2020 polls: Biden leads Trump in battleground states Michigan and Wisconsin

Joe Biden continues to outpace Donald Trump in two crucial Midwest battlegrounds, currently holding a slight lead over the president in Michigan while showing a much more substantial advantage in Wisconsin, according to a pair of Washington Post-ABC News polls.

The surveys show Mr Biden narrowly ahead of Mr Trump among likely voters in Michigan by 51 per cent to 44 per cent, with Libertarian Party nominee Jo Jorgensen at 3 per cent. In Wisconsin, likely voters favour Mr Biden by 57 per cent to 40 per cent, with Ms Jorgensen at 2 per cent. Among registered voters, Mr Biden's edge in Michigan is five points, while he leads by 17 points in Wisconsin.

Mr Biden's margins in both states are driven by overwhelming support among female likely voters. He leads Mr Trump by 24 points among those women in Michigan and by 30 points in Wisconsin. Mr Biden trails Mr Trump among Michigan men by double digits, and the two are running about even among men in Wisconsin.

The findings suggest concerns about the coronavirus are weighing heavily on Mr Trump's candidacy, particularly in Wisconsin, which has seen case counts climb to record levels in recent weeks. When it comes to handling the pandemic, Mr Biden is trusted more than Mr Trump by double digits in both states, and large majorities support their state's rules on masks and restrictions on businesses and public gatherings.

In the contested Michigan Senate race, Democratic senator Gary Peters has a small edge over Republican challenger John James, by 52 per cent to 46 per cent among likely voters and by 49 per cent to 45 per cent among registered voters.

Along with Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan are among a trio of states seen as vitally important to both the president and the former vice president in their efforts to assemble the 270 electoral votes needed for victory. Mr Trump carried all three in 2016, shocking Democrats who had long enjoyed victories there, but by less than one percentage point each and a collective margin of fewer than 78,000 votes. Mr Biden has held a steady lead in the polls in all three since summer.

The Wisconsin findings are significantly more bullish for Mr Biden than some other public polls, which generally show him ahead by single digits, although two October surveys gave the former vice president a lead in the low double-digits. A month ago, a Post-ABC poll showed Mr Biden with a lead of six points among likely voters in the state.

While the Wisconsin poll indicates Mr Biden has gained ground in the state, some of the shift may be due to variation in random sample surveys. Slightly more registered voters in the current poll report having voted for Hillary Clinton than Mr Trump in 2016, whereas the previous survey showed voters essentially split. If the survey is adjusted to match the 2016 election result, Mr Biden maintains a 12-point lead.

With early voting underway in both states, interest in the election is extremely high. Nearly 7 in 10 voters in Wisconsin and more than 6 in 10 in Michigan say they are following the campaign very closely. In both states, more than 9 in 10 say they are either certain to vote or already have voted. The polls find that almost 4 in 10 likely voters in each state say they have already cast their ballots.

Majorities in both states now say they plan to vote before Election Day. In Wisconsin, that marks a shift from a month ago, when a bare majority of likely voters (51 per cent) said they planned to vote on Election Day. That has dropped to 39 per cent, with 60 per cent saying they will vote early or already have done so, including 37 per cent who said they already voted.

The polls suggest Election Day turnout will be critical for Mr Trump to close the gap with Mr Biden. Mr Trump leads among likely voters who plan to vote on Election Day, with 65 per cent support in Michigan and 70 per cent in Wisconsin. Among voters who have already voted or plan to do so before Election Day, more than seven in 10 in both Michigan and Wisconsin support Mr Biden.

Trump voters continue to show more enthusiasm for their candidate, with seven in 10 Michigan supporters and over three in four Wisconsin backers saying they are very enthusiastic about voting for the president. For Mr Biden, 54 per cent of Michigan voters and 56 per cent of Wisconsin voters express a similar level of enthusiasm about their support of the former vice president.

Wisconsin is one of the nation's coronavirus hotspots, with cases surging there recently. The poll shows increased concerns among voters about the virus, with 70 per cent saying they are very or somewhat worried that they or a family member might catch the virus or has already contracted it. That is an increase of seven points in the past month. The share of Wisconsin voters who are “very worried” is up from 23 per cent in early September to 29 per cent in the latest survey.

As fears of the virus rise in Wisconsin, perceptions of Mr Trump's performance as president have sagged. His overall approval rating is now 41 per cent positive and 58 per cent negative. Approval of his handling of the coronavirus pandemic stands at 39 per cent positive and 59 per cent negative, compared with 44 per cent positive and 54 per cent negative in September. Strong disapproval has risen from 47 per cent to 54 per cent since September.

Wisconsin voters trust Mr Biden more than Mr Trump by 20 points to handle the outbreak, an increase from the narrow seven-point edge Mr Biden held on the issue in September. Among independents, trust in Mr Biden has increased by 17 points, from 42 per cent in September to 59 per cent in the latest poll.

On the economy, Mr Trump's Wisconsin approval rating is now roughly divided, with 47 per cent approving and 50 per cent disapproving. Last month, his economic rating was net positive by seven points. Since September, the president has also lost his narrow five-point edge over Mr Biden on who is better able to handle the economy, with 52 per cent of Wisconsin voters now saying they trust Mr Biden more on this issue, while 44 per cent say they trust Mr Trump more.

In Michigan, Mr Trump's economic approval is in positive territory, 52 per cent to 44 per cent, which contributes to his narrower deficit in the state. His overall job approval stands at 46 per cent positive and 52 per cent negative — his handling of the coronavirus is worse, at 42 per cent positive and 55 per cent negative. There are no comparable Post-ABC findings in Michigan from last month.

Both states are led by Democratic governors — Gretchen Whitmer in Michigan and Tony Evers in Wisconsin — and their restrictions aimed at containing the spread of the virus have turned into partisan battles.

In both states, nearly seven in 10 registered voters support their state's current restrictions on businesses and public gatherings and mask requirements, including majorities (56 per cent) who strongly support those rules. But there are significant partisan divisions. In Wisconsin, more than nine in 10 Democrats and about seven in 10 independents back the rules, while six in 10 Republicans oppose them. In Michigan, the divisions are similar, though not quite six in 10 Republicans are opposed.

Ms Whitmer and Mr Trump have sparred over the virus, with the president repeatedly disparaging the first-term governor and, at one point, tweeting “Liberate Michigan” in opposition to the restrictions she had imposed. Recently, she was the target of an alleged plot to kidnap her before the election. More than a dozen arrests have been made in the case.

A plurality (46 per cent) of registered voters in Michigan say Mr Trump is more to blame for the clashes between the two leaders, compared with 23 per cent who say Ms Whitmer is to blame — 27 per cent say the two bear equal responsibility. Wisconsin voters view the controversy between the president and Ms Whitmer similarly, although more have no opinion on the matter.

Between the presidential candidates, Mr Biden fares better than Mr Trump when compared on two attributes. In both states, he is seen as more “honest and trustworthy” than Mr Trump and as the candidate who better understands “the problems of people like you”. Mr Biden's margins on honesty and empathy in Wisconsin are significantly larger than in Michigan.

In Wisconsin, Mr Biden is also judged as the stronger leader by a margin of nine points. In Michigan, the two are judged about evenly on that measure.

One reason for Mr Biden's lead in Wisconsin is that he is doing a better job of holding his base there than is Mr Trump. He is supported by 98 per cent of Democrats, while Mr Trump is backed by 88 per cent of Republicans, with independents at 59 per cent to 35 per cent in Mr Biden's favour.

When those independents who lean to one party or the other are factored into findings, Mr Biden has the support of 97 per cent of Democrats and Democratic leaners, while Mr Trump receives 84 per cent of Republicans and Republican leaners.

Mr Trump is winning 89 per cent of Wisconsin voters who say they backed him in 2016, compared with Mr Biden's 98 per cent among those who say they voted for Ms Clinton. In addition, Mr Biden is winning likely voters who say they either did not support Ms Clinton or Mr Trump in 2016 or did not vote that year by about 2 to 1 (59 per cent to 28 per cent).

Mr Biden also appears to be cutting significantly into part of Mr Trump's base in Wisconsin. Among White women without college degrees who sided with Mr Trump in 2016, Mr Biden is leading by double digits. He trails by double digits among white men without college degrees. Meanwhile, Mr Biden holds even bigger leads than Ms Clinton enjoyed among white men and women with college degrees.

Nearly four in 10 white women without a college degree in Wisconsin say they are “very worried” that they or a family member will catch the coronavirus (38 per cent), compared with 13 per cent of white men without college degrees.

Overall, Mr Biden leads by massive margins among voters worried about infections or who have a family member who caught it — by 47 points among this group in Michigan (71 per cent to 24 per cent) and 50 per cent in Wisconsin (73 per cent to 23 per cent). Mr Trump leads by more than 60 points in both states among voters who are “not too worried” or “not at all worried” about coronavirus infections in their family.

In Michigan, Mr Trump is doing slightly better at holding his Republican base than in Wisconsin, with 92 per cent support, just a tick below Mr Biden's 94 per cent support among Democrats. Also, Mr Trump has 51 per cent support among white likely voters but Mr Biden has the support of 81 per cent of non-white voters. Mr Biden leads by 89 per cent to 6 per cent among black registered voters, just shy of Ms Clinton's 92 per cent support in 2016, according to network exit polls.

Mr Trump has an overwhelming lead among white men without college degrees in Michigan and roughly splits the vote with Mr Biden among white women without degrees and white men with degrees. Meanwhile, Mr Biden has an overwhelming lead among white women with college degrees.

In another demographic shift, majorities of older voters in both states are currently backing Mr Biden. He has a wide lead of 61 per cent to 37 per cent in Wisconsin and a slimmer lead of 55 per cent to 43 per cent in Michigan among voters age 65 and above. Four years ago, Mr Trump narrowly carried these older voters in Michigan and split about even with Ms Clinton in Wisconsin.

Both Post-ABC News polls were conducted between 20 and 25 October among random samples of adults, registered voters and likely voters in Michigan and Wisconsin. In Michigan, 74 per cent of respondents were reached on cellphones and in Wisconsin, 71 per cent were reached on cellphones, with the remainder reached on landlines. The error margin among the sample of 902 registered voters in Michigan and 906 registered voters in Wisconsin is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. Among the sample of 789 likely voters in Michigan and 809 likely voters in Wisconsin, it is four points.

The Washington Post