2020 election polls: Biden smashes ad spend record as GOP pollster says ‘impossible’ for Trump to be re-elected after debate
Follow the latest updates
Your support helps us to tell the story
From reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it's investigating the financials of Elon Musk's pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, 'The A Word', which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.
At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.
The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.
Your support makes all the difference.Joe Biden came away from the second and last presidential debate with a dominant lead in snap polling, which showed him with a double-digit advantage over Donald Trump.
Despite the Republican president’s more reserved approach to Thursday night’s clash in Nashville - which was far less chaotic and acrimonious than their previous encounter in Cleveland on 29 September - Mr Trump still came under attack on issues such as the coronavirus, race and climate change.
Veteran GOP pollster Frank Luntz said that Trump may have won the battle of the last debate, but Biden has won the war. He says it's "impossible" for the president turning around voter sentiment this late in the election cycle.
Trump is also up against a campaign that has broken all records for its spend on television and digital advertising in a presidential election, with still more than a week to go before polls close
Despite promising to dig into his own war chest to make up the campaign funding shortfall, Trump is yet to donate his own cash to the last stage of the campaign.
Please allow a moment for our liveblog to load.
Trump says polls Fox News polls ‘totally FAKE’
Donald Trump has claimed to be “leading in all of the states mentioned" in the latest Fox News poll, which shows him trailing Joe Biden in three states he won four years ago.
According to the poll, Biden was 12 points ahead in Michigan (52-40 per cent), five points ahead in Pennsylvania (50-45 per cent) and 5 points ahead in Wisconsin (49-44 per cent).
Trump, meanwhile, has a slim three point lead in Ohio (45-48 per cent), which he won by eight percentage points in 2016.
The poll, like many others at this stage, point to tight races in a swathe of states that are expected to deliver either candidate the presidency after 3 November.
If the president is right about one thing, it’s that we’ll all “soon see” the results.
White voters swept Trump to power in 2016 - now they’re the reason he’s going to lose
It’s fair to say that no presidential candidate has gone in more for the white voter than Donald Trump.
His candidacy was born out the birther movement against President Obama’s citizenship.
He’s downplayed America’s history of slavery, threatened 10 years in prison for vandalising Confederate monuments, attacked America’s Black Lives Matter movement and even refused to quickly disavow white supremacists.
But here’s the irony: His biggest problem in his quest for reelection, if the best of the recent polls are to be believed, is a historic collapse in winning the support of the white voter.
Michael Salfino has more.
2020 election polls: White voters swept Trump to power in 2016. Now they’re the reason he’s going to lose.
His biggest problem in his quest for reelection, if the best of the recent polls are to be believed, is a historic collapse in winning the support of the white voter
Morning Consult poll gives Biden big leads in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Minnesota and narrow victory in Texas
Those are all states won by Trump four years ago.
Meanwhile, CNN sees Biden winning Florida.
A new Reuters/Ipsos poll shows tightening races for the Senate
Democratic candidate Mark Kelly leads Republican incumbent Martha McSally in Arizona, 51 to 44 per cent. In their previous poll, Mr Kelly had a lead of 11 points. It was conducted between 14 to 21 October.
In Michigan, Democratic incumbent Gary Peters leads Republican challenger John James, 50 to 45 per cent. Mr Peters led Mr James by eight points in the same poll a week before. It was conducted between 14 to 20 October.
In North Carolina, Democratic challenger Cal Cunningham is tied with Republican incumbent Thom Tillis. The poll a week before showed Tillis in a four point lead. It was conducted between 14 to 20 October.
A new poll from The New York Times in Kansas shows a seven point lead for President Trump in the state
The New York Times/Siena College Poll shows President Trump leading Democratic challenger Joe Biden by 48 to 41 per cent in Kansas.
The poll also shows Republican Roger Marshall leading Democrat Barbara Bollier by 46 to 42 per cent in the state’s Senate race.
Mr Trump won Kansas by more than 20 points in 2016.
President Trump and Joe Biden are tied in Texas, in latest Quinnipiac University poll
The new poll shows the former vice president and Mr Trump tied at 47 per cent each, with under two weeks to go until 3 November’s election.
President Trump won Texas by nine points in 2016 when he faced Hillary Clinton.
The poll also shows that in the state’s Senate race, the Republican incumbent, John Cornyn holds a six point lead over Democratic challenger MJ Hegar.
Last moth Ms Hegar trailed Mr Cornyn by eight points in the same poll.
Half of all Americans want President Trump investigated after he leaves office, a new poll from The Independent finds
Forty-nine per cent of respondents to a new JL Partners-Independent poll said they believe Mr Trump should be criminally investigated once he leaves office for crimes he might have committed while in office.
While, nearly half of voters have concerns about the $400m in debts a recent report, citing tax documents, alleges the president owes, according to the poll.
John T Bennett has more here.
Half of Americans want Trump criminally investigated after presidency, poll finds
Forty-nine percent of respondents said they believe Mr Trump should be criminally investigated once he leaves office for crimes he might have committed while in office, according to a JL Partners-Independent poll
Joe Biden has a lead of 10 points over Donald Trump in new Quinnipiac poll
The new poll released by Quinnipiac University on Thursday shows that the Democratic nominee is leading President Trump by 51 to 41 per cent nationally.
Mr Biden’s lead is similar to two Quinnipiac polls from September, which showed the former vice president leading by 52 to 42 per cent over Mr Trump.
The figure is similar to other surveys, as the website FiveThirtyEight, which collates average polls nationally, shows Mr Biden leading the president nationally by 9.8 points as of 21 October.
Lindsey Graham accused of dodging debate as polls show challenger Jaime Harrison closing in
Senator Lindsey Graham skipped a debate and insisted he would not return to his home state of South Carolina until Supreme Court nominee Judge Amy Coney Barrett was confirmed by the senate, as polls showed him facing an increasingly tough re-election bid.
The senator did not attend the debate previously scheduled for Wednesday against his Democratic challenger Jaime Harrison, stating at a rally earlier in the week that he was “headed back to Washington” and adding: “I’m not coming back until Amy Coney Barrett is a Supreme Court Justice.”
Recent polls have shown Mr Harrison, associate chairman of the Democratic National Committee and a former chair of the state’s Democratic Party, rising in his bid to unseat the Republican incumbent
Chris Riotta has more here.
Lindsey Graham accused of dodging debate as polls show challenger Jaime Harrison closing in
‘I’m not coming back until Amy Coney Barrett is a Supreme Court Justice,' senator says
Trump has a young voter problem
"Put another way, Trump's path to re-election depends heavily on younger adults staying home," says Axios of its latest SurveyMonkey-Tableau data.
Of the 640,328 likely voters surveyed nationally from June through late October, Biden led Trump with younger voters between 18 to 28 per cent in key battleground states of Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Biden was even ahead in Texas, Georgia and South Carolina, while Trump only led with under 35-year-olds in Wyoming, South Dakota, Arkansas, Idaho and West Virginia.
Join our commenting forum
Join thought-provoking conversations, follow other Independent readers and see their replies
Comments