James Cleverly: Conservatism with a smile or just an empty suit?

If the Tory leadership contest was based on pure likability then James Cleverly would have long ago been the runaway winner to take the job off Rishi Sunak.

While his rivals are certainly not the monsters portrayed by social media, there is no doubt when it comes to sociability, small talk and making you just feel good about yourself, Mr Cleverly is streets ahead of most politicians.

It is no surprise really that the former foreign secretary and home secretary’s political hero is the former actor turned one of the greatest US presidents, Ronald Reagan. He even quoted in his conference speech Reagan’s famous “It’s morning in America again” line, a brand of optimism, hope and, yes, as Cleverly said, “conservatism with a smile”.

There is no doubting he possesses a high degree of emotional intelligence. But unfortunately for him, it is the basic sort of intelligence that his critics claim he lacks, with the regular jibe that the name Cleverly is some sort of oxymoron.

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One veteran Tory MP regularly disparagingly likens him to a “golf club bore... the sort of person you meet at the club-house bar but don’t want to play 18 holes with”.

Others have used the term “vacuous” and, perhaps most damaging of all, “an empty suit”; a man who believes in little and stands for less.

Much of this is the sort of waspish commentary that is typical between party factions in parliament where rivalries and personal ambition always come before facts. However, the two images of Cleverly explain why he is now favourite to win the Tory contest but also why he may struggle to bring his party together.

To understand the support and criticism for Cleverly it is useful to understand what has happened to him in this leadership contest. While he has been a name bandied around to replace Rishi Sunak for some time, his claims that he made a decision at the last minute to stand are genuine.

Indeed, there were suggestions before the election that Cleverly had been eyeing a job outside politics. But when it came to the crunch he told The Independent: “I knew in my heart that I would regret not standing.”

But even going into the contest there were persistent question marks over whether he would garner enough support from MPs. This really hit home in the second round when his supporters stayed the same at 21 despite him apparently gaining at least two extra backers. It meant he went into the conference as the overwhelming favourite to be ditched in the penultimate parliamentary round.

In 24 hours he went from 11/1 least favourite to 2/1 second favourite after a speech which was met with a huge ovation and without doubt raised the spirits of a battered Tory membership.

His appeal to be “normal again” actually resonated, but he also dealt with some of his criticism by offering optimism, a call for unity and even the odd policy, such as scrapping stamp duty on buying homes.

In a generally disappointing round of speeches, he was the standout performer. His rise to the top with MPs proved they had spotted a potential winner.

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However, he will still have to persuade party members that he is better than the other candidate selected by MPs. Here his record as a minister will be crucial.

In the positive column is his loyalty. He refused to resign from Boris Johnson’s and Liz Truss’s governments even as others – notably Kemi Badenoch – fled. He did not brief against Sunak and stayed loyal when Robert Jenrick quit the Home Office in a damaging resignation.

When Cleverly speaks of unity he does so with some integrity. He may well end up with an endorsement from Johnson as a result, and was at the former prime minister’s book launch on Tuesday night.

Critics, though, accuse him of blind loyalty and being unable to act when change is needed. He is also portrayed now as the “Sunak continuity candidate” – a damaging label given the historically bad election result the Tories suffered in July.

More important is what he actually did as a minister.

As foreign secretary he certainly charmed other foreign ministers, especially US secretary of state Antony Blinken and his former French counterpart Catherine Colonna. He repaired relations which had suffered because of Brexit and Johnson’s stint in the Foreign Office.

But all too often he was accused of just taking the policy put to him by his officials and not pushing back. This was particularly true on his reluctance to take a tough stance on China or Iran.

In the last week, though, it was his past negotiations over the Chagos Islands and apparent willingness to accept handing them over to Mauritius – which Labour has now completed – that was held up as an example of why he was “a liability”, as one MP put it.

His response to those who say he will not take a stand is to point out that he was a Brexiteer before the 2016 referendum and before it became fashionable among the Tories. Ironic then that Brexiteers are much more willing to support his rivals because he was seen as too pragmatic in his views.

But perhaps the biggest issue is his propensity for off-colour humour. Not least joking about giving his wife Susie (whom he adores) a rape drug at a Downing Street event with journalists, and that 2015 interview with John Pienaar where he admitted to watching porn and smoking cannabis. Supporters though say this shows that he is at least a normal human being with a sense of humour.

In the end though, Cleverly may win simply because he is likeable. After an election where the Tories lost because they were hated and had lost connection with voters, Cleverly’s conservatism with a smile is a very appealing antidote to their problems.