Inside Politics: Boris Johnson considers potential impact of Joe Biden presidency

No fun in the sun for Britain’s reality stars this year. VIPs taking part in I'm a Celebrity ... Get Me Out Of Here! have been spotted preparing for the 2020 series at a “haunted” castle in north Wales. No’s 10 reality star Boris Johnson must be tempted to get the hell out of here during parliament’s half-term recess. But instead the PM is haunted by the celebrity who just won’t quit: Marcus Rashford. Meanwhile, the spectre of Johnson’s past remarks about Barack Obama won’t leave him alone – with No 10 now seriously spooked about the reality of a Joe Biden presidency.

Inside the bubble

Our Whitehall editor Kate Devlin on what to look out for today:

With the Commons in recess until next week, all eyes will be on the extended Brexit talks between Downing Street negotiator David Frost and his EU counterpart Michel Barnier in London. Over in the Lords, Downing Street’s old Brexit nemesis Philip Hammond is to be draped in ermine and introduced as a peer. Meanwhile the government’s Internal Markets Bill reaches the committee stage in the Lords.

Daily briefing

WATCHING AMERICA: EU negotiator Michel Barnier will be extending his stay in our rain-soaked capital until Wednesday before Brexit talks switch to Brussels. Northern Ireland secretary Brandon Lewis said the extended run in London was a “very good sign” of progress. Are Joe Biden’s poll numbers having an impact? Sir Ivan Rogers, the UK’s former representative to Brussels, claimed some EU officials believe Johnson may hold off to see whether Biden wins before agreeing to a deal. Sir Ivan told The Observer that the PM could still be tempted to go for a no-deal crash-out if Donald Trump pulls off another shock victory – since it might boost the chances of a UK-US trade deal. Ex-chancellor George Osborne told CNN there was some “frantic repositioning” going on at No 10 as the implications of a Biden presidency sink in. The Democrat and his team are thought to dislike Johnson – they haven’t forgotten the PM’s ugly remarks about “part-Kenyan” Barack Obama’s “ancestral dislike” of the UK.

IN THE MOOD: Government ministers think Marcus Rashford is fantastic, inspiring, a revelatory figurehead for change – but they are still refusing to extend free school meal vouchers over the holidays. Praising the “phenomenal” efforts of the young footballer, Brandon Lewis insisted that money already given to councils was “the right way” to deal with child food poverty. But the issue is not going away. Around 900,000 people have now signed the Man United star’s petition, while Labour pledged to force another vote when MPs return – with Keir Starmer saying: “It’s not too late to do the right thing”. Some Tories seem to agree. Several Conservatives signalled a change of heart over the weekend and leading backbencher Sir Bernard Jenkin admitted the party had “misjudged the public mood”. According to The Times, the PM is looking at additional funding for the poorest families over the Christmas holiday, describing it as a “partial climbdown”. Will it be enough for Rashford?

MILITARY MAN: Time for Dido to wave the white flag? Sir Bernard Jenkin, the influential chair of the Commons liaison committee, wants Baroness Dido Harding ousted from her role in charge of test and trace – and suggested Britain’s armed forces could step in instead. Sir Bernard said a senior military commander would do a much better job of running the failing system. It comes as the government considers a plan to cut the 14-day quarantine period for contacts of those testing positive for Covid to 10 or seven days. Prof Sir Ian Diamond, a Sage member, said there was “work going on” to look reduce the time and boost compliance. There are also discussions reportedly under way on new ‘tier 4’ restrictions – shutting restaurants and non-essential shops – if the general picture hasn’t improved by mid-November. Don’t tell Tory MP Steve Baker. The ERG man is planning on setting up a Covid Research Group (The CRG!) to push alternatives to lockdown.

ETON MESS: Boris Johnson is in serious trouble if he can’t hang on to posh, cake-baking Tory members. The Great British Bake-Off host Prue Leith has cancelled her party membership over the PM’s stance on post-Brexit food standards. The TV presenter is angry that the government’s agricultural bill means imports won’t have to meet UK rules. “Everybody who cares about British high food standards should back our farmers.” One waggish Tory source said: “This means no more cakes for the local association.” Lawyers are still angry with Johnson too. More than 800 top legal professionals have signed an open letter accusing the PM and Priti Patel of undue “hostility” towards lawyers representing asylum seekers (following their comments about those pesky “lefties” and “do-gooders”). Downing Street is unrepentant. A No 10 spokesperson saying lawyers were “not immune from criticism”.

BLIND SPOT: Rishi Sunak is under pressure to reveal his financial dealings after it emerged that he placed his personal investments into a blind trust when he became chancellor. Blind trusts help people avoid conflicts of interest by handing over control. But they also prevent scrutiny. It’s the latter part that Lib Dem leader Ed Davey doesn’t like: “Sunak must own up to how blind this trust actually is … greater transparency in all their dealings is essential.” Speaking of transparency, NHS England has refuted The Sunday Times’ big investigation – which claimed thousands of elderly people were “denied” potentially life-saving treatment during the height of the pandemic. NHS England’s medical director Steve Powis said the story was “untrue.” Elsewhere, The Mail reports that NHS staff could get a Covid vaccine “in weeks” – and Boots is launching a new Covid test which delivers results in 12 minutes.

OUT OF CONTROL: Donald Trump’s chief of staff has claimed the US government is unable to do anything about the spread of the Covid. “We are not going to control the pandemic,” Mark Meadows told CNN. “We are going to control the fact that we get vaccines, therapeutics and other mitigation areas.” It handed an open goal to Joe Biden – who said that it showed the Trump strategy was simply to “wave the white flag of defeat”. There’s further Covid-related damage for Trump. Mike Pence has been criticised for not wearing a mask on the campaign trail – despite the fact the VP’s own chief of staff Marc Short tested positive for Covid. Media reports claim three other members of Pence staff have also tested positive. Elsewhere, top US infectious disease expert Anthony Fauci told Andrew Marr on Sunday that the world would find out if there’s a working vaccine “by the end of November, early December.”  

On the record

“I think we have to admit that we have misunderstood the mood of the country here.”

Sir Bernard Jenkin concedes the Tories didn’t understand the popularity of Marcus Rashford – or the popularity of keeping kids from hunger.

From the Twitterati

“British diplomats accept that if Biden wins securing a trade deal with UK is unlikely to be high on his agenda.”  

The FT’s Jim Pickard suggests the likelihood of a Biden win is changing No 10’s calculations…

“Downing Street is starting to realise what it means if Biden wins. Brexit will have alienated us from both Europe and the US. We’ll be alone.”

...and Ian Dunt points to the great likelihood of loneliness.

Essential reading

James Moore, The Independent: The odds don’t lie – I’m betting on Joe Biden for president

Ian Hamilton, The Independent: Tory MPs are failing to deflect from the government’s record on child poverty

John Harris, The Guardian: The rest of the country will suffer as long as Westminster holds the purse strings

Anne Applebaum, The Atlantic: You’re not supposed to understand the rumours about Biden

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