Will punishing the bookies deter our gambling politicians? Don’t bet on it

What is surprising to me about the seemingly never ending political betting scandal is that it’s taken such a long time to emerge.

Just look at the behaviour we’ve witnessed in Westminster and Whitehall over the last few years: boozing – including at Downing Street parties during lockdown, sexual harassment, MPs looking at porn in the chamber, to name just a handful of examples. Is anyone really surprised that a few of our elected representatives fancy a bit of a flutter from time to time?

Politics is a high stakes game, and parliament is full of highly ambitious, type-A personalities who like making rules for other people but don’t think they should have to follow them. Quite a few of these people seemingly like to bet.

On the night of Donald Trump’s victory, I learned that a Tory MP had placed a four-figure bet on Hillary Clinton at a very short price (about 1/8 if memory serves me) just before Florida’s results came in. It’s a faux pas among people who gamble – for the record I am among them – to laugh at others’ losses because, frankly, we’ve all been there. But stupidity has always been a capital crime, and that bet struck me as a prime example.

Then the betting scandal broke.

Betting on the date of the election with prior knowledge – as some Tory officials, police officers and even parliamentary candidates are alleged to have done – is obviously the most serious of the many sins that have been committed, because the use of confidential information is, well, cheating. The Gambling Commission is investigating.

But then there’s Sir Philip Davies allegedly betting £8,000 on himself to lose. And Kevin Craig, the Labour candidate running for Central Suffolk and North Ipswich, doing much the same thing. This might look logical given what the polls (and the odds, which we’ll get to) are saying. Perhaps Sir Philip was looking for an upside against the painful potential loss of his office?

He has neither confirmed nor denied the reports, only saying that he had done nothing illegal. Mr Craig, meanwhile, has claimed his wager was “for charity”, and apologised to his party. Rightly so.

Of course, we’re now seeing a lot of excitable calls for crackdowns and new rules to bring the industry to heel. But it is not the industry that is at fault here, and there is a very simple solution: ban MPs and anyone working at Westminster from betting on UK politics. After all, similar rules are already in place for other sports, in order to maintain their integrity – something our politics could use a little more of at the moment.

However, you and I can place all the bets we want. Since my last update the odds on Labour winning a thumping victory have shortened dramatically. The party is now a best priced 1/41 to win the most seats and 1/20 to govern with a majority, prices at which I don’t think it’s worth playing.

The betting is reflecting the polls, with the Tories a short price (1/2) to end up with less than 100 seats. I might be tempted by the other side of the equation (6/4) based on the phenomenon of “shy Tories”, and the fact that older people, who reliably turn up to the polls, tend to favour conservative politics. On the other hand, the national seismograph has been reading “political earthquake” for some time now.

There are some fascinating prices in individual constituencies, mind. One betting company thinks Labour (4/7) will see off its former leader-turned-independent Jeremy Corbyn (5/4) in Islington North. Ditto another problematic ex-member, George Galloway, (9/4) in Rochdale, where the party is an odds-on 4/9. Cue sighs of relief from Sir Keir Starmer’s office.

Nigel Farage has been heavily backed (1/7) to win in Clacton – his eighth attempt to enter Parliament, although the price is now prohibitive. It seems crazy to imagine that Labour (7/4) could unseat Rishi Sunak (2/5) in Richmond and Northallerton, but the party clearly has a shot. They have an even better one in the once rock-solid South West Norfolk. Liz Truss, who has reportedly been campaigning with unusual energy, is nonetheless odds (6/5) against Labour (67/100).

If Truss does get turfed out, it would stand as the night’s “Portillo moment” (named for former cabinet minister Michael, who famously lost his seat when Tony Blair swept to power in 1997). Are those odds really credible, given she had a majority north of 26,000 and a 69 per cent share of the vote last time around? Apparently so.

Ultimately, punishing the bookies won’t solve anything. The lesson for us all here is to heed the message at the end of every betting advert and “gamble responsibly” – advice I’m sure some of those under investigation by the Gambling Commission wish they’d listened to.