Mexico earthquake latest: Colima volcano threat debunked as country reels from aftershocks of Michoacán quake

Scientists have said that three earthquakes occurring on the same date in Mexico years and decades apart is a coincidence.

The alerts for Monday’s incoming earthquake came within the hour of the warning systems being used in a drill to commemorate the previous earthquakes on 19 September in 1985 and 2017.

In 1985, an 8.0 quake struck near the coast of the state of Guerrero, killing at least 9,500 people, according to the Associated Press. In 2017, more than 360 people died in a 7.1 earthquake and on Monday, 19 September 2022, a quake killed at least two people.

US Geological Survey seismologist Paul Earle told the AP that “this is a coincidence”.

“There’s no physical reason or statistical bias toward earthquakes in any given month in Mexico,” he added.

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Coordinación Nacional de Protección Civil urged people on Monday to only “consult official sources” after an earthquake, before adding: “Avoid spreading information that has not been confirmed, as it only creates confusion.”

In Tuesday’s government notice regarding the activity at the Popocatépetl volcano, the authorities said the fall of ash is “probable”.

Recommendations include “cover the nose and mouth with a handkerchief or face mask,” “clean eyes and throat with water,” “avoid contact lenses to reduce eye irritation,” and “close windows or cover them and stay indoors as much as possible”.

The authorities added that “low to intermediate explosive activity” is expected to continue.

According to the Global Volcanism Program at the Smithsonian Institution, “records of activity” at the Popocatépetl volcano “date back to the 14th century and the current eruption period has been ongoing since January 2005 ... recently, activity has consisted of intermittent crater incandescence, frequent ash explosions, and ash emissions”.

US Geological Survey seismologist Paul Earle told the AP that he knew that questions would be asked if three earthquakes on the same date over the course of decades were a pattern.

But the researcher said it was nothing but “a coincidence”.

“There’s no physical reason or statistical bias toward earthquakes in any given month in Mexico,” he added.

The seismologist told the news agency that there’s no particular season or month for major quakes anywhere in the world. But people tend to look for coincidences that appear to be a pattern.

“We knew we’d get this question as soon as it happened,” he said. “Sometimes there are just coincidences.”

Dr Earle said the quake wasn’t linked to the exercise that had occurred an hour before and also had no connection to the quake in Taiwan on Sunday.

According to Laura Velázquez, Mexico’s national Civil Defense Coordinator, the two deaths on Monday were caused by the partial collapse of buildings. Ten people were injured, nine of whom were in the state of Colima and one in the state of Michoacan.

Dozens of schools and health clinics were damaged, Ms Velázquez said on Tuesday, according to the Associated Press. In total, more than 200 buildings were damaged. Most of that damage happened in Colima and Michoacan, with around 20 buildings suffering minor damage in Mexico City.

The coincidence of three earthquakes taking place on the same date has led to a rise in anxiety for many.

Call centre coordinator Jorge Ornelas told the AP that “it’s really strange, but a lot of people already don’t like that day”.

He said many start to worry about a quake as the month of September arrives.

“If we keep thinking that every September 19 it’s going to shake, it’s going to continue happening every year, because what you think is always what happens,” Mr Ornelas, 35, added.

Seismology researcher Xyoli Pérez-Campos at the National Autonomous University of Mexico’s Geophysical Institute told the AP that there’s no physical reason for significant quakes to occur on the same date.

He added that the quake on Monday was prompted by the “interaction of the Cocos plate with the North America plate,” similarly to the earthquake in 1985.

The territory of Mexico runs across parts of five plates.

“The plates break when it’s their time to break,” the researcher said. “What are they going to know about the calendar?”

As the parents of children killed when a school collapsed during Mexico’s 2017 earthquake celebrated a Mass in their memory, the ground began to shake again.

“No, not again! My God, not again!” they shouted when a magnitude 7.6 earthquake rattled the capital Monday, killing two people in the Pacific coast state of Colima.

Three powerful earthquakes have struck Mexico on Sept. 19 — in 1985, 2017 and now 2022. The unlucky coincidence has driven anxiety high for many. The last two quakes also came very shortly after the annual earthquake drill conducted every Sept. 19 to commemorate the devastating 1985 temblor.

Mexico’s national Civil Defense Coordinator Laura Velázquez said Tuesday that the two deaths in Colima were due to parts of buildings collapsing. Ten people were injured -- nine in Colima and one in neighboring Michoacan.

More than 200 buildings were damaged, including dozens of schools and health centers, she said. Most of the damage was in those Pacific states, close to the Michoacan epicenter. Some 20 Mexico City buildings were damaged, but it was minor, she said.

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