops weren’t going to make their own provisions for their defence rather than relying on Moscow’s expressions of friendship.

Ironically, what has happened in Ukraine, which is not a Nato member, can only have confirmed to them their wisdom in making America their ally. It is little wonder that Finland, especially, and Sweden are considering joining Nato.

Yet only up to a point, because no one in Europe can feel entirely at ease with America’s unwillingness to fight for Ukraine, which has been made perfectly apparent by President Biden and, before him, presidents Trump and Obama.

Putin has also drawn the obvious lesson from America’s abandonment of Afghanistan about Washington’s reliability. If Ukraine is invaded, then there will be economic sanctions of apparently unprecedented severity imposed on Russia by the west, but such threats seem to mean little to the hard-faced people in the Kremlin.

They must know that, historically, sanctions short of war have been easy to evade, and they tend to be dropped eventually. Besides, Russia can retaliate by cutting off natural gas supplies to Europe.

Nor can Ukraine look to Europe for assistance. Germany, in particular, has openly said it will not fight for Ukraine, even if Britain and others are willing to send military advisers and weapons as some sort of deterrent.

Post-Brexit, the UK has little influence over what passes for EU security policy, and the EU is even weaker as a result, but so too is the UK. It seems only a matter of time before Russia makes a move. The time has long passed when Mr Putin could be deterred.

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Even without hindsight, had Ukraine been allowed to join Nato or even the EU, the dynamics of the situation now would be much different.

In addition, if America, France, Germany, Britain and other European powers had stationed troops in Ukraine in a defensive stance, things would probably be less tense. Usually, it is regarded as a cardinal diplomatic error to indicate to a hostile power that you won’t even try to defend yourself.

The strength of deterrence rests on the uncertainty about how the other side will react, and an aggressor has to take into account the possibility that they will lose a war. That is the value and strength of collective security to smaller nations. With Ukraine, Russia knows that it will be faced with a fight and ongoing resistance, but only by Ukraine, a much smaller power.

It was not so long ago that President Trump suggested that Nato had passed its usefulness to the United States. President Biden says different, but Russia must now wonder if America and Europe would fight for the Baltic states or even Poland or Finland. After Ukraine, who’s next?