‘It’s over!’ Progressives fear Trump’s assassination attempt will win him the presidency

Hasan Piker, a popular progressive streamer with millions of followers, was broadcasting live on Twitch on Saturday when his viewers alerted him to the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.

As he repeatedly watched clips of the former president being led away by Secret Service agents, he declared the election was as good as done.

“He’s still throwing up fists as they’re putting him in the f****ing car bro,” he said through a grimace. “Stop! Every fist is another 10,000 in a f***ing red state.”

“It’s over!” he said of the upcoming election.

In the immediate aftermath of the shooting, many progressives experienced the same feeling.

Looking beyond the horror of the day, many were quick to recognize that the images of a bloodied Trump, surrounded by Secret Service agents, pumping his fist in the air as he shouted “fight, fight, fight” to the crowd, would be a potent political asset — maybe even a game-changer.

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Deep Singh Badhesha, an attorney and political activist based in Denver, shared that now famous image of Trump on X with an urgent warning: “Landslide.”

“I think if Joe Biden wasn’t the other candidate it would bolster Trump a bit, but that would eventually fade over time,” he told The Independent.

“But it’s the juxtaposition against Joe Biden, who comes across to the average American voter — someone who’s not plugged in — as feeble. He doesn’t look all there. Doesn’t look mentally strong. And people get really worried about that,” he said.

In contrast, the pumping fist Trump projects strength, even if forced. “We know he has terrible policies, but that’s not what’s going to come across to most low-information voters,” Badhesha added.

One veteran Democratic consultant, who spoke on the condition of anonymity to NBC News the day after the shooting, was more succinct: “The presidential contest ended last night.”

It’s possible that progressives were taking their cues from the reaction of conservatives and Republicans to the near-fatal shooting. Perhaps predictably, they were quick to characterize it as an unprecedented boost to Trump’s campaign.

The next day, at the Republican National Convention, photos of Trump raising his fist were already printed on t-shirts. Conservatives were lining up to glorify the former president’s actions.

“Trump won when that happened because he displayed physical courage,” said right-wing broadcaster Tucker Carlson in an interview at the convention. “The guy got shot in the face, he stood up with blood streaming down the side of his head, blood on his hands, and said ‘fight!’”

But realistically, the Biden campaign was in major trouble even before the shooting. Democrats were split over Biden’s full-throated support of Israel’s war in Gaza. Following a disastrous debate performance against Trump last month, Biden has been slipping in the polls, and members of his own party have been publicly calling on him to step aside.

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Aaron Regunberg, a former Democratic state representative from Rhode Island, is part of a grassroots movement called “Pass the Torch,” a hastily formed group that is campaigning for Biden to step down from the Democratic ticket.

“We already know that they were planning to have a message that Trump is strong and tough, and he can, he can fight for you — which is bullshit because he doesn’t fight for us, he fights for his billionaire buddies and big oil and Big Pharma,” he told The Independent. “But it’s certainly a powerful image that underlines that.”

“I think it makes it even more important that Democrats have a candidate at the top of the ticket who can demonstrate their strength and energy and vigorousness and can deliver and articulate the message about why Trump is wrong for this country,” he added.

Fuelling those concerns, there were reports in the days after the shooting that those Democratic lawmakers who were calling on Biden to step aside were backing off "because of this fragile political moment," according to Robert Costa of CBS News.

For progressives who would suffer the most under a second Trump administration, the events of the weekend only heightened their fears.

Stacy Cay, a trans comedian from the south, said she felt “horror” watching the scenes unfold on her phone while she was at a wedding reception.  When the dust had settled and she knew that the former president had not been seriously injured, she feared what would come next.

“I’m terrified of who he’s going to blame and what he’s going to be encouraging his supporters to do. He’s no stranger to advocating for violence,” said Cay, who is from Arkansas but now lives in Kansas.

“Being a trans woman, and living in a red state, political violence terrifies me,” she added.

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While she wasn’t sure if it would help him in the November election, Cay said a victory for Trump would be “the end of the world” for trans people.

“In red states, federal protections are all trans people have, and Trump promises to remove all of them,” she said, noting that she fears Trump appointing judges and directing federal agencies will ensure access to gender-confirming healthcare will be banned.

Regunberg is also not sure the shooting will decide the election — but believes it should spur Democrats into action.

“Honestly, America is so polarized right now that almost nothing can cut through and be that definitive,” he said.

He added: “I think it underlines even more why we need a change on our side. And it ups the stakes of what was already an existential election.”