Kemi Badenoch's Tories slip to third behind Nigel Farage's Reform UK in new poll

The Conservatives have slipped into third place for the first time in the latest weekly Techne tracker poll for The Independent, leading to new questions over Kemi Badenoch’s leadership.

The findings come as Reform UK plans to take the fight to the Tory leader’s Essex North West constituency on Friday evening to mark the fifth anniversary of Brexit.

According to the poll, the Conservatives lost one point this week going to 23 per cent, Reform UK remained at 24 per cent and Labour, in a rare boost, picked up one point moving to 26 per cent.

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The Lib Dems also were down one to 12 per cent and the Green Party was unchanged at 7 per cent.

Nigel Farage told The Independent that this was just the beginning of a slide for the Tories.

He said: “They will start to fall quickly, they already are in Wales.”

Other recent polling data suggests Conservative support is being held up by higher numbers in the southeast and south of England. However, for a third week in a row, the Techne poll suggests around a quarter (24 per cent) of Conservative voters from the 2024 election have switched to Reform UK.

Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo told The Independent the survey this week is “very bad news” for Ms Badenoch and the Tories.

She said: “Our regular Westminster tracker poll this week continues to reinforce the trend that the UK very much has three main political parties competing for power.

“For Sir Keir Starmer and his Labour Party there is some better news after a number of weeks slipping back. However this is not the case for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives. Her party slips back one point in national vote share down to 23 per cent.

“With Nigel Farage’s Reform UK staying steady on 24 per cent of national vote share this means the Conservatives drop down to third in our polling. This third-place position for Badenoch and her party is the first time that the Techne UK poll has ever put the Conservatives in such a lowly position.

“So this week better news for Labour and Reform UK but conversely the Conservatives continue to struggle.”

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While the Tories still poll better with voting age categories above 55, Reform has stronger ratings with voters younger than 55.

Last week Ms Morizzo suggested a deal between the two parties would be “unassailable” but with the Reform rally in Ms Badenoch’s seat tonight that seems like a distant prospect.

The findings come as some Tory MPs have been questioning Ms Badenoch’s strategy with a refusal to roll out new policies.

This followed a flat performance by the Conservative leader in PMQs this week and anger over the shadow foreign secretary Dame Priti Patel defending net migration levels of 1.2 million during the last Tory government on Thursday.

Her comments drew criticism from Labour, with a party spokesperson saying the Conservatives were “out of touch with reality”, adding Dame Priti “seems proud of her central role in the Tory open-border experiment”.

A spokesman for Ms Badenoch later appeared to rebuke Dame Priti, saying the Conservative Party under her leadership “will tell the truth about the mistakes we made”.

The spokesman said: “While the last Conservative government may have tried to control numbers, we did not deliver.”

Dame Priti subsequently clarified her comments, saying the UK’s immigration system was “not fit for purpose” and she was “not happy about the high numbers while the Conservatives were in government”.

Migration is the subject that Reform UK have played heaviest on in their recent move up in the polls to contend near the top at the expense of the Conservatives.

One source noted: “A lot of people absolutely aghast over Priti’s interview last night and direction of the party in general.”