Byelection results - live: Boost for Starmer after Rochdale ‘shambles’ as Labour clinches two major victories

We’ve just had the turnout announced for the Kingswood by-election; 37.11 per cent - which is higher than many were expecting, but still way down on the 71.5 per cent at the 2019 general election.

The turnout in the Wellingborough by-election has fallen dramatically from 2019.

Just 38.1 per cent of the electorate voted amid upset at the Conservatives’ decision to pick Helen Harrison, the partner of ousted Tory MP Peter Bone, to contest the seat.

The turnout here in the 2019 general election was almost double that, at 64.3 per cent.

Labour sources have told Sky News they believe they have won the seat.

Tory candidate in the Kingswood by-election Sam Bromiley is here at the count at Thornbury Leisure Centre.

The leader of the Conservatives on South Gloucestershire Council has focused his campaign on protecting the local green belt from housing.

It’s a hot topic locally with many concerned over a loss of countryside to needed housing - but will it be enough to get people to vote him, we’ll find out soon enough.

Chris Skidmore won the Gloucestershire constituency for the Conservatives at the past four general elections, increasing his share of the vote on each occasion, from 40% in 2010 to 49% in 2015, 55% in 2017 and 56% in 2019.

Before 2010, Labour had won the seat at every general election since 1992.

This week’s by-election was triggered by Mr Skidmore’s resignation as MP in January, in protest at Government legislation to boost North Sea oil and gas drilling.

He had previously announced his intention to stand down at the next general election, when the constituency is being abolished.

Labour came second in the seat at each of the past four general elections and is the main challenger in Thursday’s contest.

To win, the party needs a swing in the share of the vote of 11.4 percentage points.

This is the equivalent of a net change of 12 in every 100 people who voted Conservative in 2019 switching sides.

It is a much smaller swing than the ones achieved by Labour in its recent by-election successes against the Tories, such as 23.9 percentage points at Tamworth, 23.7 points at Selby & Ainsty and 20.5 points at Mid Bedfordshire.

There are six candidates standing in the by-election: Sam Bromiley (Conservative), Andrew Brown (Liberal Democrat), Damien Egan (Labour), Lorraine Francis (Green), Rupert Lowe (Reform) and Nicholas Wood (Ukip).

The abolition of the constituency at the next general election – which has to take place by law no later than January 2025 – means whoever wins the by-election will represent the seat for only a few months.

A Labour source has told The Independent the campaign team are moving from “hopeful to optimistic”, with results of the Wellingborough by-election expected within hours.

Rival parties have conceded that they expect a Labour win, with figures in the Tory camp conceding that the contest was always going to be “tough”.

The MP for North East Somerset has arrived at the count.

We spoke to him. He said he had come for GB News, for which he is a presenter, and because he had a “particular interest” with boundary changes bringing part of this constituency into his at the next general election.

Would he be concerned of the impact if Labour won the Kingswood by-election? He said: “MPs always want people to vote for the party that they represent so with all elections I want people to vote Conservative and I’m very conscious that at by-elections with a 37 per cent turnout events are very different from a general election.

“I did quite alot of campaigning for the by-election in the part that will become part of North East Somerset and there’s not alot of enthusiasm for the Tories, but there isn’t alot of enthusiasm for Keir Starmer.”

We are 15 minutes away from finding out who has won the Kingswood by-election

Reform UK’s Ben Habib has claimed the Nigel Farage-backed party “won the air war” in the Wellingborough by-election.

The former MEP said he expects Labour to have won the seat, but said Reform made the biggest impact across the country.

“Whatever the outcome, we've made big inroads through this by-election and, if I may say so, I think to the extent that there was an air war, we absolutely crucified both the Labour Party and Tory party,” Mr Habib told The Independent.

He added: “Nationally, the impression we made in this by election already has been much bigger.”

Mr Habib said he will stand in Wellingborough again, having “developed an affinity to the people”.

Reform UK is expected to have won more votes than the difference between Labour and the Tories in Kingswood - helping tip Rishi Sunak’s party to a devastating loss.

With hours to go until the result is announced, Labour expects to have clinched the seat - vacated by former Tory MP Chris Skidmore.

Sources expect Reform to have picked up enough of the vote to have effectively deprived the Conservatives of a win.