Chinese rocket tracker - live: Falling spacecraft falls to Earth over Indian Ocean, reports say
If rocket debris landed over an inhabited area, it would be akin to a ‘small plane crash ... over 100 miles’.
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The Long March 5B rocket, which carried a Chinese space station module, has dropped into low Earth orbit and now risks crashing back down.
The rocket successfully launched the Tianhe module last week, which will become the living quarters of the future Chinese Space Station (CSS). Unfortunately, the 30-metre long rocket also reached orbit, and is now one of the largest ever launches to make an uncontrolled re-entry.
It is uncommon for rockets to reach the velocity necessary to reach orbit, but it is currently travelling around the world once every 90 minutes, or seven kilometres every second. It passes by just north of New York, Madrid, and Beijing, and as far south as Chile and New Zealand.
There are fears that the rocket could land on an inhabited area; the last time a Long March rocket was launched in May 2020, debris was reported falling on villages in the Ivory Coast. The speed of the rocket means scientists still do not yet know when it will fall, but it is likely to do so before 10 May 2021.
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Chinese authorities provide little information
Much is still unknown about the object, in large part because Chinese authorities have given little information on either the rocket or its journey.
It is expected to plunge back down to Earth in the coming days – but it is still too early to know where or when exactly.
Usually, discarded rocket stages are immediately guided into a controlled demolition by friction in Earth’s atmosphere, but the Chinese rocket section was not.
China’s space agency has yet to say whether the “core stage” of the huge Long March 5B rocket is being controlled or will make an out-of-control descent. Last May, another Chinese rocket fell uncontrolled into the Atlantic Ocean off West Africa.
Why won’t China comment?
“Basic details about the rocket stage and its trajectory are unknown because the Chinese government has yet to comment publicly on the reentry. Phone calls to the China National Space Administration weren’t answered on Wednesday, a holiday.
“However, the newspaper Global Times published by the Chinese Communist Party, said the stage’s “thin-skinned” aluminum-alloy exterior will easily burn up in the atmosphere, posing an extremely remote risk to people.”
“Space junk ... is the responsibility of every spacefaring country”
“Space junk is no one country’s responsibility, but the responsibility of every spacefaring country,” Nasa’s website states.
“The problem of managing space debris is both an international challenge and an opportunity to preserve the space environment for future space exploration missions… The space around out planet is filled with rubbish. It’s time to take out the trash.”
What are the rules for space debris?
The 1972 Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects states that the manufacturing agency is accountable for whatever damage is caused by their wreckage.
However there is no legislation to actually prevent space debris from falling over populated areas.
Former Nasa administrator Jim Bridenstine called for action to be taken, tweeting: “In the last two weeks, there have been three high concern potential conjunctions. Debris is getting worse!”
How fast is Long March 5B going -
On Tuesday, the 21-tonne Long March 5B rocket was travelling at approximately 28,000 kilometres per hour, or 7 kilometres per second.
However, the speed of the craft may not be the most important factor. “I don’t think the vehicle’s speed has a bearing on the predictability of controlled re-entries. Generally, any slight early deviations from track can be corrected by the time it nears the ground”, said Dr Paul A Daniels, Vice President of the Royal Astronomical Society and President of the Federation of Astronomical Societies.
“Predictability is only a serious problem if the re-entering vehicle is uncontrolled. Once re-entry starts the atmospheric drag builds up quite quickly and an uncontrolled vehicle may be (or start) tumbling and that affects the predictability too.
“In addition, high solar activity can increase the altitude of the outer layers of the thin upper atmosphere. This effect is reasonably well understood but harder to quantify so it impacts the precision of when the re-entry starts and, hence, the landfall location (if anything survives to the ground).”
Rocket’s ‘exact entry point ... cannot be pinpointed’, Pentagon says.
“U.S. Space Command is aware of and tracking the location of the Chinese Long March 5B in space, but its exact entry point into the Earth’s atmosphere cannot be pinpointed until within hours of its reentry, which is expected around May 8,” Mike Howard, a Pentagon spokesman, said in a statement on Tuesday.
When and where will Long March 5B fall?
“The rocket’s speed makes it hard to predict where it will fall, but space agencies have some notion of its parameters.”
US Space Force starts tracking plummeting satellite
This morning, the Long March 5B rocket is orbiting the planet at an altitude of 200 kilometres.
The US Department of Defense has said that it will be tracking the rocket, but its exact entry point will not be pinpointed until within hours of its expected reentry on 8 May.
The US Space Force (18SPAC) has said they will publish updates about the descent of the rocket on the Space Track website, starting 4 May.
At time of writing, the website does not work; a link to the Space Force’s updates on the website redirects to the login page. It is unclear whether any updates have been posted.
Why is China building a space station?
The Long March 5B rocket was transporting the the 22-metric-ton core module of China’s Tianhe, or “Heavenly Harmony” space station.
The 17-metre long module – expected to serve as the living quarters of the Chinese Space Station (CSS) for up to three astronauts, and will contain the station’s control centre, power, propulsion and life-support systems.
The CSS, which would be about one-sixth the size of the International Space Station (ISS), is also slated to be joined in orbit by Xuntian optical module, a Hubble-class space telescope.
In 11 missions planned over the next two years or so, China plans to piece together its space station with two more launches planned in mid-late May and June that will help build the 66-ton three-module orbital outpost.
China has been planning to build its own permanent space station since the 1990s since it has not been part of the International Space Station (ISS) and the US has often objected to the secrecy and close military ties of its space missions.
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