Canada election results: Trudeau expected to maintain grip on power in minority government after fraught election against Scheer
Latest updates from a night of relief and political redemption for Justin Trudeau
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Your support makes all the difference.Justin Trudeau is projected to retain power in the Canada's parliamentary elections, with a likely minority government forming after his Liberal Party shed seats in the country's parliament.
After a vicious campaign season known more for its scandals and vicious attacks than policy, the Liberals walked away from Monday's election with 157 seats — just 13 shiy of a majority.
New Democrat leader Jagmeet Singh said he had congratulated Mr Trudeau on winning the most seats and said his party would be a constructive participant in the new parliament.
While it is clearly good news for Mr Trudeau — who has been politically redeemed to some extent after repeated scandal throughout the past year — the sharing of power with the New Democrats will undoubtedly make it difficult to pass legislation in the years ahead.
Conservatives walked away with 121 seats, while Bloc Québécois got 32 seats, and the Green Party got three. The New Democratic Party secured 24 seats.
Mr Trudeau's victory also shows a marked drop in support for the progressive leader, who was swept into power in 2015 promising "real change" in the form of several progressive pledges.
In addition to his scandals, Mr Trudeau has faced criticism for his ability to follow through on those pledges including on the environment, a record that was undercut because he came out in support of the Trans Mountain oil pipeline expansion project.
He also abandoned a federal electoral reform plan, which was a favourite of left-leaning voters.
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CBC News’ Mike Crawley says the province of Ontario was crucial to the Liberal Party’s victory in this election.
He said Mr Trudeau’s party “barely sustained any damaged in Canada’s biggest province”, which helped the Liberals to hold on to their position as the largest party in parliament.
Although the Liberals saw their vote share drop significantly in the Atlantic region and Western Canada, Mr Crawley said, their continued success in Ontario was enough to keep them in power for now.
Canada’s energy industry has seen its worst-case scenario emerge with the Liberals needing the support of left-leaning parties to govern, according to Reuters.
The news agency has noted that two possible supporters of Mr Trudeau’s minority government, the NDP and Green Party, have both pledged to tackle climate change at the expense of Canada’s oil industry.
Tim Pickering, chief executive of Auspice Capital Advisers (a crude oil exchange-traded fund), said:
“This truly is the worst possible outcome. We have got a Liberal minority and the balance of power shifts to the NDP and the Greens, who are completely opposed to any progressive energy policies.”
The energy sector reportedly worries that the long-delayed Trans Mountain expansion project (TMX) could be under threat, as the NDP and Greens both firmly oppose the expansion.
The controversial project, which Mr Trudeau’s government bought for C$4.5bn (approximately £2.7bn), would triple the flow of oil sands crude to the British Columbia coast.
Additional reporting by Reuters
Minority governments are not particularly unusual in Canada – there have been three since 2000 – but they do not tend to last much longer than two years.
That means Mr Trudeau could be facing re-election again soon.
However, one senior Liberal has told Reuters that he expects Mr Trudeau to be reasonably safe for the next two years, in part because many legislators need to serve for another two years to meet the six-year requirement for a parliamentary pension.
The Liberal, who requested anonymity to speak about the issue, said he believes his party will have “a pretty free hand for that period”.
When asked about Mr Trudeau reaching out to the NDP’s Jagmeet Singh to form a government soon, they said: “We’ll see.”
Despite party leaders sounding upbeat last night, all the major parties had a mixed night in this election.
- Mr Trudeau’s Liberals held on to power but found themselves shut out of the province of Alberta and much of western Canada.
- Andrew Scheer claimed his Conservative Party was a “government-in-waiting” after winning the popular vote but could not convert those gains into seats.
- While the NDP could be the kickmakers for a minority government, despite going backwards and losing seats.
The only party that had a clear victory was the Quebec separatist party Bloc Québécois, who gained 22 seats to become the third largest party in parliament.
However, they are unlikely to feature in Mr Trudeau's government.
What is the next step for Conservative leader Andrew Scheer?
His party failed to topple Mr Trudeau’s Liberals, despite winning the popular vote, and lost their deputy party leader, Lisa Raitt, in an
unexpected defeat in Toronto.
Although Mr Scheer was defiant in his concession speech, the disappointing result does put his position as leader of the Conservatives in doubt.
He will be holding a press conference at 1pm Eastern Time (6pm UK time), where we may learn more about his party’s strategy for the coming months.
Here is some post-election analysis from The Globe and Mail’s Laura Stone this morning.
Ms Stone says it is going to be a "difficult few months" for the Liberals as they try to form a stable government.
Doug Ford, the premier of Ontario, has released a statement on the election result.
Mr Ford has congratulated Mr Trudeau on his victory, despite the Canadian prime minister frequently invoking his name negatively during campaign events.
The Globe and Mail has reported that voter turnout dipped to 66 per cent this year, down from 68.5 per cent in 2015’s election.
However, that figure is still higher than the turnout in 2011 and 2008, which saw the lowest voter turnout on record of 58.8 per cent.
Donald Tusk, the president of the European Council, has sent a warm (albeit quite late) message to Mr Trudeau, congratulating him on behalf of the EU.
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