Forget ‘awaydays’ – what Rishi Sunak must do now is reshuffle

As the cabinet gathers for its “awayday” in the Elizabethan splendour of Chequers, it’s tempting to wonder what the mood was like around the elegant drawing rooms and antique conference tables. When Rishi Sunak looked around him, how many of the flawed personalities really commanded his full confidence? How many can he count on to be loyal? Which ones should he sack? Which to promote? Which would be more trouble outside the tent than inside?

Mr Sunak needs to do something to stamp his authority on his government – and fast. If he is to make any progress in the 18 months or so left until the next general election, he needs a team he can trust to stay out of trouble, carry out policies and “deliver”, as the cliche goes. It’s not much to ask, but obviously harder than it sounds these days, and the Tory party looks to be fresh out of ideas and talent. A day out in Buckinghamshire isn’t going to change that.

“Difficult” local elections are coming up in May – and even compared with the low base of 2019, when Theresa May was close to her nadir, they will be a disaster for the Tories. Quite how big a blow depends on the next few weeks. Meanwhile, Boris Johnson and his acolytes are watching and waiting.

According to the briefings, Britain’s top table spent some of the day focusing on Mr Sunak’s five priorities for 2023, outlined in a recent speech: halving inflation; achieving at least minimal economic growth; making some sort of modest progress on reducing national debt; doing the same on NHS waiting lists and “stopping” the small boats crossing the Channel. The good news for the cabinet is that, with the exception of the migration pledge, which seems needlessly absolute and ambitious, the pledges are so timid they should be easily achieved by the next election, or on course to be delivered. As the sluggish economy improves, there may be an equally measly uptick in Tory support next year.

None of that will be sufficient to stop the rot, however. The bad news is that there are neither the resources – nor, seemingly, the ideas – to do much that will be radical, popular or both in the rest of this parliament. The chancellor of the exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, will no doubt take his colleagues through the slightly improved but still unpromising economic prospects, and will tell them there’s no room for tax cuts in the March budget. He will tell them that any relaxation in the fight against inflation will have to wait until 2024 (if then). Any residual longings for the Truss-Kwarteng dash for growth will be crushed. Again.

If Nadhim Zahawi, the Conservative Party chair, has the chutzpah to get up and make a presentation about the party’s polling and its unfavourable, sleazy image, he will tell colleagues some home truths about their dismal prospects, especially among the young, renters and the disillusioned “red wall”.

What to do? Apart from carrying on carrying on, and trying to repair the party’s lost reputation for economic competence and integrity, Mr Sunak can still drop the worst liabilities from his cabinet and promote the few talents still around, in the hope of something approaching a relaunch.

Obviously, this isn’t the sort of thing that can be discussed openly at a cabinet awayday, but as the gang uneasily eye each other up, some know their days are numbered, and this could well be their last excursion to Chequers. Mr Zahawi, for example, should know better than anyone else why he is doomed. As they glance at the news flow on their smartphones, the assembled cabinet no doubt noted the head of HMRC commenting that tax penalties, such as Mr Zahawi’s, are not levied for “innocent mistakes”.

The claims for bullying against Dominic Raab, unaccountably deputy prime minister and minister for justice, seem to be approaching epidemic proportions – and a denouement. And the home secretary, Suella Braverman, having been forced out by Liz Truss and reinstated for political purposes by Mr Sunak (he needed her band of hard-right fans to secure the leadership), remains her own worst enemy.

The accident-prone Ms Braverman is protected only by the presence of Robert Jenrick as her junior minister and unofficial No 10 minder. The last few weeks have also been unkind to Steve Barclay, the health secretary, who simply refuses to take medical advice about pay and conditions. His counterpart at Transport, Mark Harper, at least tries to sound emollient. No one, it hardly needs adding, would miss Therese Coffey.

A big reshuffle, then, coupled with as quiet and painless a Budget as can be managed, is the best the prime minister can do in the coming weeks. With Boris Johnson soon to appear before the privileges committee to defend himself against allegations of misleading parliament over Partygate, Mr Sunak desperately needs to put more distance between himself and the past.

If he needs a new party chair popular with the grassroots and who can communicate with the public, then a ready replacement for Mr Zahawi is at hand: Penny Morduant. Mr Raab could be replaced by virtually any competent middle-ranking minister of state with passing legal experience; and Mr Jenrick could be bumped up and would make a more convincing home secretary than Ms Braverman, who doesn’t even believe in the migration policy she is trying to implement (unlike Mr Sunak, she wants out of the European Convention on Human Rights).

None of these changes are likely to overhaul a 20-point Labour lead, but they’d at least put some vigour into the Tory attack, and make the team that bit better at getting its messages across without constant distractions and scandals. It would, in other words, remove some of the negatives. It would make the administration look a little more competent. It’s something for them to take into the local elections and beyond.