The GOP primary is already decided. We’re just pretending it isn’t

The Republican presidential nominating contest does not officially start until January when the New Hampshire primary and Iowa caucuses begin. But in reality, the nominee is often decided long before voters officially cast their ballots.

Despite the headlines surrounding Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, Joe Biden consistently led national polls except for a few brief moments when Mr Sanders notched victories in New Hampshire and Nevada. For all the focus on Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz in the 2016 GOP primary, polls rightly predicted Donald Trump would become the nominee, while Mr Sanders’s insurgent run only delayed the inevitable of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 nomination.

Similarly, few can deny that Mr Trump dominates the Republican Party far more now than when he staged his GOP takeover in 2016. Despite not currently holding office, he is essentially running as an incumbent – especially given the fact that a large chunk of the Republican electorate believes the “Deep State,” “RINO Republicans” and Democrats stole the 2020 election from him. The continued indictments and investigations have not blunted support for him, but have rather galvanised Republicans behind him.

Monday’s New York Times and Siena College poll provided further evidence that the Republican presidential primary is all but decided. The survey showed that despite conservatives wanting a horse race between Mr Trump and Florida Gov Ron DeSantis, 54 per cent of likely Republican voters support the former president compared to 17 per cent who say they support Mr DeSantis.

In addition, while much has been made of Mr DeSantis’s supposed strength with college-educated voters, 40 per cent of likely Republican voters who have at least a bachelor’s degree support Mr Trump, with only 23 per cent supporting Mr DeSantis.

Similarly, as much as Republican donors are trying to make Senator Tim Scott (R-SC) happen, he clocks in third place among voters with a college degree, but only commands a pittance of four per cent of voters with a degree and only three per cent overall. The same goes for Nikki Haley, Vivek Ramaswamy, Chris Christie, Francis Suarez and so many other also-ran Republican presidential candidates; at a certain point, the press, the Republican electorate and major Republican donors no longer need to view these people not as legitimate presidential candidates, but rather attention-seekers.

Mr Trump also holds a majority with nearly every age demographic. In the demographic where he does not – voters between the age of 30 and 44 years – he still leads with 41 per cent.

Furthermore, as much as Republicans like former congressman Will Hurd (who is running as an anti-Trump candidate despite not voting to impeach him when he was in office) warn that Mr Trump will lose to President Joe Biden, 40 per cent of voters say that “able to beat Joe Biden” describes Mr Trump much better, and 18 per cent say it describes the former president “somewhat better.”

These numbers are nearly insurmountable. Almost all of the other candidates lack the name recognition needed to overtake Mr DeSantis (save for former vice president Mike Pence, whom many Republicans consider to be a traitor). Mr Trump’s nomination at this point is all but inevitable, with the real contest slated to become ‘who will win the silver medal’ – giving them the potential to become Mr Trump’s running-mate, but far but guarantees it.

Of course, nothing is a foregone conclusion. But barring Mr Trump either passing away before Iowa – he’s said he would run even from prison – it is hard to envision anyone beating him at this point. If any of his challengers hit him too hard, they face accusations of committing Republican heresy, but letting him skate by would inevitably kill their chances.

At this point, it is ludicrous to admit anything other than the fact that Mr Trump will be the presumptive frontrunner and begin preparing to view the upcoming primaries through that lens.