Rishi Sunak will need a miracle to recover from Tory sleaze

The prime minister may have thought that he had acted decisively in sacking his party chairman, albeit after a delay of several months, but he should be under no illusion about the damage the Zahawi tax affair has done to his personal ratings. Three months into his premiership, Rishi Sunak has lost his lead over Sir Keir Starmer on “best prime minister”, according to Ipsos/Mori, partly as result of the way he has handled his former party chairman.

Mr Sunak has enjoyed no “bounce” in the polls, and the Conservatives remain about 25 points behind Labour in the voting intention figures. At the cabinet awayday at Chequers last week, their election strategist Isaac Levido reportedly told the Tory high command that they had carved a “narrow path” to victory. It seems to be tapering away to a near-invisible track with every fresh dawn and fresh scandal.

Unfortunately for Mr Sunak, the departure of Nadhim Zahawi from government appears not to be the end of the matter. Questions about what the prime minister, and his two Conservative predecessors, knew about Mr Zahawi’s wrangles with the tax authorities – and when – persist. It remains strange that so many serious allegations about the then chancellor of the exchequer should have emerged into the public domain, from last July onwards, yet provoked so little interest from the three premiers Mr Zahawi served.

Calamitously, Mr Zahawi seems unwilling to go quietly. It is remarkable. Arguably, he has fallen so far short of the standards expected of those in public life that he should quit as an MP, or at least have the Tory whip removed. His utter lack of contrition would suggest further sanction would be justified. But, on the contrary, Mr Zahawi seems determined to challenge the report of the independent adviser on the ministerial code, Sir Laurie Magnus, and to do so publicly. This is unlikely to end well for the Conservative Party.

Mr Sunak pleads that his troubles date from before he was prime minister, with their debilitation effects lingering on in the body politic – “Long Boris”, as it’s been called. He is right about that, but Mr Sunak has had three months to clean out the stables (not including the heated premises Mr Zahawi’s thoroughbreds enjoy), and failed to do so. The voters aren’t much interested in process, or under which Tory premier the scandals arose. They simply see a concatenation of sleazy strokes that discredit the governing party, mostly, and politics in general. It all contributes to a feeling of weariness and a feeling it is “time for a change” – a lethal development for any party that has been in power for so long.

There is more to come. Mr Johnson will be grilled by the Commons Select Committee on Privileges. He is going to find it difficult to defend his statements to parliament about Partygate, and the spectacle, unprecedented, will simply remind the public once again about the repulsive hypocrisy of those in power during the Covid lockdowns.

At some point as well, the substantial body of bullying allegations against Dominic Raab will be settled, and Mr Sunak will be faced with the decision about whether to fire his deputy prime minister and justice secretary. Again, the origins of the story date back some years, but they add to numerous other examples of Tory MPs and ministers falling short of the standards the party or parliament expect of them.

Apart from Mr Johnson, Mr Sunak (his wife’s non dom status), and Mr Zahawi, the litany is long and highly varied: Suella Braverman, Matt Hancock, Chris Pincher, Owen Paterson, Neil Parish, Andrew Bridgen, Julian Knight, Priti Patel and one other anonymous Conservative MP – plus, of course, Baroness Mone and David Cameron and the Greensill lobbying affair. The names and details of every very different case tend to fade rapidly from consciousness, even among seasoned political journalists, but the unpleasant aftertaste lingers with the electorate.

It is probably beyond the powers of any prime minister when his party has been in power for almost 13 years to revive its fortunes and restore its reputation for probity and competence. Mr Sunak has shown signs that he understands the scale of the task, and what is required, but time and again his colleagues let him and the country down. It would seem the electorate have already decided enough is enough. His only hope is a John Major 1992-style miracle recovery.