Polling guru John Curtice warns Rishi Sunak is in ‘deep electoral trouble’ after by-election disaster

Top polling guru Sir John Curtice has sent the Conservatives a stark warning following their disaster double by-election defeat, stating the party is in “deep, deep electoral trouble”.

Sir John told the BBC that although the 21-point drop in Kingswood is in line with what the party are currently suffering in the opinion polls, it is the Wellingborough result of 37-38 points that is “the biggest Tory loss the Conservatives have ever managed to suffer in a post-war by-election”.

The pollster acknowledged that the “circumstances around Peter Bone’s downfall” may have added to the losses, but that “this morning, we are still looking at a government that, at the moment, is staring defeat in the face”.

Sir John said: “[This] confirms that the Conservatives are still in deep, deep electoral trouble.

“The 21 point drop in support in Kingswood in line with the 19-20 point drop that they're currently suffering in the opinion polls.

“The 37 to 38 points drop in Wellingborough is actually the biggest Tory loss the Conservatives have ever manage to suffer in a post war by election.”

He added: “Now, it may well be that the circumstances surrounding Peter Bone’s downfall and his replacement by his partner perhaps added to the lead party’s woes in Wellingborough, but there is no gainsaying the fact that this morning we are still looking at a government that, at the moment, is staring defeat in the face of the next general election.”

Mr Bone received a six-week suspension from the Commons when an inquiry found he had subjected a staff member to bullying and sexual misconduct.

The Conservatives faced two crushing by-election results overnight, as Labour overturned huge Tory majorities in Kingswood and Wellingborough.

In the Kingswood contest, Damien Egan overturned an 11,000 Tory majority, winning with a majority of 2,501 votes, while the Wellingborough by-election saw disgraced former Conservative MP Peter Bone replaced with Labour’s Gen Kitchen, who secured 13,844 votes to beat the Tories’ by more than 6,000.

The back-to-back losses place more pressure on Rishi Sunak, as strong performances in both constituencies by the right-wing challenger party Reform UK are likely to embolden party critics about the prime minister’s direction.

The results come just hours after official figures show that Britain has fallen into a recession, after economic growth had stalled as gross domestic product (GDP) fell by 0.3 per cent in the fourth quarter, following a decline of 0.1 per cent in the previous three months.

Tory former business secretary Sir Jacob Rees-Mogg said the Conservatives needed to “learn from the result” in Kingswood.

He said: “I think we should learn from this result and look at what happened with the Reform Party vote. Conservative Party votes are most likely to come from people who stay at home or who voted Reform.”

He suggested the party cut taxes, pull back from net zero measures and “take more of the advantages of Brexit”.

Conservative Party chairman Richard Holden has said both by-election results were “very disappointing”.

Mr Holden told Sky News: “Very disappointing results – no need to shy away from that – in both Kingswood and Wellingborough.

“I think one of the most disappointing things for me though is the turnout in the by-elections was so significantly down compared to the previous general elections in both seats. I want to see people actively participating in democracy.

“I think that shows we’ve got a lot to do to get people out there and enthused to vote again, and probably the Opposition have a similar challenge.”

He added: “I think we’ve got to look at both these by-elections in the context in which they happened as well.

“We had an MP in Kingswood who stood down and also obviously in Wellingborough we had a parliamentary investigation, which led to a recall petition which led to an MP being forced to stand down.

“Not ideal circumstances for any form of by-election for any party.”