No wonder polling shows a second referendum would yield a Remain vote. We are in a mess

There’s no other way to say it: Brexit is a mess right now. So it’s not a great shock that the public would prefer to remain in the EU rather than accept Theresa May’s deal or a no-deal Brexit, according to a recent poll.

This pro-EU stance is likely to be bolstered on Saturday with a mass demonstration in favour of a people’s vote. The upcoming march will be a long cry from the soggy, bedraggled mess that was the Brexit Betrayal march. Not least because those who called for this one might even bother to take part.

Polls must always be taken with a pinch of salt. Remain might be leading the way now, but it doesn’t mean a referendum would automatically be won by that side – just as it didn’t last time. Polls don’t predict the future, but are a snapshot of the moment.

But what a moment this is. May’s deal has failed two so-called meaningful votes and she is blocked from holding a third unless she can change it significantly (it’s unclear how a vote can be described as meaningful if the result is readily dismissed so often). As the EU will only grant a short extension if the next vote passes, we may still crash out. Or need a much longer extension.

The Brexiteers have played their hand badly. Largely because they expected to lose. Never has there been such a collection of sore winners as this. In crying treason at everything from New Year’s fireworks to parliamentary procedure they have lost any sense of rationality and proportion. They revert to constant victim status despite winning a referendum, being in government and the fact that the one person still taking them seriously is Theresa May.

The endless drumbeat emanating from the European Research Group that any Brexit short of a no-deal Brexit is a betrayal of the vote may have helped their short-term aim of keeping May wedded to her impossible and contradictory red lines. But between the ERG’s demands and those of the DUP, her deal – that the ERG so hates – is, in reality, all that was available. And they still say they won’t support it.

May has now indicated that she is minded to step down if there is a long extension to Article 50. To which there has been much rejoicing from all those who don’t support her – ie everyone.

But for Remainers, or even those seeking a soft Brexit, this jubilation may be premature. If May steps down now the internal dynamics of the Tory party mean that the future shape of Brexit – both the withdrawal agreement and any future deal – will be determined by a contest to be the greatest Tory extremist. Promises made in any future leadership bid will not be aimed at bringing the country together but winning a majority of around 100,000 deeply unrepresentative Tory members.

May is a disaster as a politician. I do not fear her leaving out of any sense of fondness for what would be lost. But in recent years politics has had a terrifying habit of asking the question “how much worse can it get?”, and then showing us the answer.

Thanks to the Fixed Term Parliaments Act, a new Tory leader could take us all the way to 2022. That gives them time to deliver the most disastrous vision of Brexit possible. Anyone who thinks they wouldn’t do so, and that common sense would instead prevail, has not been paying attention.

If these polls are right, Brexit is becoming less popular as the horror show unravels. People are scared and want a chance to put things right.

We are suffering a shameful lack of leadership. That once again this is down to the internal politics of the Tory part is disgraceful. That these internal pressures may see the country led by a hard Brexiteer for the next three vital years – that’s the most terrifying thing of all.