Tiangong-1: Track out-of-control Chinese space station as it plunges down to Earth

We still don't know when the satellite is falling down. But it's likely to be Sunday, or thereabouts, say experts.

Just a reminder of the official advice, should the Chinese space station drop down in your back garden. First: that's very unlikely. But second: if it happens, don't touch it and call the authorities.

More on why you shouldn't poke it – and a lot more besides – can be found here.

The European Space Agency is updating its estimate every day or so now, as Tiangong-1 heads closer to the Earth. Its current estimate now runs from "the morning of 31 March to the early morning of 2 April" – but it notes it can't be sure about that.

The European Space Agency has refined its estimate of when Tiangong-1 will drop down: it's now 31 March to 1 April, rather than the day after. But they still don't know for sure: it could still drop down on 2 April, and the ESA notes that the prediction is "highly variable".

Here's a deeper piece about why we don't know where the space station is going to fall – and why that matters.

We might not know much about Tiangong-1. But we can see it, sort of.

These pictures have been put together by the Fraunhofer research institute, which is tracking Tiangong-1 using very complex radar and other technologies. That means they can sort of see the satellite as it falls – and gives a very impressive effect.

The crash might be a little later than expected, say experts. We could be waiting until Sunday night.

(It all just goes to show how difficult this is — knowing at all takes an impressive feat by a whole host of international organisations. They’ve stressed repeatedly that it’s all highly variable.)

We're now just hours away from the re-entry. It's expected to happen around 1am UK time – though it could be a couple of hours before or after. We won't know when it will happen with any precision until it does, because it's so hard to predict the satellite's path, so it could happen earlier or later than expected.

You can read more about that uncertainty here.

China – which has been remarkably quiet about the Tiangong-1 space station in general – has released a statement saying that it will drop down to Earth on Monday. But it didn't say what time, and that estimate fits with the one provided by the European Space Agency.

Here's the latest from the Associated Press:

China's defunct Tiangong 1 space station hurtled toward Earth on Sunday and was expected to re-enter the atmosphere within hours. 

Most of the craft should burn up on re-entry, so scientists said falling debris poses only a slight risk to people on the ground. 

The European Space Agency forecast that the station, whose name translates as "Heavenly Palace," will re-enter sometime between Sunday night and early Monday GMT. The Chinese space agency said it should happen during the course of Monday Beijing time. 

The Aerospace Corp. predicted Tiangong 1's re-entry would take place within 2 hours of either side of 0018 GMT Monday (8:18 p.m. Sunday EDT.) 

Based on the space station's orbit, it will come back to Earth somewhere 43 degrees north and 43 degrees south, a range covering most of the United States, China, Africa, southern Europe, Australia and South America. Out of range are Russia, Canada and northern Europe. 

Only about 10 percent of the bus-sized, 8.5-ton spacecraft will likely survive being burned up on re-entry, mainly its heavier components such as its engines. The chances of any one person being hit by debris are considered less than one in a trillion. 

Launched in 2011, Tiangong 1 was China's first space station, serving as an experimental platform for bigger projects, such as the Tiangong 2 launched in September 2016 and a future permanent Chinese space station. 

The station played host to two crewed missions and served as a test platform for perfecting docking procedures and other operations. Its last crew departed in 2013 and contact with it was cut in 2016. 

Since then, it has orbited gradually closer and closer to Earth on its own while being monitored. 

Many Western space experts think China has lost control of the station. China's chief space laboratory designer, Zhu Zongpeng, has denied Tiangong was out of control, but hasn't provided specifics on what, if anything, China was doing to guide the craft's return to Earth.