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Brexit news: Bank of England predicts post-transition hit to UK economy as deadline looms in EU trade talks

Follow events as they happened in Westminster and beyond

Peter Stubley,Zoe Tidman
Thursday 05 November 2020 16:19 EST
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Justice Secretary Robert Buckland says he's confident a hard border can be avoided in Ireland

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The Bank of England has said it would pump £150bn into the UK economy and warned that even with a trade deal the lack of preparedness for Brexit would cut 1 per cent from GDP in the first quarter of 2021.

Its Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) based its assessment on the UK striking a Canada-style free trade deal, the prime minister's preferred outcome in the talks with the EU.

With the clock running down before the UK leaves the single market and customs union at the end of the year, significant gaps remained between the two sides in post-Brexit trade negotiations.

The EU’s chief negotiator Michel Barnier said there were still "very serious divergences" after two weeks of intensive Brexit discussions broke up without agreement on Wednesday evening. His UK counterpart David Frost said that they were still working to “find solutions that fully respect UK sovereignty.”

Talks were set to resume on Sunday but major sticking points remained on the “level playing field” regulations, fisheries and a dispute-settling mechanism.

Away from Brexit, Boris Johnson also came under fire from former cabinet minister Rory Stewart, who branded the prime minister an “amoral character” and “the most accomplished liar in public life”.

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Attorney general refuses to condemn attacks on ‘lefty lawyers’

In the Commons this morning, the attorney general faced questions over recent attacks on "lefty laywers" and “doogoders” by the prime minister and home secretary.

While stating she was "proud" of the legal profession, Suella Braverman MP repeatedly avoided calls to condemn the comments.

“Sadly from time to time there are those who take advantage of their position and abuse the court process and in those instances to pretend that lawyers are beyond criticism is not only naive but does the public a great disservice,” she said.

"As a friend and an ally of the profession I know the vast majority uphold the highest standards but we can't deny there is a minority who don't."

Last month senior legal figures called for an apology:

Senior lawyers accuse Boris Johnson and Priti Patel of endangering their safety

Retired judges call on PM and home secretary ‘to behave honourably by apologising for their display of hostility’

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 10:33
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BT facing first national strike since 1994

Telecoms giant BT is facing the threat of the first national strike in more than 20 years in a dispute over a series of issues including jobs, pay and conditions.

The Communication Workers Union (CWU) announced it is holding a consultative ballot among its members which could lead to a vote on whether to take industrial action.

The union claimed it is taking the move because of an "increasingly aggressive" approach from management. Voting will start later this month and close on December 10.

General secretary Dave Ward said: "This is the most important vote our members have ever been asked to cast since joining the company.

"This is about job security, pay and grading, rights at work and the future direction of the company.

"After decades of industrial stability, we are now seeing BT Group embark on a vicious programme of compulsory redundancies, site closures and attacks on pay, terms and conditions. They are putting profit before people.

"We know many senior managers are saying some members will not be impacted by their plans - nothing could be further from the truth. If we stand by and let the company implement these changes without serious opposition, then the floodgates will open."

PA

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 10:17
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The lack of preparedness for Brexit apparently extends to the government’s plans for border checks in January - given that the UK may lose access to the  EU’s Schengen Information System (SIS II).

Yesterday Yvette Cooper, the chair of the Home Affairs Committee, asked officials how they would exclude “foreign criminals” from Britain without it.

“No answer”, she tweeted.

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 09:56
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Sainsbury’s cuts 3,500 jobs

More bad economic news as Sainsbury’s cuts 3,500 jobs despite a boom in sales during the pandemic.

The redundancies are at Argos stores and the supermarket’s fish, meat and deli counters amid a switch to online shopping - which now accounts for 40 per cent of sales compared to 19 per cent a year ago.

Meanwhile US manufacturer Caterpillar is planning to cut up to 700 jobs in Northern Ireland, affecting workers at its plant in Larne, County Antrim.

Sainsbury’s cuts 3,500 jobs

Thousands of workers on deli counters and in standalone Argos stores to be made redundant as supermarket chain shifts business model to deal with increased online sales

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 09:42
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Boris Johnson to assure US over Irish border

The UK government is set to "assure" the US over its commitment to the Northern Ireland peace agreement, in light of a looming Joe Biden victory in the country's presidential election.

During the campaign the Democratic nominee blasted Boris Johnson's policy on the Irish border, warning that "any trade deal between the US and UK must be contingent upon respect for the agreement and preventing the return of a hard border".

Boris Johnson to 'assure' US over Northern Ireland border as Joe Biden victory looms

Democratic candidate had warned trade deal was dependent on respecting EU Brexit deal

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 09:30
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Did UK pause talks to wait for US election result?

The EU believe the UK broke off talks yesterday to wait for the result of the US election to be confirmed, according to reports.

It is thought that Boris Johnson would prefer the re-election of Donald Trump, given the stance of Joe Biden in relation to the Good Friday agreement and Brexit.

If Mr Biden is confirmed as the next president, the UK may feel under increased pressure to make concessions on the major issues with the EU, including fishing and the “level playing field”.

Here’s our guide to what the result of the US election result could mean for Brexit:

What the Trump v Biden result could mean for Brexit

Analysis: A Joe Biden win could re-write the political rulebook around a US-UK trade deal, Jon Stone writes

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 09:19
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UK seeks to reassure Biden over Brexit

Justice minister Robert Buckland said earlier that the UK wanted to assure any new US administration that it would protect the Northern Ireland peace agreement in trade negotiations with the European Union.

He was asked whether he was anxious about a trade deal with America given Joe Biden’s criticism of Boris Johnson’s threat to breach the withdrawal deal he signed with the EU.  Mr Biden said: “Any trade deal between the US and UK must be contingent upon respect for the agreement and preventing the return of a hard border. Period.”

Justice Secretary Robert Buckland says he's confident a hard border can be avoided in Ireland

Mr Buckland told Sky News: “If there is a new administration I can assure them that that will be very much at the heart of what we wish to do, and any trade agreement will, of course, respect that.”

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 09:06
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Here’s a rough guide to what’s coming up later today:

9.30am: Office for National Statistics release on the coronavirus hit to the UK economy.

10am: Public Accounts Committee hears evidence from senior officials on the Bounce Back Loan Scheme.

10.30am: Senior managers from Boohoo, H&M, TikTok, The North Face and Nike appear before MPs to answer questions about exploitation of Uighurs in China’s Xinjiang region.

11am: The latest weekly test and trace figures for England are released.

12 noon: Rishi Sunak statement to Commons on support for businesses and workers.

12.15pm: Nicola Sturgeon’s daily briefing in Scotland.

12.15pm: Welsh Government press conference with economic minister Ken Skates.

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 08:55
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Daily politics briefing

Today’s politics briefing from the Independent’s Adam Forrest leads on Rishi Sunak’s plans to extend furlough payments across the UK.

The Chancellor is set to address the Commons on the government’s support for businesses and households later.

It also notes that Brexit talks are expected to resume in London from Sunday, despite the recent gloomy statements about the gaps between the EU and UK positions.

Boris Johnson and European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen are set to hold emergency talks if the two sides are still deadlocked at the end of next week. 

Rishi Sunak set to extend furlough across UK | Your daily politics briefing

The chancellor is expected to make clear that payments will extend to future lockdowns in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, writes Adam Forrest

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 08:44
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Bank warns of Brexit effect - even with trade deal

The Bank of England’s latest monetary policy report also warns that the UK economy is likely to be damaged by Brexit - even if a free trade deal is agreed with the UK.

It states that “trade in both goods and services are expected to be lower” than before and that “this reduction in trade with the EU, as well as lower foreign direct investment, is expected to weigh on UK output.”

The bank’s monetary policy committee says that the reduction in exports is expected to reduce GDP by around 1 per cent in the first quarter of 2021.

It adds that lack of preparedness for the changes after 1 January means that “trade and activity will be temporarily lower in the near term as firms adjust to new arrangements.”

Peter Stubley5 November 2020 08:29

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