The ‘forever war’ in the Middle East will go on until Palestinians have their own state

When British planes joined American airstrikes on the Houthis in Yemen, voices were raised in the UK warning against “escalation” of the Gaza conflict to a wider war in the Middle East. There were similar voices on the pro-Palestinian march in London today, warning that the US airstrikes against allegedly Iranian-backed targets in Iraq and Syria risk a wider war.

In one sense, these warnings are misconceived, in that it was the Houthis, formally known as Ansar Allah or “Supporters of God”, who were engaged in escalation, using drones and missiles to attack international shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity with the Palestinians of Gaza. And it was Iranian-supported militia who “escalated” a conflict that otherwise did not exist when they attacked US forces in Jordan, killing three soldiers.

The responses to these attacks cannot be defined as “escalation” if they are trying to prevent and deter further attacks, and if they are proportionate to the initial attack. Unfortunately, in such situations proportionality is very much in the eye of the beholder. Palestinians in Gaza, and their many supporters around the world, do not regard the Israeli response to the 7 October atrocities as proportionate. Some of them even regard the US-British strikes against the Houthis as a display of excessive force, although it is hard to argue that attacks on international shipping should be simply ignored.

The US response to the attack in Jordan has certainly been stronger and over a wider area than expected. The Pentagon claimed to have hit 85 targets in Syria and Iraq, and the death toll has been at least 10 times that in the original strike. Whether that is a necessary and proportionate response is impossible to judge at this stage. We would, however, tend towards scepticism, given the need for a US president in an election year to look as if he is responding vigorously to threats to American interests around the world. We have been here many times before, such as the time Bill Clinton bombed an aspirin factory in Sudan in retaliation for attacks on US embassies in Tanzania and Kenya in 1998.

The truth is that escalation, and the responsibility for it, is not what matters. The question is how to prevent the Israel-Hamas conflict, and the terrorism aimed at US interests across the region, from merging into one larger conflagration. That involves understanding not just the Israel-Palestine situation, but the ways it intersects with anti-US, anti-Western Islamist ideology. We have to understand why there are US troops stationed at a remote desert outpost in Jordan, near the border with Syria and Iraq. They are there at the invitation of the Jordanian government, presumably to supply US forces in Syria, who are trying to protect people from their own murderous government, and to try to prevent the flow of terrorists and weapons across those borders.

The base at “Tower 22” in Jordan is a reminder that the US is still engaged at a low level across the Middle East, trying to contain the malign spheres of Russian and Iranian influence. Those US leaders from Barack Obama to Joe Biden who have made glib promises about ending “forever wars” should know that it would not be wise for the US to withdraw completely from the region.

And they should know that the only way to “de-escalate” tensions in the Middle East permanently would be to make progress in putting right the injustices suffered by the Palestinian people. President Biden has tried to put pressure on Benjamin Netanyahu’s government to reverse his opposition to a two-state solution – so far to little effect. And Lord Cameron, the British foreign secretary, has shown some leadership – in a supporting role – by suggesting that the UK might bring forward its recognition of a Palestinian state.

Of course, mere recognition, without agreement with the Israeli government and without the institutional infrastructure of an independent state, would be purely symbolic. But unless international opinion is mobilised behind a settlement that could be accepted by the Israeli and Palestinian peoples, the dangers of escalating conflict across the region will continue for ever.