Iowa entrance polls show MAGA fans turned out for caucus: Live updates

Democrats are on a lookout to woo Texas voters and are watching the state closely on Super Tuesday, as they patiently wait for voters to nominate their chosen rival for Republican senator Ted Cruz.

Among the potential candidates, US Republican Colin Allred, a former NFL player and three-term congressman from Dallas, and state senator Roland Gutierrez have drawn most of the attention in a primary that again finds Texas Democrats in pursuit of a breakthrough candidate.

In the past 30 years, no Democrat has won a statewide office in Texas – marking the longest losing streak of its kind in the US.

Despite that, Democrats believe Texas and Florida are their best shot for upsets in November as they try to preserve a slim 51-49 advantage in the Senate. That majority includes West Virginia senator Joe Manchin, who is not seeking reelection and whose seat is likely to flip Republican.

Seven other Democrats are also running in the Senate primary in Texas, including state Republican Carl Sherman. The race heads to a May 28 runoff if no candidate wins a vote majority.

“Things are shifting in the state. It takes a long time,” said Jared Hockeman, the chairperson of the Democratic Party in Cameron County along the US-Mexico border. “We recognise that.”

Super Tuesday, the biggest day of the US presidential primary season, is here today and promises to have a decisive – if perhaps somewhat anticlimactic – impact on the respective Republican and Democratic races.

All eyes will be on the Republican contest between Nikki Haley and Donald Trump after the former breathes life into the campaign with a DC win but will come head on today with the former US president. The well-funded but under-performing ex-UN ambassador picked up a much-needed win in Washington DC’s primary on Sunday, her first of the season, beating Mr Trump by 62.3 per cent of the vote to his 33.3 per cent, scooping up 19 delegates in the process.

The Democratic contest is appearing one-sided with president Joe Biden seemingly nailed-on to be his party’s candidate again as he seeks a second term in the White House, despite concerns about his advanced age and consistently poor polling.

Here’s everything you need to know about the great American political slugfest:

As it stands, Donald Trump looks all but certain to be the Republican Party’s presidential nominee once again in 2024, having already chalked up big wins in Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, the US Virgin Islands, South Carolina, Michigan, Idaho and Missouri primaries and had any doubts about his place on ballot papers dispelled by the US Supreme Court, which ruled on Monday that states have no authority to disqualify candidates.

All but one of Mr Trump’s challengers have long since fallen away, with only the well-funded but under-performing ex-UN ambassador Nikki Haley still swinging.

Joe Sommerlad explains the top races:

Donald Trump won the North Dakota Republican caucus on Monday night, taking all 29 of the state’s delegates after receiving more than 84 per cent of the vote.

The former president appeared on the ballot alongside former UN ambassador Nikki Haley, pastor Ryan Binkley who suspended his campaign and little-known businessman David Stuckenberg.

Read the full story here:

Alex Woodward writes:

The US Supreme Court’s reversal of a landmark court decision in Colorado will keep Donald Trump on the state’s presidential election ballots and on the ballots in a handful of other states where he was also disqualified from the presidency under a constitutional clause barring insurrectionists from office.

It was a unanimous 9-0 decision from the justices, on its face. They agreed that individual states can’t unilaterally remove candidates for federal office from their ballots. But that’s about as far as they got to being on the same page.

Instead, what emerged was a 5-4 conservative majority decision that went far beyond that of the liberal minority, stating that only Congress can decide whether insurrectionists are disqualified from federal office.

What this means is that any candidate who tries to overthrow the government can still get elected to the presidency – just so long as they have the support of the controlling political party in Congress.

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Andrew Feinberg writes:

The president’s speech will coincide with a significant push for media exposure by Mr Biden’s team, which is looking to harness the national attention given to the annual speech by placing him, Ms Harris and top aides on local media, as well as in other channels where they believe voters can be provided with relevant information on the administration’s record.

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One of the seven Republican senators who voted to convict Donald Trump for inciting a riot at the US Capitol on January 6 endorsed Nikki Haley’s bid for president.

Lisa Murkowski, the senior senator from Alaska, announced her support for the former governor of South Carolina and US ambassador to the United Nations.

“America needs someone with the right values, vigor, and judgment to serve as our next President—and in this race, there is no one better than her,” Ms Murkowski said in a statement. “Nikki will be a strong leader and uphold the ideals of the Republican Party while serving as a President for all Americans.”

Alabama

The Yellowhammer State’s electoral map was redrawn in October after a panel of federal judges rejected a Republican proposal in favour of their own, maintaining the state’s one existing majority-Black district and effectively creating another, which the Democrats ultimately hope to be able to flip.

The redistricting places Republicans Jerry Carl and Barry Moore up against each other in Alabama’s new 1st Congressional District, with Democrat Tom Holmes providing the opposition challenge.

Mr Moore, who formerly held the state’s 2nd Congressional District and has the support of Marjorie Taylor Greene, in turn leaves behind a seat that will be fought over by 11 candidates, with a 16 April runoff considered the most likely outcome to find an outright winner.

Arkansas

The race for the state’s 3rd Congressional District will be fought between long-serving Republican representative Steve Womack, seeking an eighth term, and state senator Clint Penzo, who has said he was motivated to challenge Mr Womack because of his opposition to Jim Jordan’s candidacy for the speakership of the House of Representatives after Kevin McCarthy’s ousting last autumn.

California

The Golden State’s “top-two” approach to primaries, which lists all the candidates together on ballot papers regardless of party affiliation, promises to keep things as interesting at House level as the Feinstein Senate race promises to be.

The decision by Mr Schiff and Ms Porter to contest the latter means their old 30th and 47th Congressional Districts are open to a successor, with Republicans like Scott Baugh believing they might have a chance at stealing Porter’s former base.

Other key congressional districts that look competitive in California include the 9th, 13th, 16th, 20th, 22nd, 27th, 32nd, 27th, 40th, 41st, 45th and 49th.

The 16th takes in deep blue Silicon Valley while the 20th is in need of a successor to the aforementioned Mr McCarthy, underlining the complexity of California as an electoral proposition.

North Carolina

Like Arkansas, the Tar Heel State has redrawn its congressional map in a move that stands to benefit Republicans hopeful of flipping House seats.

North Carolina’s 14 seats are currently divided evenly but the new map ultimately threatens to leave conservatives with at least 10.

Races in the 6th and 14th Congressional Districts are being fought because Democratic incumbents Kathy Manning and Jeff Jackson are stepping down in opposition to the redistricting.

The 1st District race between Democratic incumbent Don David and challengers Tom Bailey (libertarian), Laurie Buckhout and Sandy Smith (both Republican) promises to be tight, as does the 8th, being fought over by six GOP candidates including pastor Mark Harris after incumbent Dan Bishop left to campaign for state attorney general.

Texas

The Lone Star State has a number of key races to watch, notably Democrat Lizzie Fletcher being challenged by Pervez Agwan in the 7th Congressional District, Sheila Jackson Lee being challenged by ex-Houston City councilwoman Amanda Edwards in the 18th and Republican Tony Gonzales facing a host of would-be GOP usurpers in the 23rd, his opposition including former ICE agent Victor Avila and social media influencer Brandon Herrera.

Republicans Kay Granger and Michael Burgess are retiring, leaving the 12th and 26th open respectively, while Mr Allred’s challenge for the Senate leaves the 32nd in search of a replacement.

Both parties are choosing their nominees in the race to succeed the state’s term-limited Democratic governor Roy Cooper and the result is likely to be a matchup between Democratic attorney general Josh Stein and Republican lieutenant-governor Mark Robinson.

Mr Trump carried the battleground state in 2020 but President Biden is hoping to flip it in November so the outcome here will go a long way towards indicating how feasible that goal might be.

The favourite among Democrats hoping for the chance to ultimately challenge Republican incumbent Ted Cruz is former NFL star turned congressman Colin Allred.

State senator Roland Gutierrez appears best placed to challenge him but has not been able to match his rival’s fundraising.