Satellite crash – live: Out-of-control ERS-2 falls to Earth

We’re approaching the window in which the ERS-2 satellite could reenter the Earth’s atmosphere, according to ESA’s latest calculations.

It’s an approximately 3.5 hour window, starting from around 2pm GMT, that we might see the defunct satellite drop from orbit.

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The window for ERS-2’s possible reentry is now open, meaning it could enter the Earth’s atmosphere anytime between now and 5.30pm GMT.

While we wait, you can watch a video shared by the European Space Agency’s Earth Observation centre in Italy. It shows the doomed satellite passing overhead in real-time.

We’re still waiting to hear from the European Space Agency on the fate of the ERS-2 satellite.

Whenever it deorbits, it may take days, or even weeks, to recover any fragments, presuming some fall on land. If they go into the ocean, there’s a chance they may be lost forever. Obviously, if it falls over anywhere populated, we’ll be hearing about it almost immediately.

Here’s a reminder of what the ESA expects to happen: “The vast majority of the satellite will burn up, and any pieces that survive will be spread out somewhat randomly over a ground track on average hundreds of kilometres long and a few tens of kilometres wide.”

According to the European Space Agency’s estimates, the ERS-2 satellite should be re entering the Earth’s atmosphere at 3.41pm GMT, which is right now.

We’re still waiting for official confirmation from the ESA.

The ERS-2 satellite has cleared Canada and the United States and is now over the Pacific Ocean, according to satellite tracking site Satflare.

This means it should pose no risk to human life if any fragments survive reentry. If it makes it over the Pacific, the next land will be the Antarctic, before crossing over the Southern Ocean and Indian Ocean and over east Africa.

The ESA has just posted to X (formerly Twitter) to tell us that the ERS-2 satellite still seems to be orbiting Earth.

“Nothing to report as of yet,” the space agency writes.

The ERS-2 satellite appears to have made it over the North Pacific Ocean and is now passing close to Point Nemo - the point on Earth that is furthest away from land.

This area is also known as Spacecraft Cemetary, as defunct satellites, spacecraft and even space stations have been ditched there in the past.

If ERS-2 were to come down now, ESA would not have been able to plan it better if they had control of it.

The ERS-2 is currently making its way over the South Pole. According to the European Space Agency’s previous forecast, it has no more than one hour left to go. It will more likely be a matter of minutes.

The ERS-2 satellite has once again cleared land, albeit the most sparsely populated continent on the planet.

Satflare shows it now heading north up the Southern Ocean , with its trajectory putting it on course for the east coast of Africa.

Mozambique will be the first country it crosses, followed by Zambia, Malawi, Tanzania, Burundi and Rwanda.

The European Space Agency has warned that any fragments could fall across a radius of tens of kilometres from that line.

It looks likely that the ERS-2 will be reentering the Earth’s atmosphere over land.

As it heads over Africa it will travel north until a brief crossing of the Mediterranean and over Europe.

This red line shows the path it will take: