The glaring red flags in Biden’s re-election prospects against Trump

Former president Donald Trump is all but guaranteed to once again assume the mantle of the Republican standard bearer in the 2024 presidential primary.

On the other side of the aisle, President Joe Biden faces no credible challenge for the Democratic nomination next year, despite some general dissatisfaction among voters with the idea of casting a ballot for him again.

But that means the American public is likely set for another slog of an election that will be incredibly tight. On Tuesday, The New York Times and Siena College released a poll showing that Mr Biden continues to have a dismally low 39 per cent approval rating. To boot, in a hypothetical rematch, Mr Biden and Mr Trump are in a dead heat at 43 per cent.

Furthermore, the poll showed that 16 per cent of those polled had unfavourable views of both Mr Trump and Mr Biden, though Mr Biden has a slight advantage among these voters that former Bill Clinton adviser Doug Sosnik calls “double doubters.”

While Mr Biden is no longer in the precarious position he was last year when The Times and Siena College found that nearly two-thirds of Democratic voters wanted the party to nominate someone else, he still faces major structural hurdles.

About 30 per cent of those polled said that they planned to vote for Mr Biden said they wished that Democrats would nominate someone else, but only 20 per cent of Democrats said that they would be enthusiastic if Mr Biden were their party’s nominee. Fifty-one per cent said that they would be satisfied but not enthusiastic, hardly a vote of confidence.

In the same respect, only 23 per cent of registered thought that the country was headed in the right direction. While that is 10 per cent higher than it was last year, that still makes Mr Biden’s case for re-election harder since most people credit the president with the state of the country, for better or worse. Despite unemployment being low and inflation declining, only 20 per cent of Americans said the economy is in excellent or good shape, though that is a 10-point jump from last year.

This goes to the central conceit of Mr Biden’s entire 2020 candidacy and eventual presidency. Many Democratic activists openly expressed contempt at the idea that Mr Biden, who was first elected to the Senate in the 1970s and is the oldest person ever elected president, would represent a party coalition that prides itself on its diversity in terms of race and gender.

Far from a progressive, many activists also hoped that the party would nominate someone more in line with their priorities. But those “grass-tops” activists often were disconnected from the grassroots base of Democratic voters who simply wanted to defeat Mr Trump.

When he won the Democratic nomination thanks to those voters, Democratic activists and more progressive voters accepted that this was their best chance at stopping what they considered a presidency that threatened the country’s very existence.

Many of Mr Biden’s erstwhile critics have since gotten behind him. California Gov Gavin Newsom, who after the Dobbs decision leaked asked “where the hell is my party,” has become one of his most stalwart defenders. Similarly, Rep Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), the self-described Democratic socialist who endorsed Sen Bernie Sanders in 2020, said she will support Mr Biden for the 2024 Democratic nomination. Indeed, Mr Sanders has also backed Mr Biden.

Democratic leaders, including those who dealt with Mr Trump personally, likely have done so because they recognise the threat that Mr Trump could pose were he to return to office. But much like how the “grass-tops” didn’t want to nominate Mr Biden, many of those same ones who are saying Mr Biden’s re-election is necessary may not resonate with the “grassroots” who still feel dissatisfaction.