‘He just won’: Republicans, pollsters and betting sites suggest assassination attempt will see Trump win

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Louise Thomas

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Donald Trump’s chances of being elected president for a second time increased after the attempt on his life at a rally in Pennsylvania, according to an array of Republicans, pollsters and betting markets.

Images of the former president with a bloodied face, and pumping his fist in the air following the shooting on Saturday, prompted an outpouring of support from across the political spectrum. But conservative figures and GOP lawmakers pointed out the potential political impact of the shocking event.

“President Trump survives this attack — he just won the election,” Wisconsin Republican congressman, Derrick Van Orden, told Politico shortly after the shooting.

“This will energize the base more than anything,” Tim Burchett, Republican representative from Tennessee, also told Politico. “With his fist in the air and he didn’t want to leave. And he’s yelling, fight, fight, fight. That’ll be the slogan,” he added.

Those sentiments were echoed by Frank Luntz, a veteran Republican pollster, who suggested the shooting in Pennsylvania “will definitely impact the final vote, guaranteeing that every Trump voter will actually vote.”

“That participation gap is worth at least 1% and as much as 2%.  And because it happened in Pennsylvania, the impact will be highest in Pennsylvania.

“This doesn’t guarantee that Trump flips Pennsylvania.  But the long and winding road for Joe Biden just became even longer and windier,” he wrote on X.

Investors and betting markets also appeared to move toward Trump. “The election is likely to be a landslide. This probably reduces uncertainty," Nick Ferres, chief investment officer at Vantage Point Asset Management, told Reuters.

Ferres noted a surge of some 20 points in the polls for Ronald Reagan after a 1981 assassination attempt. He went on to win the 1984 election in a landslide.

Betting markets spiked in favor of Trump overnight, rising 7.5 points, according to an election betting aggregator.

In the hours after the shooting, and seemingly motivated by it, a number of high-profile figures announced their unequivocal support for Trump’s re-election.

Elon Musk, CEO of Tesla and SpaceX, shared a video of Trump pumping his fist after the attack with the caption: “I fully endorse President Trump and hope for his rapid recovery.”

Bill Ackman, a billionaire venture capitalist, also announced that he is going to “formally endorse” Trump in the hours after the shooting, while not mentioning the incident in the post.

Trump had just begun a campaign speech in Butler, Pennsylvania when shots rang out and a bullet struck his ear.

The 78-year-old was rushed off stage by members of the Secret Service, as he pumped his fists in the air shouting “fight, fight, fight” and blood ran down his face.

Secret Service agents killed the suspected shooter who was outside the security perimeter when the shots were fired, according to law enforcement officials. A spectator was killed, and two others have been critically injured.

The FBI has identified the gunman as 20-year-old Thomas Matthew Crooks, from Pennsylvania.

President Joe Biden spoke briefly from a police station in Delaware following the attack.

“Look, there’s no place in America for this kind of violence. It’s sick. It’s sick. It’s one of the reasons why we have to unite this country. We cannot allow for this to be happening,” the president said. The president reported that he had called Trump following the attack.

His campaign, meanwhile, is reportedly “hitting the pause button,” according to ABC News, pulling ads off the airwaves and stopping political communications.

The Republican National Convention, at which Trump will formally receive the nomination of his party as the 2024 presidential candidate, begins in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, on Monday.