Will growing conflict in the Middle East affect flights?

Q I am watching the growing tension in the Middle East with concern. What do you think the impact will be on flights to and from Asia if Yemen’s ally, Iran, responds to the UK and US attacks on Yemen?

Alan J

A I must first mention the two tragedies in the past decade involving passenger aircraft flying over areas of tension. In 2014 all 298 passengers and crew aboard Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 died after a Russian-made missile was fired from rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine. At the time, dozens of planes flew over that area every day. In 2020, all 176 people aboard Ukraine International Airlines’ flight PS752 perished when Iran’s Revolutionary Guard shot the aircraft down shortly after take-off from Tehran, destination Kyiv. The plane was misidentified as an incoming missile.

Needless to say, the aviation industry is extremely cautious about flying over conflict zones. Ukraine was something of an aviation crossroads, with hundreds of flights crossing every day, but with Russia’s invasion ongoing, no civil aircraft can fly over the country.

Western airlines are giving Israel and some other Middle Eastern countries a wide berth. The typical flight path to London Heathrow for British Airways from Singapore and Qantas from Perth heads over Oman and the UAE, followed by Kuwait and the length of Iraq.

All American airlines are banned from flying over Iran, and other countries are cautious. Some aircraft, though, fly across Iran. For example, the Thai Airways plane from Bangkok to London Heathrow on Friday morning traversed the length of the country, from the far southeast to the Turkish border in the northwest.

Were Iranian airspace deemed too dangerous, planes could be routed north or south of this area. But going south over Iraq is already very busy. Going north, there is a relatively narrow 100-mile gap between northern Iran and southern Russia. This patch of Azerbaijan’s airspace could become crowded with planes flying between Europe and south and east Asia. I see British Airways’ flight from Mumbai to Heathrow on Friday morning, as well as the Virgin Atlantic departure from Delhi to London, chose this route.

Currently, we are nowhere near the situation in the first Gulf War when some Asia-UK flights were routed via Nairobi in Kenya. Airlines will cope with further airspace restrictions, but it would mean more delayed flights and missed connections. On the scale of world problems, that does not look too serious. But passenger confidence looks likely to take another knock.

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Q I want to benefit from price savings by advance booking train tickets from London Paddington to Cardiff return on some Sundays over this year. Can I be confident that the ticket won’t be wasted by strikes and engineering works causing cancellations? If I wait until we know about strikes and engineering schedules the ticket prices will have gone through the roof.

Nick T

A At the risk of being unduly optimistic: I was writing this yesterday evening and, so far, no announcement has been made of any industrial action by train drivers belonging to the Aslef union. The executive committee, who decide on strikes and overtime bans, have been meeting this week. The union and the employers have been locked in a dispute for the past 18 months, and the two sides appear as far apart as ever. So I have been fully expecting a strike and, so far, one has not been called (I had Thursday 25 and Saturday 27 January pencilled in; the first cannot happen because two weeks’ notice is needed, and the second looks unlikely.)

Industrial action seems inevitable at some stage, though. The 14 English train operators, including the one you use, Great Western, have offered only a modest increase contingent on substantial changes to working practices. Aslef wants a decent, no-strings rise followed by local negotiations on employment terms. The government will sign off (and pay for) the eventual settlement, and the union boss, Mick Whelan, says he does not believe a deal will be done until there is a change of government.

However, in your position I would happily buy advance tickets for Sunday trains between the England and Welsh capitals. There have been hardly any strikes on Sundays. And even when there is a walkout by drivers, Great Western has run a reliable hourly service, though sometimes a change at Bristol Temple Meads has been necessary.

Regarding engineering work: if advance tickets are on sale, you can be sure that Network Rail is not planning any disruption to the line. So book confidently, as early as you can for the cheapest tickets.

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Q A friend has booked one of the new direct London-Lima flights with Latam Airlines. It now appears that the direct flights are not operating at all. Any idea what has happened to them? She has been bounced to a connecting flight via Sao Paulo in Brazil. I presume if the airline transfers her to an indirect flight they have satisfied their obligations?

Leon D

A I was delighted to see the announcement by the large South American airline, Latam, that it would restore the direct link between London and the Peruvian capital, Lima. British Airways used to fly the route from Gatwick; Latam launched from Heathrow in December. Infuriatingly, it has now been suspended beyond 1 February. Latam says the Civil Aviation Authority (CAA) applied “an operational restriction”, which meant it couldn’t fly. This issue is over the registration of the aircraft used for the flight.

Latam operates six separate airlines, including Latam Chile, Latam Brasil and Latam Peru. The carrier apparently likes to shuffle its aircraft to maximise efficiency. But, the CAA does not accept so-called “interchange operations” – a process whereby an aircraft is "dynamically transferred" between different airlines. I understand the authority wrote this condition into the permit. When the service began, it appears to have been an interchange operation.

A CAA spokesperson told me: “While it is disappointing to see Latam has decided to suspend its operations, this is a choice of the company and not at the Civil Aviation Authority’s direction. The permit granted to Latam in October 2023 very clearly set out the basis upon which the company could undertake UK services. When we became aware that Latam Peru was not acting in accordance with those restrictions in relation to its Lima-London services, we worked with the company to quickly put in place measures to allow those flights to be maintained and ensure passengers were supported whilst bringing the company back within the scope of that approval.”

Unfortunately for your friend, the flights have not been maintained. Latam can offer a connection via Sao Paulo, but frankly it looks lousy: at least 1,700 more miles flying. Personally, I would check out how much Avianca of Colombia wants for its excellent London Heathrow-Bogota-Lima flights, which add only 100 miles to the total discount – and, if the fare looks good, cancel with Latam for a full refund and buy with Avianca.

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Q In all your years of travelling, what is the most luxurious journey you’ve ever had?

J Middleton

A I love all readers’ questions, but I particularly enjoyed this one because after much consideration the answer slightly took me by surprise.

First, I equate luxury with being able to sleep soundly overnight. I am excluding cruise ships, however luxurious they may be, because they are not what I would call proper public transport.

In the air, I have enjoyed some surprisingly comfortable journeys on the all-too-rare occasions when I could find four economy seats together; the best was on the top deck of a British Airways Airbus A380 SuperJumbo flying from Miami to London Heathrow: quiet, calm and comfortable all across the Atlantic. I am not experienced in premium cabins, in all their flat-bed glory. But as an aficionado of hostels, I often think that even the best first-class flight is surely no better than a dorm bed. And while Emirates has showers in first class, I believe that – like some hostels – they are time-limited.

Among overnight rail journeys, I find Russia far more comfortable than European sleepers. That may be, however, that after a day or two on the Trans-Siberian railway, you will frankly sleep anywhere. The UK options are comfortable enough, but not exactly luxurious; I should make clear that I have not yet travelled on the revamped Caledonian Sleeper, due to price and availability issues.

Which leaves ferries – and I have joint favourites, both of which I have experienced fairly recently. For my money, a truly comfortable overnight journey should be up to (approximately) Premier Inn standards, but with the added bonus of delivering you somewhere interesting as you slumber.

Hurtigruten, the Norwegian coastal ferry, is excellent – though perhaps some will heckle that it is more of a cruise experience for we British travellers. In which case, the outright winner is the Stena Line between Liverpool and Belfast, an outstanding way to travel so long as you are horizontal in a cabin rather than trying to sleep in a chair. Finally, I hear good things about Brittany Ferries and the longer North Sea journeys on DFDS and P&O Ferries, which I look forward to sampling.

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