Farage’s Reform UK in poll surge as Labour loses support after Starmer reset

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK has made a dramatic three-point jump in the polls in a week.

The latest Techne UK tracker poll for The Independent appears to confirm a trend that voters are moving towards his brand of nationalist populism.

The polling of 1,644 voters took place in the wake of Sir Keir Starmer’s reset speech at Pinewood Studios on Thursday and appears to suggest it failed to improve confidence in the Labour government.

Support for Labour was down one point to 27 per cent - the lowest level since Jeremy Corbyn was leader – while Reform UK was up three points to 21 per cent. In addition, trust in Sir Keir’s government being on the right track fell four points from 33 per cent to 29 per cent in just a week.

There was worse news for Tory leader Kemi Badenoch, who has been on a visit to Washington DC this week, with her party down two points to 25 per cent.

open image in gallery

The Liberal Democrats’ leader Sir Ed Davey’s bid for Christmas No 1 does not seem to have helped his party’s standing – it also slipped back one point to 12 per cent – while the Green Party was up one to 7 per cent.

The shift appears to reflect findings in other polls which in the last week have put Reform UK as high as 24 per cent in second place above Labour, according to the polling company Find Out Now.

Mr Farage told The Independent: “The momentum for Reform is growing quickly.”

His deputy leader Richard Tice added: “We now have three parties polling regularly in the twenties. We have moved away from a two-party system.”

The party has been boosted this week by the defections of former Tory MP Dame Andrea Jenkyns and Conservative Home founder Tim Montgomerie.

open image in gallery

Reform UK claims there are more defections to come, including former and current MPs.

Yesterday the billionaire Elon Musk denied reports he is planning to donate $100 million to the party, but his response did not rule out another amount.

Techne UK chief executive Michela Morizzo believes Sir Keir’s misfiring government and the defections from the Tories are hitting the two traditional main parties.

She said: “The tracker this week provides several hints and suggestions. Keir Starmer's Plan for Change speech does not warm the spirits and does not reward, causing Labour a drop by 1 per cent.

“Furthermore, the announcement of real or presumed defections from the Conservative Party to Reform UK, the announcement of a widespread territorial organisation and the possible massive donation from Elon Musk has upset the balance on the right, causing Reform UK to grow by three points. This has affected the result of the Conservatives too, that drops by two.”

She added: “This essentially means two things: the first is that it does not matter so much whether the news released is true or not. The difference was made by the headlines and above all by the feeling of a party - Reform UK - in good health, organised and very active.

“Will this situation last? It is impossible to say, as we need to see how the Conservative Party will react to what is happening, and above all what its plans will be for the coming months.”