Is this the next target on Russia’s hitlist?

On the first anniversary of the ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh‘s 120,000-strong Armenian population by Azerbaijan, another storm is gathering in the South Caucasus – this time with the direct connivance of Russia.

Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, has recently signalled apparent support for Azerbaijan’s ambitions to establish the “Zangezur Corridor” through Armenia’s southern Syunik province, one of the conditions set originally by Azerbaijan to sign a peace agreement. This proposed corridor would effectively sever Armenia’s connection to Iran and slice through its sovereign territory, creating a direct land route between Azerbaijan – a Turkic nation – and Turkey itself.

This comes just over a month after Azerbaijan purportedly dropped the demand from the peace agreement. So, it begs the question: what is Russia up to?

The implications are alarming, for Armenia’s territorial integrity and broader regional stability. They echo Russia’s dark history of meddling with borders and sovereignty in post-Soviet states – and require attention from the international community.

The brutal ethnic cleansing of Nagorno-Karabakh’s Armenians in late September 2023 came after Azerbaijan tightened its stranglehold on the Lachin Corridor, cutting off essential supplies to the enclave. It occurred under the watchful eye of Russian “peacekeepers”, who appeared complicit in their inaction.

Within days, Nagorno-Karabakh was emptied of Armenians, its ancient Christian heritage erased in the blink of an eye.

Indeed, Russia has a long and sordid history of destabilising borders and supporting secessionist movements that serve its geopolitical agenda. From the breakaway region of Transnistria in Moldova in the 1990s to its illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014, its land grabs in Georgia and veiled threats against the Baltics, Moscow has demonstrated a willingness to violate international law to expand its influence over ex-Soviet territories.

The situation in Armenia is yet another chapter in this continuing saga of subversion and coercion – and it has its origins in the strategic alliance Russian president Vladimir Putin finalised with Azerbaijan’s Ilham Aliyev – two dictators who run repressive, kleptocratic regimes and who stand accused of spreading aggression, chaos and corruption.

The alarm bells were set off last month when Putin visited Baku, and Lavrov said Moscow backed the corridor and that Armenia was sabotaging efforts to open it.

Historically, the Zangezur region has been an area of strategic importance. Zangezur has long been inhabited by Armenians and was part of the Armenian kingdoms during antiquity. In the early 20th century, the region became a contested area between Armenia and Azerbaijan during the brief existence of the First Republic of Armenia (1918-1920) and the Azerbaijan Democratic Republic.

After the Soviet Union took control of the South Caucasus, Josef Stalin made several territorial adjustments, awarding Zangezur to Soviet Armenia in 1921, while the exclave of Nakhchivan – separated from the rest of Azerbaijan by Zangezur – went to Soviet Azerbaijan, creating the modern borders.

A Russian-brokered ceasefire on 10 November 2020, which ended months of fighting between Azerbaijan and Armenia, included a stipulation for “unblocking” regional transportation routes and called for the construction of a new transportation link between Azerbaijan and Nakhchivan, passing through Armenia, to be administered by Russian border guards. But it’s clear that Azerbaijan is plotting a takeover, not the use of a road.

This would have major implications for regional geopolitics: Turkey strongly supports the project, as it would further integrate Turkey and Azerbaijan economically and strategically, strengthening the Turkic alliance. It would also give Turkey access to central Asia through Azerbaijan, enhancing its influence in the broader region. Armenians see the corridor as vital to its security.

The West must be vigilant. Armenia, a small, landlocked democracy in the South Caucasus, is facing existential threats on multiple fronts – part of a broader strategy by Azerbaijan, aided by Russia’s opportunism and Turkey’s ambitions, to weaken and marginalise it. This is despite Russia continuing to pose as Armenia’s “ally” through the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), an alliance that has proven toothless in protecting Armenia.

It is vital that Western powers step in where Russia has failed. The European Union and the United States should unequivocally oppose any attempt to force Armenia to cede control over the Zangezur region. Diplomatic efforts, sanctions, and public condemnation should all be on the table to prevent this latest outrage from becoming a reality. Armenia’s sovereignty cannot be treated as a bargaining chip in Russia’s power games or Azerbaijan’s regional ambitions.

Moreover, the West must make it clear to Turkey that its support for Azerbaijan in this endeavour will not be tolerated. Turkey, as a Nato member, should be held to a higher standard of accountability. Its aggressive posturing in the South Caucasus, combined with its military assistance to Azerbaijan during the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war, demonstrates Ankara’s willingness to destabilise the region for its own gain.

Nato cannot stand idly by while one of its members plays a central role in threatening the territorial integrity of Armenia, a neighbour whose security is intrinsically linked to the region’s stability, and which is clearly interested in close relations with the West.

While Europe has become increasingly dependent on Azerbaijani gas, in the wake of the war in Ukraine, economic interests should not blind the West to outrages against international law and the notion that smaller nations should not be bullied by aggressive neighbours backed by adventurist powers.

Concrete steps should be taken to strengthen Armenia’s defences, including security guarantees, increased diplomatic engagement, and closer economic ties with the EU and Nato. The presence of Western peacekeeping forces or monitors in sensitive areas such as the Zangezur region should also be considered to prevent further Russian and Azerbaijani aggression.

Armenia cannot be left to face this threat alone, especially after having already been abandoned during the Nagorno-Karabakh crisis. Now is the time for the West to stand by Armenia and make it clear to Russia, Azerbaijan and Turkey that such actions will not be tolerated. We must not wait for another tragedy like the one that befell Nagorno-Karabakh.

Lord Alton is a former Liverpool MP and a member of the joint House of Lords/House of Commons human rights committee